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A stochastic model of surface contaminant releases to support assessment of site contamination at a former industrial site

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Abstract

An industrial site is usually contaminated by accidental (and occasionally intentional) releases of pollutants to the environment from various operations carried out on that site. Consequently, the pattern of contamination created during the life of the site depends in part, at least, on the pattern of operations. Thus, the assessment of the pattern of contamination over the site should be improved: if it is possible to identify the pattern of operations on the site, the duration of the different activities and the perceived likelihood of releases from the different operations. A stochastic model has been developed that can be used to simulate alternative realizations of contaminant releases (duration, extent and timing). The model employs release zones associated with particular activities or groups of activities on the site and the areas of each of the zones may be independent or overlapping. The period of activity in each zone is obtained from the site records, while the likelihood and extent of contamination in each zone is inferred from an analysis of the contamination data obtained by point sampling. The form of the model, the method of inference of the model parameter values from the site data and the application of the model to the study site are presented. The release model has been developed as part of a suite of stochastic models for site ground contamination analysis. The stochastic soil and transport models and the application of the integrated modelling system are described in separate papers.

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Acknowledgements

The authors would like to express their gratitude to the site owners, their consultants and contractors for providing access to the site and for providing the data from the site that permitted the development and testing of the stochastic methodology.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Earth Sciences, The University of Birmingham, Birmingham, B15 2TT, UK

    R. Mackay

  2. Centre for Land Use and Water Resources Research (CLUWRR), University of Newcastle, Newcastle upon Tyne, NE1 7RU, UK

    J.A. Morakinyo

  3. FSC Architects and Engineers, 4910 - 53rd Street, P.O. Box 1777, Yellowknife, NT, Canada, X1A 2P4

    J.A. Morakinyo

Authors
  1. R. Mackay
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  2. J.A. Morakinyo
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Correspondence to J.A. Morakinyo.

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Mackay, R., Morakinyo, J. A stochastic model of surface contaminant releases to support assessment of site contamination at a former industrial site. Stoch Environ Res Ris Assess 20, 213–222 (2006). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-005-0016-3

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-005-0016-3

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