Abstract
Population decline and the threat of extinction are realities currently facing many species. Yet, in most cases, the detailed demographic data necessary to identify causes of population decline are unavailable. Using 43 years (1975−2017) of data from a box-nesting population of tree swallows (Tachycineta bicolor), we identified reduced survival of offspring as a probable demographic cause of population decline. Poor fledging success was associated with increased predation and poor weather conditions during early nestling development. Low juvenile survival and subsequent recruitment was linked to poor weather conditions during the post-fledging period and may also be linked to conditions on the wintering grounds. Regional weather conditions during critical stages of breeding (early nestling and post-fledging) have become progressively worse over the 43-year study period. None of the other factors linked to offspring survival have similarly deteriorated. Overall, our results suggest tree swallows should be added to the growing list of species challenged by climate change, and that other species of aerial insect specialists may face similar impacts of climate change.
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Acknowledgements
We thank the many students who have collected data on the tree swallow population over the years and the Queen’s University Biological Station for their continued support. We thank Liam Bailey for his review of the original manuscript. FB was supported by Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC) Discovery Grant, Queen’s University, and the Canadian Foundation for Innovation (project #32672). ARC was supported by NSERC and Ontario graduate scholarships. RJR was supported by successive NSERC grants from 1975 to 2010. WBR was supported by an NSERC Postdoctoral Fellowship and NSERC postgraduate and Ontario graduate scholarships.
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RJR started the tree swallow monitoring project in 1975 and, with a succession of students, oversaw it until 2007. FB supervised the field studies and management of the entire data set beginning in 2008. WBR also contributed to the monitoring of the study population and collection of data (1986–1998). ARC and FB conceived the study. ARC and WBR compiled the data. ARC completed the analyses. ARC wrote the initial manuscript, with help from FB. All authors edited the manuscript.
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All recent work was approved by the Queen’s University Animal Care Committee (protocol #2015-1572) and the Canadian Wildlife Service (CA0211 and banding permit 10771).
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Communicated by Markku Orell.
40+ years of tree swallow population monitoring, before and after avian aerial insectivores began declining, ties avian aerial insectivore population declines to increasingly rainy spring weather.
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Cox, A.R., Robertson, R.J., Rendell, W.B. et al. Population decline in tree swallows (Tachycineta bicolor) linked to climate change and inclement weather on the breeding ground. Oecologia 192, 713–722 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00442-020-04618-8
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00442-020-04618-8