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Introducing the Volcanic Unrest Index (VUI): a tool to quantify and communicate the intensity of volcanic unrest

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Abstract

Accurately observing and interpreting volcanic unrest phenomena contributes towards better forecasting of volcanic eruptions, thus potentially saving lives. Volcanic unrest is recorded by volcano observatories and may include seismic, geodetic, degassing and/or geothermal phenomena. The multivariate datasets are often complex and can contain a large amount of data in a variety of formats. Low levels of unrest are frequently recorded, causing the distinction between background activity and unrest to be blurred, despite the widespread usage of these terms in unrest literature (including probabilistic eruption-forecasting models) and in Volcanic Alert Level (VAL) systems. Frequencies and intensities of unrest episodes are not easily comparable over time or between volcanoes. Complex unrest information is difficult to communicate simply to civil defence personnel and other non-scientists. The Volcanic Unrest Index (VUI) is presented here to address these issues. The purpose of the VUI is to provide a semi-quantitative rating of unrest intensity relative to each volcano’s past level of unrest and to that of analogous volcanoes. The VUI is calculated using a worksheet of observed phenomena. Ranges for each phenomenon within the worksheet can be customised for individual volcanoes, as demonstrated in the companion paper for Taupo Volcanic Centre, New Zealand (Potter et al. 2015). The VUI can be determined retrospectively for historical episodes of unrest based on qualitative observations, as well as for recent episodes with state-of-the-art monitoring. This enables a long time series of unrest occurrence and intensity to be constructed and easily communicated to end users. The VUI can also assist with VAL decision-making. We present and discuss two approaches to the concept of unrest.

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Acknowledgements

The authors would like to thank contributing scientists, including from GNS Science, US Geological Survey, and various universities; Jan Lindsay for the encouragement, S.H. Potter’s PhD examiners for the feedback and New Zealand stakeholders for their input to the VUI. Thank you to Chris Newhall, an anonymous reviewer, and Servando De la Cruz-Reyna and James White for valuable comments. This project was supported by public research funding from the Government of New Zealand through GNS Science and the New Zealand Earthquake Commission. Thank you to the Claude McCarthy Fellowship for assisting with travel costs and to Massey University for supplying resources.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. GNS Science, 1 Fairway Drive, Lower Hutt, 5010, New Zealand

    Sally H. Potter, Gill E Jolly & David M Johnston

  2. GNS Science, 114 Karetoto Road, Taupo, 3384, New Zealand

    Bradley J Scott

  3. Massey University, Tennent Drive, Palmerston North, 4474, New Zealand

    Vince E Neall

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  1. Sally H. Potter
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  2. Bradley J Scott
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  3. Gill E Jolly
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  4. Vince E Neall
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  5. David M Johnston
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Correspondence to Sally H. Potter.

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Editorial responsibility: S. De la Cruz-Reyna

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Potter, S.H., Scott, B.J., Jolly, G.E. et al. Introducing the Volcanic Unrest Index (VUI): a tool to quantify and communicate the intensity of volcanic unrest. Bull Volcanol 77, 77 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-015-0957-4

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