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Prediction of plasma caffeine concentrations in young adolescents following ingestion of caffeinated energy drinks: a Monte Carlo simulation

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Abstract

The fast-growing consumption of caffeinated energy drinks (CEDs) is linked to increasing reports of caffeine intoxication in adolescents. There is limited data available regarding plasma caffeine concentrations in this population after CED intake and the potential implications for caffeine-related toxicity. This study was an in silico population pharmacokinetic analysis of caffeine. Population pharmacokinetic model of oral caffeine was derived from a previous study of healthy male volunteers. Maximal plasma caffeine concentration (C max) profiles following ingestion of one or two servings of popular CEDs were predicted using Monte Carlo simulation and available population body weight data of 10–15-year-old Korean adolescents. Caffeine C max values were positively correlated with the amount of caffeine ingested in CEDs and negatively correlated with body weight. The median (range) C max profiles varied from a low of 1.2 (0.5–2.6) mg/L to a concentration that is potentially associated with harmful caffeine-related effects of 25.4 (8.1–55.6) mg/L. A subgroup of female 10–11-year-old subjects exhibited the highest caffeine exposure profiles.

Conclusion: These data indicate that CED ingestion can increase the risk of serious caffeine intoxication in young adolescents, particularly those with low body mass.

What is Known:

• Excessive consumption of caffeine can lead to serious caffeine intoxication.

• The risk of potential harmful caffeine intoxication after ingestion of caffeinated energy drinks (CED) has not been adequately evaluated in adolescents.

What is New:

• Predicted maximal plasma caffeine concentration profiles of adolescents with lower body weights showed an overlap with the ingested caffeine concentrations obtained from documented fatalities.

• The present simulation-based pharmacokinetic analysis demonstrates that CED ingestion could lead to potentially serious caffeine intoxication in this cohort.

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Fig. 1

Abbreviations

CED:

Caffeinated energy drink

CL :

Clearance

C max :

Maximal plasma caffeine concentration

k a :

Absorption rate constant

k e :

Elimination rate constant

MVN:

Multivariate normal distribution

t max :

Time at which C max is observed

V :

Volume of distribution

η :

Interindividual random variability parameter

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Conflict of interest

The authors report no conflict of interest. The authors alone are responsible for the content and writing of the paper.

Contribution of authors

Jung Woo Lee: study conception and design, and drafting the manuscript.

Yoo Kyung Kim: study conception and design, and revising the manuscript critically for important intellectual content.

Vidya Perera: Data acquisition and analysis, and revising the manuscript critically for important intellectual content.

Andrew J McLachlan: Data acquisition and analysis, and revising the manuscript critically for important intellectual content.

Kyun-Seop Bae: Study conception and design, data analysis and interpretation, and revising the manuscript critically for important intellectual content.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Human Ecology, College of Education, Korea University Graduate School, Seoul, Republic of Korea

    Jung Woo Lee & Yookyung Kim

  2. School of Pharmacy and Pharmaceutical Sciences, State University of New York at Buffalo, Buffalo, NY, USA

    Vidya Perera

  3. Faculty of Pharmacy, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia

    Vidya Perera & Andrew J. McLachlan

  4. Center for Education and Research on Ageing, Concord Hospital, Concord, NSW, Australia

    Andrew J. McLachlan

  5. Department of Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea

    Kyun-Seop Bae

Authors
  1. Jung Woo Lee
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  2. Yookyung Kim
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  3. Vidya Perera
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  4. Andrew J. McLachlan
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  5. Kyun-Seop Bae
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Kyun-Seop Bae.

Additional information

Communicated by Beat Steinmann

Revisions received: 29 May 2015 / 05 June 2015

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Lee, J.W., Kim, Y., Perera, V. et al. Prediction of plasma caffeine concentrations in young adolescents following ingestion of caffeinated energy drinks: a Monte Carlo simulation. Eur J Pediatr 174, 1671–1678 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00431-015-2581-x

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00431-015-2581-x

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