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Simulation of syn-eruptive floods in the circumvesuvian plain (southern Italy)

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Abstract

During explosive eruptions the deposition of fine-grained volcanic ash fallout reduces soil permeability, favouring runoff of meteoric water and thus increasing the occurrence of catastrophic floods. A fully dynamic, two-dimensional model was used to simulate flooding scenarios in the Vesuvian area following an explosive volcanic eruption. The highest risk occurs in the catchment area of the Acerra-Nola Plain N and NE of Vesuvius. This plain has a population of 70,000 living in low-lying areas. This catchment area is vulnerable to ash fall because it lies downwind of the dominant synoptic circulation and it lacks a natural outflow toward the sea. Our numerical simulations predict dangerous scenarios, even in quiescent periods, during extreme rain events (return periods of 200 years have been considered), and a significant increase in the extent of the flooded areas due to renewed volcanic activity. Based on these simulations a hazard zonation has been proposed.

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Acknowledgements

This work was supported by the CNR-GNDCI and INGV. We thank S. Cavazza, S. Barontini, V. Caponi, F. Mazzarini, R. Santacroce, M. Rosi, C. Principe and J. O'Brien for the useful suggestions and B.F. Houghton for his constructive revision of an earlier version of the paper. We also thank D. Pyle, D. Pritchard and an anonymous referee for their comments, which greatly improved the quality of the manuscript

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  1. Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Via della Faggiola 32, 56126, Pisa, Italy

    M. Favalli & M. T. Pareschi

  2. Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra, University of Pisa, via S. Maria, 56126, Pisa, Italy

    G. Zanchetta

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  1. M. Favalli
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Correspondence to M. T. Pareschi.

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Favalli, M., Pareschi, M.T. & Zanchetta, G. Simulation of syn-eruptive floods in the circumvesuvian plain (southern Italy). Bull Volcanol 68, 349–362 (2006). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-005-0011-z

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