Abstract
Drought is a climatic event that can cause significant damage both in natural environment and in human lives. Drought forecasting is an important issue in water resource planning. Due to the stochastic behaviour of droughts, a multiplicative seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model was applied to forecast monthly streamflow in a small watershed in Galicia (NW Spain). A better streamflow forecast obtained when the Martone index was included in the model as explanatory variable. After forecasting 12 leading month streamflow, three drought thresholds: streamflow mean, monthly streamflow mean and standardized streamflow index were chosen. Both observed and forecasted streamflow showed no drought evidence in this basin.
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Acknowledgments
This study was funded by the Galician Research, Science and Technology Commission, the National Institute of Agricultural Research of Spain (INIA) and the Galician Research and Development Directorate through the projects 8636, SC-93-096 and PGIDIT05RFO50202PR, respectively. This work was also co-financed by the European Social Fund (Dr. C. Fernández). We are grateful to all those who have helped with data collection, particularly José Ramón González and Antonio Arellano. We sincerely acknowledge the critical reviews of the Editor and the anonymous referees who helped improve an early version of the manuscript.
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Fernández, C., Vega, J.A., Fonturbel, T. et al. Streamflow drought time series forecasting: a case study in a small watershed in North West Spain. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 23, 1063–1070 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-008-0277-8
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-008-0277-8