Analysis and model-based predictions of solar PV and battery adoption in Germany: an agent-based approach

  • Ammar AlyousefEmail author
  • Adedamola Adepetu
  • Hermann de Meer
Special Issue Paper


In order to tackle energy challenges faced in Germany, a Feed-in Tariff program was created in 2004 to aid the adoption of solar PhotoVoltaic (PV) systems where owners of such systems are paid a certain amount for each unit of electricity generated. Solar PV electricity generation is limited due to its intermittency but this can be managed using batteries. In this paper, we study the adoption of PV and battery (PV-battery) systems in Germany, and evaluate policies that could improve the adoption of these systems and their impact on the electric grid. To do this, we create an agent-based model that is simulated to estimate the impacts of different policies; this model is informed by an online survey with respondents from Germany. Simulating adoption over a period of 10 years, the results show that increasing electricity prices could result in improved PV-battery adoption in Germany better than reducing PV-battery system prices could. In addition, given the high level of affinity of people towards PV systems in Germany, disconnection from the grid would be a viable option within the next 10 years.


Grid defection Battery adoption PV adoption Self-consumption 



This work has been partially carried out within both Internet-Kompetenzzentrum Ostbayern (IKZ_Ostbayern) project and the European project DC4Cities (FP7-ICT-2013.6.2). Furthermore, the authors of this paper would like to show their gratitude to Mr. Franz-Josef Feilmeier and Prof. S. Keshav, Univ. of Waterloo, for their significant contributions in this paper.


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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2016

Authors and Affiliations

  • Ammar Alyousef
    • 1
    Email author
  • Adedamola Adepetu
    • 2
  • Hermann de Meer
    • 1
  1. 1.Computer Networks and Communications GroupUniversity of PassauPassauGermany
  2. 2.University of WaterlooWaterlooCanada

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