Abstract
Given the important role of land ecosystem in social-economic progress at regional, national, and international scale and concurrent degradation of land ecosystems under rapid urbanization, a systematic diagnosis of land ecological security (eco-security) for sustainable development is needed. A catastrophe model for land ecological security assessment was developed in order to overcome the disadvantages in subjectivity and complexity of the currently used assessment methods. The catastrophe assessment index system was divided into hierarchical sub-systems under the pressure-state-response framework. The catastrophe model integrated multiple assessment indices of land eco-security according to the inherent contradictions and relative importance of indices without calculating weights. Specifically, membership degree of higher level index was calculated based on the membership degrees of lower level indices that were subjective to suitable model, such as cusp, fold, swallowtail and butterfly model. This model was applied to evaluate the state of land eco-security in Shanghai. Mann–Kendall’s test was utilized to characterize its temporal trend between 1999 and 2008. Significant downward trend was identified for land eco-security, in terms of pressure sub-index, state sub-index, response sub-index and synthetic index. All these implied that land ecosystem conditions were not optimistic for Shanghai and such situation should draw the attention of policy makers. The calculation procedure presented in this paper does not require a high level of technical expertise to determine the membership degree, making it simple and operational. Being applicable to similar land ecosystems, the catastrophe model is thus believed to provide an alternative approach to land eco-security assessment.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Barunik J, Vosvrda M (2009) Can a stochastic cusp catastrophe model explain stock market crashes? J Econ Dynam Contr 33:1824–1836
Chan RCK, Shimou Y (1999) Urbanization and sustainable metropolitan development in China: patterns, problems and prospects. GeoJournal 49:269–277
Cun C, Vilagines R (1997) Time series analysis on chlorides, nitrates, ammonium and dissolved oxygen concentrations in the Seine river near Paris. Sci Total Environ 208:59–69
Darwin R, Tsigas M, Lewandrowski J, Raneses A (1996) Land use and cover in ecological economics. Ecol Econ 17:157–181
Gao J, Zhang X, Jiang Y, Ou X, He D, Shi J (2007) Key issues on watershed ecological security assessment. Sci China Ser B 52:251–261
García M, Oyonarte C, Villagarcía L, Contreras S, Domingo F, Puigdefábregas J (2008) Monitoring land degradation risk using ASTER data: the non-evaporative fraction as an indicator of ecosystem function. Remote Sens Environ 112:3720–3736
Honson M, Marvin S (2009) ‘Urban Ecological Security’: a new urban paradigm? Int J Urban Reg Res 33:193–215
Linstone HA, Turoff M (1975) The Delphi method: techniques and applications. Addison-Wesley Publishing Company, Reading, MA
Long H, Liu Y, Wu X, Dong G (2009) Spatio-temporal dynamic patterns of farmland and rural settlements in Su-Xi-Chang region: implications for building a new countryside in coastal China. Land Use Policy 26:322–333
Mann HB (1945) Nonparametric tests against trend. Econometrica 13:245–259
Mann F (2009) Institutional causes of urban and rural sprawl in Switzerland. Land Use Policy 26:919–924
Mark LS (2006) Threat level green: conceding ecology for security in eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union. Global Environ Change 16:400–422
Mische PM (1998) Global issues series: ecological security & the UN system: past, present, future. Global Education Associations, New York
Poston T, Ian S (1978) Catastrophe theory and application. Lord, Pitman
Salvati L, Bajocco S (2011) Land sensitivity to desertification across Italy: past, present, and future. Appl Geogr 31:223–231
Schreiber FA, Baiguera M, Bortolotto G, Caglioti V (1997) A study of the dynamic behaviour of some workload allocation algorithms by means of catastrophe theory. J Syst Architect 43:605–624
Schreurs MA, Pirages D (1998) Ecological security in Northeast Asia. Yonsei University Press, Seoul
Shanghai Bureau of Statistics (2000–2009) Shanghai statistical yearbook. China Statistics Press, Beijing, China (In Chinese)
Shi Y, Liu Y, He J (2003) Further study on some questions of catastrophe evaluation method. Eng J Wuhan Univ 36:132–136 (In Chinese, with English abstract)
Sinkule B, Ortolano L (1995) Implementing environmental policy in China. Praeger, Westport, London
Su S, Zhang Q, Zhang Z, Zhi J, Wu J (2010a) Rural settlement expansion and paddy soil loss across an ex-urbanizing watershed in eastern coastal China during market transition. Reg Environ Change. doi:10.1007/s10113-010-0197-2
Su S, Chen X, DeGloria SD, Wu J (2010b) Integrative fuzzy set pair model for land ecological security assessment: a case study of Xiaolangdi Reservoir Region, China. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 24:639–647
Su S, Li D, Zhang Q, Xiao R, Huang F, Wu J (2011) Temporal trend and source apportionment of water pollution in different functional zones of Qiantang River, China. Water Res 45:1781–1795
Thom R (1975) Structural stability and morphogenesis. W.A. Benjamin Inc, Reading, MA
Vadrevu KP, Cardina J, Hitzhusen F et al (2008) Case study of an integrated framework for quantifying agroecosystem health. Ecosystems 11:283–306
Wang M, Webber M, Finlayson B, Barnett J (2008) Rural industries and water pollution in China. J Environ Manage 86:648–659
Wang W, Liu S, Zhang S, Chen J (2011) Assessment of a model of pollution disaster in near-shore coastal waters based on catastrophe theory. Ecol Model 222:307–312
Weidlich W, Huebner H (2008) Dynamics of political opinion formation including catastrophe theory. J Econ Behav Organ 67:1–26
Wessels KJ, Prince SD, Frost PE, van Zyl D (2004) Assessing the effects of human-induced land degradation in the former homelands of northern South Africa with a 1 km AVHRR NDVI time-series. Remote Sens Environ 91:47–67
Westing AH (1989) The environmental component of comprehensive security. Bull Peace Propos 20:129–134
Woodstock AER, Poston T (1974) A geometrical study of the elementary catastrophes, Springer Lecture Notes in Math, vol. 373. Springer-Verlag, New York
Xiong Y, Zeng G, Chen G et al (2007) Combining AHP with GIS in synthetic evaluation of eco-environment quality—a case study of Hunan Province, China. Ecol Model 209:97–109
Zeeman EC (1976) Catastrophe theory. Sci Am 234:65–83
Zhang Q, Xu C, Tao H, Jiang T, Chen Y (2010) Climate changes and their impacts on water resources in the arid regions: a case study of the Tarim River basin, China. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 24:349–358
Zhao Y, Zou X, Cheng H et al (2006) Assessing the ecological security of the Tibetan plateau: methodology and a case study for Lhaze County. J Environ manage 80:120–131
Acknowledgments
We thank Editor-in-chief George Christakos and two anonymous reviewers for providing constructive comments and suggestions. This work was partly supported by the National Key Project Grant (2008ZX07101-006-01) and Emerging Talent Project of Zhejiang Province (2010R401140; 2010R401244).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Su, S., Li, D., Yu, X. et al. Assessing land ecological security in Shanghai (China) based on catastrophe theory. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 25, 737–746 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-011-0457-9
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-011-0457-9