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The effect and prediction of diurnal temperature range in high altitude area on outpatient and emergency room admissions for cardiovascular diseases

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Abstract

Purpose

Diurnal temperature range (DTR) is a meteorological indicator closely associated with global climate change. Thus, we aim to explore the effects of DTR on the outpatient and emergency room (O&ER) admissions for cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), and related predictive research.

Methods

The O&ER admissions data for CVDs from three general hospitals in Jinchang of Gansu Province were collected from 2013 to 2016. A generalized additive model (GAM) with Poisson regression was employed to analyze the effect of DTR on the O&ER admissions for all cardiovascular diseases, hypertension, ischemic heart disease (IHD) and stoke. GAM was also used to preform predictive research of the effect of DTR on the O&ER admissions for CVDs.

Results

There were similar positive linear relationships between DTR and the O&ER visits with the four cardiovascular diseases. And the cumulative lag effects were higher than the single lag effects. A 1 °C increase in DTR corresponded to a 1.30% (0.99–1.62%) increase in O&ER admissions for all cardiovascular diseases. Males and elderly were more sensitivity to DTR. The estimates in non-heating season were higher than in heating season. The trial prediction accuracy rate of CVDs based on DTR was between 59.32 and 74.40%.

Conclusions

DTR has significantly positive association with O&ER admissions for CVDs, which can be used as a prediction index of the admissions of O&ER with CVDs.

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Acknowledgements

We would like to express our gratitude to all those who helped us during the writing of this thesis.

Funding

The study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant numbers: 41505095, 41705122) and the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities in China (Grant number: lzujbky-2020-sp22).

Author information

Author notes

  1. Wenzhi Zhu, Xingfu Wei and Li Zhang have contributed equally to this work.

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute of Epidemiology and Statistics, School of Public Health, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, China

    Wenzhi Zhu, Li Zhang, Qin Shi, Guoxiu Shi, Xiaofei Zhang, Minzhen Wang, Yana Bai & Shan Zheng

  2. Gansu Provincial Maternity and Child-Care Hospital, Lanzhou, 730000, China

    Xingfu Wei

  3. Workers’ Hospital of Jinchuan Group Co., Ltd., Jinchang, 737102, China

    Chun Yin & Feng Kang

  4. Jinchang Center for Disease Prevention and Control, Jinchang, 737100, China

    Yonghong Nie

Authors
  1. Wenzhi Zhu
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Contributions

WZ and XW: designed the study, data analysis, and drafting the manuscript; LZ: formal analysis and revised the manuscript; SZ: conceptualization, methodology, validation, and writing—review and editing, supervision. QS: formal analysis and investigation. GS: formal analysis and investigation. XZ: formal analysis and investigation. MW: methodology, investigation, and data curation. CY: resources and validation. FK: resources and validation. YN: resources and validation. YB: investigation and data curation.

Corresponding authors

Correspondence to Yonghong Nie or Shan Zheng.

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The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.

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The study was approved by the Ethics Committee of Lanzhou University School of Public Health (No. 2015-01).

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Zhu, W., Wei, X., Zhang, L. et al. The effect and prediction of diurnal temperature range in high altitude area on outpatient and emergency room admissions for cardiovascular diseases. Int Arch Occup Environ Health 94, 1783–1795 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00420-021-01699-7

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