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Regional flood frequency and spatial patterns analysis in the Pearl River Delta region using L-moments approach

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Abstract

The Pearl River Delta (PRD) has one of the most complicated deltaic drainage systems with probably the highest density of crisscross-river network in the world. This article presents a regional flood frequency analysis and recognition of spatial patterns for flood-frequency variations in the PRD region using the well-known index flood L-moments approach together with some advanced statistical test and spatial analysis methods. Results indicate that: (1) the whole PRD region is definitely heterogeneous according to the heterogeneity test and can be divided into three homogeneous regions; (2) the spatial maps for annual maximum flood stage corresponding to different return periods in the PRD region suggest that the flood stage decreases gradually from the riverine system to the tide dominated costal areas; (3) from a regional perspective, the spatial patterns of flood-frequency variations demonstrate the most serious flood-risk in the coastal region because it is extremely prone to the emerging flood hazards, typhoons, storm surges and well-evidenced sea-level rising. Excessive rainfall in the upstream basins will lead to moderate floods in the upper and middle PRD region. The flood risks of rest parts are identified as the lowest in entire PRD. In order to obtain more reliable estimates, the stationarity and serial-independence are tested prior to frequency analysis. The characterization of the spatial patterns of flood-frequency variations is conducted to reveal the potential influences of climate change and intensified human activities. These findings will definitely contribute to formulating the regional development strategies for policymakers and stakeholders in water resource management against the menaces of frequently emerged floods and well-evidenced sea level rising.

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Acknowledgments

The work was financially supported by a key grant from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (40830639), State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science (2008B041), open Research Grant from the Key Sediment Lab of the Ministry for Water Resources (2008001), key Research Grant from Chinese Ministry of Education (308012), National Key Technology R&D Program (2007BAC03A060301), and a grant from Ministry of Water Resources (200701039), and the Programme of Introducing Talents of Discipline to Universities—the 111 Project of Hohai University (B08048). We would like to appreciate the editor, associate editor and three anonymous referees for their constructive comments, which greatly improve the quality of this paper.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulics Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing, 210098, The People’s Republic of China

    Tao Yang & Xi Chen

  2. State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430072, China

    Tao Yang

  3. Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, P.O. Box 1047, Blindern, 0316, Oslo, Norway

    Chong-Yu Xu

  4. Mathematical & Information Sciences, CSIRO, Private Bag 5, PO Wembley, WA, 6913, Australia

    Quan-Xi Shao

  5. The Institute of Hydraulic Engineering of Yellow River, Zhengzhou, 450003, China

    Tao Yang

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  1. Tao Yang
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  2. Chong-Yu Xu
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  3. Quan-Xi Shao
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  4. Xi Chen
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Correspondence to Tao Yang.

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Yang, T., Xu, CY., Shao, QX. et al. Regional flood frequency and spatial patterns analysis in the Pearl River Delta region using L-moments approach. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 24, 165–182 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-009-0308-0

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