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Climate change can alter predator–prey dynamics and population viability of prey

Oecologia volume 186, pages 141–150 (2018)Cite this article

Abstract

For many organisms, climate change can directly drive population declines, but it is less clear how such variation may influence populations indirectly through modified biotic interactions. For instance, how will climate change alter complex, multi-species relationships that are modulated by climatic variation and that underlie ecosystem-level processes? Caribou (Rangifer tarandus), a keystone species in Newfoundland, Canada, provides a useful model for unravelling potential and complex long-term implications of climate change on biotic interactions and population change. We measured cause-specific caribou calf predation (1990–2013) in Newfoundland relative to seasonal weather patterns. We show that black bear (Ursus americanus) predation is facilitated by time-lagged higher summer growing degree days, whereas coyote (Canis latrans) predation increases with current precipitation and winter temperature. Based on future climate forecasts for the region, we illustrate that, through time, coyote predation on caribou calves could become increasingly important, whereas the influence of black bear would remain unchanged. From these predictions, demographic projections for caribou suggest long-term population limitation specifically through indirect effects of climate change on calf predation rates by coyotes. While our work assumes limited impact of climate change on other processes, it illustrates the range of impact that climate change can have on predator–prey interactions. We conclude that future efforts to predict potential effects of climate change on populations and ecosystems should include assessment of both direct and indirect effects, including climate–predator interactions.

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Acknowledgements

This project was a component of the Newfoundland & Labrador Caribou Strategy, 2008–2013. This study was funded by the Institute for Biodiversity, Ecosystem Science & Sustainability; the Sustainable Development & Strategic Science Division of the Newfoundland & Labrador Department of Environment & Conservation; and the Safari Club International Foundation. G. Bastille-Rousseau was supported by a scholarship from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada. We thank K. P. Lewis for comments on an earlier version of this manuscript. We thank the Newfoundland & Labrador Department of Environment & Conservation for providing these long-term survival data as well as the efforts of many government personnel in the caribou captures and monitoring over the last four decades. Funding was provided by NSERC.

Author information

Affiliations

  1. Department of Fish, Wildlife and Conservation Biology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, 80523, USA

    Guillaume Bastille-Rousseau

  2. Environmental and Life Sciences Graduate Program, Trent University, Peterborough, ON, K9L 0G2, Canada

    Guillaume Bastille-Rousseau, James A. Schaefer, Michael J. L. Peers, E. Hance Ellington & Dennis L. Murray

  3. Department of Biological Sciences, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, Canada

    Michael J. L. Peers

  4. School of Environment and Natural Resources, Ohio State University, 201 Kottman Hall, 2021 Coffey Rd, Columbus, OH, 43210, USA

    E. Hance Ellington

  5. Department of Fish and Wildlife Sciences, College of Natural Resources, University of Idaho, Moscow, ID, 83844, USA

    Matthew A. Mumma

  6. Department of Environmental Conservation, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA, 01003, USA

    Nathaniel D. Rayl

  7. Conservation Visions Inc, Stn C, P.O. Box 5489, St. John’s, Newfoundland and Labrador, A1C 5W4, Canada

    Shane P. Mahoney

Authors
  1. Guillaume Bastille-Rousseau
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  2. James A. Schaefer
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  3. Michael J. L. Peers
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  4. E. Hance Ellington
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  5. Matthew A. Mumma
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  6. Nathaniel D. Rayl
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  7. Shane P. Mahoney
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  8. Dennis L. Murray
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Contributions

GBR, JAS, and DLM designed the study. MJLP, EHE, MAM, NDR and SPM collected and provided data. GBR performed the analysis with assistance from MJLP, EHE and DLM. GBR drafted the manuscript with inputs from all co-authors.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Guillaume Bastille-Rousseau.

Additional information

Communicated by Ilpo Kojola.

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Bastille-Rousseau, G., Schaefer, J.A., Peers, M.J.L. et al. Climate change can alter predator–prey dynamics and population viability of prey. Oecologia 186, 141–150 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00442-017-4017-y

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00442-017-4017-y

Keywords

  • Cause-specific survival analysis
  • Conservation biology
  • Caribou (Rangifer tarandus)
  • Population dynamics
  • Predator–prey interactions