Abstract
The main purpose of this paper is to introduce a Bayesian event tree model for eruption forecasting (BET_EF). The model represents a flexible tool to provide probabilities of any specific event which we are interested in, by merging all the relevant available information such as theoretical models, a priori beliefs, monitoring measures, and any kind of past data. BET_EF is based on a Bayesian procedure and it relies on the fuzzy approach to manage monitoring data. The method deals with short- and long-term forecasting; therefore, it can be useful in many practical aspects such as land use planning and volcanic emergencies. Finally, we provide the description of a free software package that provides a graphically supported computation of short- to long-term eruption forecasting, and a tutorial application for the recent MESIMEX exercise at Vesuvius.
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Acknowledgements
This work was funded by the Italian Dipartimento della Protezione Civile in the frame of the 2004–2006 Agreement with Istituto Nazionale de Geofisica e Vulcanologia-INGV.
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Marzocchi, W., Sandri, L. & Selva, J. BET_EF: a probabilistic tool for long- and short-term eruption forecasting. Bull Volcanol 70, 623–632 (2008). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-007-0157-y
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-007-0157-y