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Assessment of change in design flood frequency under climate change using a multivariate downscaling model and a precipitation-runoff model

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Abstract

Precipitation and runoff are key elements in the hydrologic cycle because of their important roles in water supply, flood prevention, river restoration, and ecosystem management. Global climate change, widely accepted to be happening, is anticipated to have enormous consequences on future hydrologic patterns. Studies on the potential changes in global, regional, and local hydrologic patterns under global climate change scenarios have been an intense area of research in recent years. The present study contributes to this research topic through evaluation of design flood under climate change. The study utilizes a weather state-based, stochastic multivariate model as a conditional probability model for simulating the precipitation field. An important premise of this study is that large-scale climatic patterns serve as a major driver of persistent year-to-year changes in precipitation probabilities. Since uncertainty estimation in the study of climate change is needed to examine the reliability of the outcomes, this study also applies a Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo scheme to the widely used SAC-SMA (Sacramento soil moisture accounting) precipitation-runoff model. A case study is also performed with the Soyang Dam watershed in South Korea as the study basin. Finally, a comprehensive discussion on design flood under climate change is made.

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Acknowledgment

This research was supported by Basic Science Research Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) funded by the Ministry of Education, Science and Technology (2010-0002370).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Civil Engineering, Chonbuk National University, 664-14 1Ga, Deokjin-Dong, Jeonju-City, Jeonbuk, 561-756, South Korea

    Hyun-Han Kwon

  2. School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, The University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, 2052, Australia

    Bellie Sivakumar

  3. Department of Civil Engineering, University of Seoul, Seoul, South Korea

    Young-Il Moon

  4. Water Resources Research Division, Korea Institute of Construction Technology, Goyang-Si, Gyeonggi-Do, 411-712, South Korea

    Byung-Sik Kim

Authors
  1. Hyun-Han Kwon
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  2. Bellie Sivakumar
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  3. Young-Il Moon
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  4. Byung-Sik Kim
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Correspondence to Byung-Sik Kim.

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Kwon, HH., Sivakumar, B., Moon, YI. et al. Assessment of change in design flood frequency under climate change using a multivariate downscaling model and a precipitation-runoff model. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 25, 567–581 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-010-0422-z

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-010-0422-z

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