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Development and validation of a model for predicting the adult height of girls with idiopathic central precocious puberty

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Abstract

The aim was to develop a model to predict the adult height (AH) of idiopathic central precocious puberty (ICPP) girls who underwent gonadotropin-releasing hormone analog (GnRHa) treatment. Data analysis included 258 girls with ICPP. Among them, 101 girls who reached final AH (FAH) with GnRHa treatment were analyzed to verify three previous prediction models and develop a unique model based on multiple linear regression. The control group consisted of 41 untreated ICPP girls. Moreover, 116 girls treated with GnRHa who almost attained FAH were included for external validation. Based on our cohorts, all of the three previously published models underestimated the FAH with an R of 0.667, 0.793, and 0.664. The AH prediction model was built as follows: Calculated AH (cm) = 1.89630 * Height SDS + 2.29927 * Height SDS for bone age + 0.40776 * Target height + 100.16684 (R2 = 0.66 and adjusted R2 = 0.65). Internal validation showed a mean root mean squared error (RMSE) of 2.16 cm and a mean absolute error (MAE) of 1.64 cm. External validation showed that a significant error (> 1 SD) appeared only in 7 of 116 girls (6.0%). The model is displayed on the website: http://cpppredict.shinyapps.io/dynnomapp.

Conclusion: A model for predicting the AH of girls with ICPP was developed incorporating the variables of height SDS, height SDS for bone age, and target height. The internal and external validation ensures an appropriate degree of discrimination and calibration of the prediction model.

What is Known:

• Uncertainty prevails as how to predict the adult height of patients with central precocious puberty following gonadotropin-releasing hormone analog treatment.

• Previous models for predicting adult height of girls with idiopathic central precocious puberty have not been proven translational to the Chinese population.

What is New:

• This study develops a new model for predicting the adult height of idiopathic central precocious puberty girls who underwent gonadotropin-releasing hormone analog treatment.

• The internal and external validation assures a good degree of discrimination and calibration of the prediction model in this study.

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Data availability

The data sets generated and analyzed during the current study are not publicly available but are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.

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Acknowledgements

The authors gratefully acknowledge all the patients included in this study.

Funding

This study was supported by grants from the self-selected topic of Fuzhou Children’s Hospital of Fujian Medical University (YJ-2021–01).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Fuzhou Children’s Hospital of Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou, Fujian, China

    Wenyong Wu, Xiaoyun Zhu, Yun Chen, Xiaohong Yang, Ying Zhang & Ruimin Chen

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  1. Wenyong Wu
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  2. Xiaoyun Zhu
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  3. Yun Chen
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Contributions

W.W. contributed to the data analyses and drafted the manuscript. X.Z. and Y.C. contributed to the data acquisition. X.Y. and Y.Z. contributed to the clinical evaluation of participants. R.C. contributed to the conception of this manuscript. All the authors were involved in writing the paper and had final approval of the submitted version.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Ruimin Chen.

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Ethics approval

This study was conducted following the ethical standards of Fuzhou Children's Hospital of Fujian Medical University Committee on Human Research (Ethics Approval Number: 2021–18).

Consent to participate

Verbal informed consent was obtained prior to the interview.

Competing interests

The authors declare no competing interests.

Additional information

Communicated by Peter de Winter.

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Wu, W., Zhu, X., Chen, Y. et al. Development and validation of a model for predicting the adult height of girls with idiopathic central precocious puberty. Eur J Pediatr 182, 1627–1635 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00431-023-04842-3

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00431-023-04842-3

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