Abstract
Wetlands are ecologically important due to their hydrologic attributes and their role as ecotones between terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. Based on a 2-year study in the Yellow River Delta Wetland and a Markov-chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation, we discovered temporal and spatial relationships between soil water content and three representative plant species (Phragmites australis (Cav.) Trin. ex Steud., Suaeda salsa (Linn.) Pall, and Tamarix chinensis Lour.). We selected eight indices (biodiversity, biomass, and the uptake of TN, TP, K, Ca, Mg, and Na) at three scales (community, single plant, and micro-scale) to assess ecological risk. We used the ecological value at risk (EVR) model, based on the three scales and eight indices, to calculate EVR and generate a three-level classification of ecological risk using MCMC simulation. The high-risk areas at a community scale were near the Bohai Sea. The high-risk areas at a single-plant scale were near the Bohai Sea and along the northern bank of the Yellow River. At a micro-scale, we found no concentration of high-risk areas. The results will provide a foundation on which the watershed’s planners can allocate environmental flows and guide wetland restoration.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Alexander GJ (2002) Economic implication of using a mean-VaR model for portfolio selection: a comparison with mean-variance analysis. J Econ Dyn Control 26:1159–1193
Bai JH, Wang QQ, Zhang KJ, Cui BS, Liu XH, Huang LB, Xiao R, Gao HF (2010) Trace element contaminations of roadside soils from two cultivated wetlands after abandonment in a typical plateau lakeshore, China. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 25:91–97
Bouma JJ, Francois D, Troch P (2005) Risk assessment and water management. Environ Model Softw 20:141–151
Brix KV, Keithly J, Santore RC, DeForest DK, Tobiason S (2010) Ecological risk assessment of zinc from stormwater runoff to an aquatic ecosystem. Sci Total Environ 408:1824–1832
Cai YP, Huang GH, Tan Q, Chen B (2009) Identification of optimal strategies for improving eco-resilience to floods in ecologically vulnerable regions of a wetland. Ecol Model 222:360–369
Cambardella CA, Moorman TB, Novak JM (1994) Field-scale variability of soil properties in Central Iowa soils. Soil Sci Soc Am J 58:1501–1511
Chen CY, Hathaway KM, Thompson DG, Folt CL (2008) Multiple stressor effects of herbicide, pH, and food on wetland zooplankton and a larval amphibian. Ecotoxicol Environ Safe 71:209–218
Dimitriou E, Karaouzas I, Sarantakos K, Zacharias I, Bogdanos K, Diapoulis A (2008) Groundwater risk assessment at a heavily industrialised catchment and the associated impacts on a peri-urban wetland. J Environ Manag 88:526–538
Dowd K (1998) Beyond value at risk: the new science of risk management. Wiley & Sons, New York
Gao F, Luo XJ, Yang ZF, Wang XM, Mai BX (2009) Brominated flame retardants, polychlorinated biphenyls and organochlorine pesticides in bird eggs from the Yellow River Delta, North China. Environ Sci Technol 43:6956–6962
He Q, Cui BS, Zhao XS, Fu HL, Liao XL (2009) Relationships between salt marsh vegetation distribution/diversity and soil chemical factors in the Yellow River Estuary, China. Acta Ecol Sinica 29:676–687 (in Chinese)
Huber NP, Bachmann D, Petry U, Bless J, Arranz-Becker O, Altepost A, Kufeld M, Pahlow M, Lennartz G, Romich M, Fries J, Schumann AH, Hill PB, Schüttrumpf H, Kongeter J (2009) A concept for a risk-based decision support system for the identification of protection measures against extreme flood events. Hydrol Wasserbewirts 53:154–159
Ji GD, Sun TH, Ni JR (2007) Impact of heavy oil-polluted soils on reed wetlands. Ecol Eng 29:272–279
Liu CM, Zhang SF (2002) Drying up of the Yellow River: its impacts and countermeasures. Mitig Adapt Strategies Glob Chang 7:203–214
Morgan Guaranry Trust Company (1996). Riskmetrics technical document, 4th edn. New York
Nabulo G, Oryem Origa H, Nasinyama GW, Cole D (2008) Assessment of Zn, Cu, Pb and Ni contamination in wetland soils and plants in the Lake Victoria basin. Int J Environ Sci Technol 5:65–74
Ni JR, Xue A (2003) Application of artificial neural network to the rapid feedback of potential ecological risk in flood diversion zone. Eng Appl Artif Intell 16:105–119
Nicolosi V, Cancelliere A, Rossi G (2009) Reducing risk of shortages due to drought in water supply systems using genetic algorithms. Irrig Drain 58:171–188
Overesch M, Rinklebe J, Broll G, Neue HU (2007) Metals and arsenic in soils and corresponding vegetation at Central Elbe river floodplains (Germany). Environ Pollut 145:800–812
Pascoe GA (1993) Wetland risk assessment. Environ Toxicol Chem 12:2293–2307
Pollard J, Cizdziel J, Stave K, Reid M (2007) Selenium concentrations in water and plant tissues of a newly formed arid wetland in Las Vegas, Nevada. Environ Monit Assess 135:447–457
Powell RL, Kimerle RA, Coyle GT, Best GR (1997) Ecological risk assessment of a wetland exposed to boron. Environ Toxicol Chem 16:2409–2414
Rumbold DG, Lange TR, Axelrad DM, Atkeson TD (2008) Ecological risk of methylmercury in Everglades National Park, Florida, USA. Ecotoxicology 17:632–641
Shi HH, Li ZZ, Li WD (2004) Model of EVR of risk management in regional ecosystem and its application. Acta Bot Boreali-Occidentalia Sinica 24:542–545 (in Chinese)
Smith SM, Gawlik DE, Rutchey K, Crozier GE, Gray S (2003) Assessing drought-related ecological risk in the Florida Everglades. J Environ Manag 68:355–366
Speelmans M, Vanthuyne DRJ, Lock K, Hendrickx F, Du LG, Tack FMG, Janssen CR (2007) Influence of flooding, salinity and inundation time on the bioavailability of metals in wetlands. Sci Total Environ 380:144–153
Srinivasan A, Shah A (2000) Improved techniques for using Monte Carlo in VAR estimation. National Stock Exchange Research Initiative, Working Paper 16
Sun T, Yang ZF, Cui BS (2008) Critical environmental flows to support integrated ecological objectives for the Yellow River Estuary, China. Water Resour Manag 22:973–989
Sun T, Yang ZF, Shen ZY, Zhao R (2009) Environmental flows for the Yangtze Estuary based on salinity objectives. Commun Nonlinear Sci Numer Simul 14:959–971
Suntornvongsaul K, Burke DJ, Hamerlynck EP, Hahn D (2007) Fate and effects of heavy metals in salt marsh sediments. Environ Pollut 149:79–91
Webby RB, Adamson PT, Boland J, Howlett PG, Metcalfe AV, Piantadosi J (2007) The Mekong—applications of value at risk (VAR) and conditional value at risk (CVAR) simulation to the benefits, costs and consequences of water resources development in a large river basin. Ecol Model 201:89–96
Xiao DN, Hu YM, Li XZ (2001) Landscape ecological research on delta wetlands around Bohai Sea. Science Press, Beijing (in Chinese)
Xie T, Liu XH, Sun T (2011) The effects of groundwater table and flood irrigation strategies on soil water and salt dynamics and reed water use in the Yellow River Delta, China. Ecol Model 222:241–252
Yang W, Yang ZF (2010) An interactive fuzzy satisfying approach for sustainable water management in the Yellow River Delta, China. Water Resour Manag 24:1273–1284
Yang ZF, Sun T, Cui BS, Chen B, Chen GQ (2009a) Environmental flow requirements for integrated water resources allocation in the Yellow River Basin, China. Commun Nonlinear Sci Numer Simul 14:2469–2481
Yang ZF, Wang LL, Niu JF, Wang JY, Shen ZY (2009b) Pollution assessment and source identifications of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in sediments of the Yellow River Delta, a newly born wetland in China. Environ Monit Assess 158:561–571
Zong XY, Liu GH, Qiao YH, Cao MC, Huang C (2008) Dynamic changes of wetland landscape pattern in the Yellow River delta based on GIS and RS. In: Li G, Jia Z, Fu Z (eds) Proceedings of information technology and environmental system sciences. Publishing House of Electronics Industry, Beijing, pp 1114–1118
Acknowledgments
This work was supported by the State Key Program of National Natural Science of China (Grant No. 50939001), and the National Basic Research Program of China (973) (Grant No. 2010CB951104).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Qin, Y., Yang, Z. & Yang, W. Ecological risk assessment for water scarcity in China’s Yellow River Delta Wetland. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 25, 697–711 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-011-0479-3
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-011-0479-3