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Comparisons between five self-administered instruments predicting sick leaves in a 4-year follow-up

International Archives of Occupational and Environmental Health volume 82, Article number: 227 (2009) Cite this article

Abstract

Objectives

This study aimed to explore and compare the ability of five instruments for self-rating to predict future sick leave rates.

Methods

In three Swedish municipalities 2,252 employees completed a baseline questionnaire and were followed up for 4 years. Five health-oriented instruments for self-rating were used as potential predictors of the two outcome measures no sick leave at all, and one or more spells of long-term sick leave ≥28 days. Positive and negative predictive values as well as Cox proportional hazard ratios (denoted as RRs) adjusted for age and work type were calculated.

Results

The instruments showed no statistical difference in predicting future sick leave for either of the sexes. For no sick leave RRs ranged between 1.27 and 1.52 (women), 1.35 and 1.61 (men); for long-term sick leave RRs ranged between 1.78 and 2.39 (women), 2.87 and 5.53 (men). However, the best prediction of long-term sick leave for men, RR 5.53, 95% confidence interval (CI) 3.37–9.08, was significantly higher than the best prediction for women, RR 2.39, 95% CI 1.97–2.90.

Conclusion

Prediction of long-term sick leave was better than that of no sick leave, and better among men than among women. There was a tendency for somewhat better prediction of future sick leave by multiple-question instruments, but single-question instruments can very well be used in predicting future sick leaves, and crude analyses stratified by sex can be used for screening purposes.

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Acknowledgments

The authors would like to thank statistician Stefan Stark of Uppsala University for preparing the data sets for the analyses. The HAKuL study was funded by a grant from AFA-Labour Market Insurance. There are no conflicts of interest.

Author information

Affiliations

  1. Section for Personal Injury Prevention, Department of Clinical Neuroscience, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden

    Per Lindberg & Eva Vingård

  2. Centre for Musculoskeletal Research, University College of Gävle, 801 76, Gävle, Sweden

    Per Lindberg

  3. Section of Occupational and Environmental Medicine, Department of Medical Sciences, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden

    Malin Josephson & Eva Vingård

  4. Division of Cardiovascular Epidemiology, Institute of Environmental Medicine, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden

    Lars Alfredsson

  5. Centre of Public Health, Stockholm County Council, Stockholm, Sweden

    Lars Alfredsson

Authors
  1. Per Lindberg
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  2. Malin Josephson
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  3. Lars Alfredsson
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  4. Eva Vingård
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Per Lindberg.

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Lindberg, P., Josephson, M., Alfredsson, L. et al. Comparisons between five self-administered instruments predicting sick leaves in a 4-year follow-up. Int Arch Occup Environ Health 82, 227 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00420-008-0326-0

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00420-008-0326-0

Keywords

  • Sickness absence
  • Self-rated health
  • SRH
  • Determinant
  • Work ability