Abstract
The problem is not uncertainty—proposed here as an inevitable condition—but the chimera of certainty asserted by most contemporary researchers. Problems of data definition, collection, and their use are reviewed in terms of spatial epidemiology and health data with examples drawn from several areas of contemporary health research. The argument is that preconceptions limit data modeled in a manner assuming its completeness. The result, as the West Nile Virus example seeks to demonstrate, may obscure other patterns and limit avenues of research.
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The authors wish to thank reviewers of an earlier draft of this manuscript for their suggestions and comments. We believe their contributions improved significantly the resulting paper.
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Koch, T., Denike, K. Certainty, uncertainty, and the spatiality of disease: a West Nile Virus example. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 21, 523–531 (2007). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-007-0144-z
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-007-0144-z