Abstract
Volcano geodesy often involves the use of models to explain observed surface deformation. A variety of forward models are used, from analytical point sources to numerical simulations that consider complex magma system geometries, topography, and material properties. Various inversion methods can then be used to relate observed volcano data to models. Ideally, forward models should be verified through intercomparison, to check for implementation errors and quantify the error induced by any approximations used. Additionally, forward models and inversion methods should be validated through tests with synthetic and/or real data, to determine their ability to match data and estimate parameter values within uncertainty. However, to date, there have not been comprehensive verification and validation efforts in volcano geodesy. Here, we report on the first phase of the Drivers of Volcano Deformation (DVD) exercises, which were designed to build community involvement through web-based exercises involving calculations of static elastic displacement around pressurized magma reservoirs. The forward model exercises begin with a spherical reservoir in a homogeneous half space, then introduce topography, heterogeneous elastic properties, and spheroidal geometries. The inversion exercises provide synthetic noisy surface displacement data for a spherical reservoir in a homogeneous half space and assess consistency in estimates of reservoir location and volume/pressure change. There is variability in the results from both forward modeling and inversions, which highlights the strengths and limitations of different forward models, as well as the importance of inversion method choice and uncertainty quantification. This first phase of the DVD exercises serves as a community resource and will facilitate further efforts to develop standards of reproducibility.
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Acknowledgements
We thank Maurizio Battaglia, James Hickey, and an anonymous reviewer for providing constructive feedback.
Funding
Support was provided by the U.S. National Science Foundation (NSF) Research Coordination Network (RCN): Community Network for Volcanic Eruption Response (CONVERSE) under award NSF-EAR1830873 and Modeling Collaboratory for Subduction under award NSF-EAR1824343. Support was also provided by the International Association of Volcanology and Chemistry of the Earth’s Interior (IAVCEI) Commission on Volcano Geodesy. CNL acknowledges support from the European Research Council (ERC) through the EU Horizon 2020 project DEEPVOLC (Grant 866085) and the UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) through the Centre for the Observation and Modelling of Earthquakes, Volcanoes and Tectonics (COMET, http://comet. nerc.ac.uk). AA and ET acknowledge funding by the LOVE-CF project 2020–2023 (INGV, Internal Register no. 1865 17/07/2020). FS acknowledges support by the EU Horizon 2020 project RELIANCE (Grant 101017501). LK acknowledges support from NSF grant 1848554. RG acknowledges support from NSF grant 2019232. MA acknowledges partial support through NSF grant 1855126. The exercise website can be found at www.driversofvolcanodeformation.org. Any use of trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government. This is contribution no. 624 of the ClerVolc program of the International Research Center for Disaster Sciences and Sustainable Development of the University of Clermont Auvergne.
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Original draft: J. C. Review and editing: L. K., V. C., R. G., K. A., T. S., T. W., C. N., G. C., E. T. Exercise planning and design: L. K., E. M.-B., J. C., V. C., M.-G. B., R. G. Website design: M. A. V. Exercise participation: J. C., L. K., M. A., V. C., T. A. W., T. S., K. A., A. A., O. B., F. C., G. C., F. D., B. A. E, D. G., M. H., A. I., Y. C. K., H. L. M., C. N. L., C. R., F. S., E. T., Y. Z. Additional analysis: J. C., L. K., T. W., T. S., V. C., K. A.
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Crozier, J., Karlstrom, L., Montgomery-Brown, E. et al. Understanding the drivers of volcano deformation through geodetic model verification and validation. Bull Volcanol 85, 74 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-023-01687-4
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-023-01687-4