Abstract
As a result of the serious consequences of the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption (Iceland) on civil aviation, 52 volcanologists, meteorologists, atmospheric dispersion modellers and space and ground-based monitoring specialists from 12 different countries (including representatives from 6 Volcanic Ash Advisory Centres and related institutions) gathered to discuss the needs of the ash dispersal modelling community, investigate new data-acquisition strategies (i.e. quantitative measurements and observations) and discuss how to improve communication between the research community and institutions with an operational mandate. Based on a dedicated benchmark exercise and on 3 days of in-depth discussion, recommendations have been made for future model improvements, new strategies of ash cloud forecasting, multidisciplinary data acquisition and more efficient communication between different communities. Issues addressed in the workshop include ash dispersal modelling, uncertainty, ensemble forecasting, combining dispersal models and observations, sensitivity analysis, model variability, data acquisition, pre-eruption forecasting, first simulation and data assimilation, research priorities and new communication strategies to improve information flow and operational routines. As a main conclusion, model developers, meteorologists, volcanologists and stakeholders need to work closely together to develop new and improved strategies for ash dispersal forecasting and, in particular, to: (1) improve the definition of the source term, (2) design models and forecasting strategies that can better characterize uncertainties, (3) explore and identify the best ensemble strategies that can be adapted to ash dispersal forecasting, (4) identify optimized strategies for the combination of models and observations and (5) implement new critical operational strategies.
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Acknowledgements
All workshop participants (Appendix 2) are especially thanked for their enthusiastic contributions and hard work before, during and after the actual workshop and for the development of the consensual document, which represents the fundamental base of this manuscript. In particular, we would like to thank A. Durant, M. Pavolonis, P. Webley, R. Genco, M. Gouhier and G. Pappalardo for helping with the compilation of Tables 2 and 3, all data-acquisition experts that provided information to compile the Data-Acquisition Summary Document available at our website and all modelling groups for running the benchmark exercise and providing the information to compile the Model Summary Document also available at our website. Special thanks also to the convenors of the workshop sections (T. Casadevall, J. Phillips, M. Watson) for their crucial contribution and to the constructive reviews of M. Guffanti, M. Ripepe and J. White. This workshop was made possible by the support of our sponsors, and, in particular, the Faculty of Sciences of the University of Geneva, the Canton of Geneva, the International Association of Volcanology and Chemistry of the Earth's Interior and the World Meteorological Organization.
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Appendices
Appendix 1
- AIRS:
-
Atmospheric Infrared Sounder
- AOD:
-
Aerosol Optical Depth
- ASTER:
-
Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer
- ATHAM:
-
Active Tracer High Resolution Atmospheric Model
- AVHRR:
-
Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer
- DIAL:
-
Differential absorption lidar technique
- ECMWF:
-
European Centre Medium-Range Weather Forecast
- EDM:
-
Environmental Dust Monitors
- EUSAAR:
-
European Supersites for Atmospheric Aerosol Research
- GOES:
-
Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites
- HYSPLIT:
-
HYbrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory
- IASI:
-
Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer
- IAVCEI:
-
International Association of Volcanology and Chemistry of the Earth Interior
- IAVWOPSG:
-
International Airways Volcano Watch Operations Group
- ICAO:
-
International Civil Aviation Organization
- IMO:
-
Icelandic Meteorological Office
- IR-SO2:
-
Infrared Spectroscopy of SO2
- IVATF:
-
International Volcanic Ash Task Force
- JMA:
-
Japan Meteorological Agency
- LIDAR:
-
Light Detection And Ranging
- MLDP0:
-
Modèle Lagrangien de Dispersion de Particules d'ordre zéro
- MAXDOAS:
-
Multiple Axis Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy
- MER:
-
Mass Eruption Rate
- MISR:
-
Multi-angle Imaging Spectro-Radiometer
- MOCAGE:
-
Modélisation de la Chimie Atmosphérique Grande Echelle
- MODIS:
-
Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer
- MTR:
-
Mass Transport Rate in the cloud
- MTSAT:
-
Multi-Functional Transport Satellite
- NAME:
-
Numerical Atmospheric-dispersion Modelling Environment
- NCAR:
-
National Center for Atmospheric Research
- NCEP:
-
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
- NWP:
-
Numerical Weather Prediction (Models)
- OMI:
-
Ozone Monitoring Instrument
- OPC:
-
Optical Particle Counter
- PDF:
-
Probability Density Function
- SEVIRI:
-
Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager
- SNR:
-
Signal to Noise Ratio
- TGSD:
-
Total Grain Size Distribution
- TIR:
-
Thermal InfraRed
- VATDM:
-
Volcanic Ash Transport and Dispersal Models
- VAA:
-
Volcanic Ash Advisory
- VAAC:
-
Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre
- VAG:
-
Volcanic Ash Graphic
- VO:
-
Volcano Observatories
- VOGRIPA:
-
Volcano Global Risk Identification and Analysis project
- VOL-CALPUFF:
-
Volcanic CALifornia PUFF model
- VOLDORAD:
-
Volcano Doppler Radar
- WMO:
-
World Meteorological Organization
- WOVO:
-
World Organization of Volcano Observatories
Appendix 2
List of participants
Organising Committee | Institution | |
Costanza Bonadonna | Section of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Geneva, Switzerland | costanza.bonadonna@unige.ch |
Arnau Folch | Earth Sciences Division, Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Spain | arnau.folch@bsc.es |
Herbert Puempel | Chief, Aeronautical Meteorology Division (C/AEM), WMO, Geneva | hpuempel@wmo.int |
Sue Loughlin | British Geological Survey, Edinburgh, UK | sclou@bgs.ac.uk |
Speaker | Institution | |
Sara Barsotti | INGV, Sezione di Pisa, Italy | barsotti@pi.ingv.it |
Marcus Bursik | SUNY at Buffalo, USA | mib@buffalo.edu |
Thomas Casadevall | Denver Federal Center, USGS, USA | tcasadevall@usgs.gov |
Hugh Coe | University of Manchester, UK | hugh.coe@manchester.ac.uk |
Mauro Coltelli | INGV, Sezione di Catania, Italy | coltelli@ct.ingv.it |
Antonio Costa | INGV, Sezione di Napoli, Italy | antonio.costa@ov.ingv.it |
Real D'Amours | Canadian Meteorological Centre | real.d'amours@ec.gc.ca |
Adam Durant | Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Cambridge, UK | ajd90@cam.ac.uk |
Mathieu Gouhier | Laboratoire Magmas et Volcans, Clermont-Ferrand, France | M.Gouhier@opgc.univ-bpclermont.fr |
HHans Graf | Department of Geography, University of Cambridge, UK | hfg21@cam.ac.uk |
Matthew Hort | Meteorological Office, London VAAC, UK | matthew.hort@metoffice.gov.uk |
Armann Höskuldsson | Institute of Earth Sciences, University of Iceland, Iceland | armh@hi.is |
Sigrún Karlsdóttir | Icelandic Meteorological Office | sigk@vedur.is |
Nina Kristiansen | Atmosphere and Climate Department, Norwegian Institute for Air Research, Norway | Nina.Iren.Kristiansen@nilu.no |
Larry Mastin | USGS—Cascades Volcano Observatory, USA | lgmastin@usgs.gov |
Gelsomina Pappalardo | CNR—Potenza, Italy | pappalardo@imaa.cnr.it |
Mike Pavolonis | NOAA/NESDIS, USA | mpav@ssec.wisc.edu |
Aline Peuch | Meteo France, VAACToulouse, France | aline.peuch@meteo.fr |
Maurizio Ripepe | Università di Firenze, Italy | maurizio.ripepe@unifi.it |
Simona Scollo | INGV, Sezione di Catania, Italy | scollo@ct.ingv.it |
Flavio Sgro | ENAV, Italy | santo.sgro@enav.it |
Barbara Stunder | NOAA Air Resources Laboratory, USA | Barbara.Stunder@noaa.gov |
Thor Thordarson | University of Edinburgh, UK | tthordar@staffmail.ed.ac.uk |
Matt Watson | Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, UK | Matt.Watson@bristol.ac.uk |
Konradin Weber | Fachhochschule Düsseldorf, Germany | konradin.weber@fh-duesseldorf.de |
Peter Webley | Geophysical Institute and Alaska Volcano Observatory, University of Alaska Fairbanks, USA | pwebley@gi.alaska.edu |
Participant | Institution | |
Sebastien Biass | Section of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Geneva, Switzerland | biasse3@etu.unige.ch |
Fabrizia Buongiorno | INGV, Sezione di Roma, Italy | buongiorno@ingv.it |
Helene Dacre | Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, UK | h.f.dacre@reading.ac.uk |
Roger Denlinger | USGS—Cascades Volcano Observatory, USA | roger@usgs.gov |
Jean-Luc Falcone | Computer Science Department, University of Geneva, Switzerland | Jean-Luc.Falcone@unige.ch |
Riccardo Genco | Università di Firenze, Italy | r.genco@yahoo.it |
Susanna Jenkins | Cambridge Architectural Research, UK | susanna.jenkins@gmail.com |
Giovanni Macedonio | INGV, Sezione di Napoli, Italy | macedon@ov.ingv.it |
Christina Magill | Risk Frontiers, ELS Division, Macquarie University, Australia | cmagill@els.mq.edu.au |
Kazutaka Mannen | University of South Florida, USA | kmannen@usf.edu |
Augusto Neri | INGV, Sezione di Pisa, Italy | neri@pi.ingv.it |
Jeremy Phillips | Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, UK | J.C.Phillips@bristol.ac.uk |
Rodney Potts | Darwin RFC/RSMC/VAAC, Bureau of Meteorology, Australia | R.Potts@bom.gov.au |
José Mª Ramírez | Agencia Estatal de Seguridad Aérea, Spain | jmramirez@fomento.es |
Bill Rose | Michigan Technological University, USA | raman@mtu.edu |
Chiara Scaini | Earth Sciences Division, Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Spain | saetachiara@gmail.com |
Ulrich Schumann | DLR-Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Germany | ulrich.schumann@dlr.de |
Hans Schwaiger | USGS—Cascades Volcano Observatory, USA | hschwaiger@usgs.gov |
Claudia Spinetti | INGV, Italy | spinetti@ingv.it |
Yujiro Suzuki | JAMSTEC, IFRE, Japan | yujiros@jamstec.go.jp |
Alain Volentik | Department of Geology and Geophysics, University of Hawai'i, USA | avolenti@mail.usf.edu |
Sibylle von Löwis | Icelandic Meteorological Office | sibylle@vedur.is |
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Bonadonna, C., Folch, A., Loughlin, S. et al. Future developments in modelling and monitoring of volcanic ash clouds: outcomes from the first IAVCEI-WMO workshop on Ash Dispersal Forecast and Civil Aviation. Bull Volcanol 74, 1–10 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-011-0508-6
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-011-0508-6