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Radio-biologically motivated modeling of radiation risks of mortality from ischemic heart diseases in the Canadian fluoroscopy cohort study

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Abstract

Recent analyses of the Canadian fluoroscopy cohort study reported significantly increased radiation risks of mortality from ischemic heart diseases (IHD) with a linear dose–response adjusted for dose fractionation. This cohort includes 63,707 tuberculosis patients from Canada who were exposed to low-to-moderate dose fractionated X-rays in 1930s–1950s and were followed-up for death from non-cancer causes during 1950–1987. In the current analysis, we scrutinized the assumption of linearity by analyzing a series of radio-biologically motivated nonlinear dose–response models to get a better understanding of the impact of radiation damage on IHD. The models were weighted according to their quality of fit and were then mathematically superposed applying the multi-model inference (MMI) technique. Our results indicated an essentially linear dose–response relationship for IHD mortality at low and medium doses and a supra-linear relationship at higher doses (> 1.5 Gy). At 5 Gy, the estimated radiation risks were fivefold higher compared to the linear no-threshold (LNT) model. This is the largest study of patients exposed to fractionated low-to-moderate doses of radiation. Our analyses confirm previously reported significantly increased radiation risks of IHD from doses similar to those from diagnostic radiation procedures.

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Notes

  1. In this study, mortality follow-up was conducted through record linkage with the Canadian Mortality Database using probabilistic linkage. The term "record linkage" refers to the process of comparing two or more records which contain identifying information to determine whether those records refer to the same individual enrolled in a cohort study. In the absence of personal identifying numbers which would allow definitive linkage to mortality outcomes (social insurance numbers were not introduced in Canada until 1964 while the study is based on the medical records for patients first admitted for treatment during 1930–1952), study investigators used a combination of identifying items such as surname; given name; day, month, and year of birth to conduct a linkage. Each pair of linked records was assigned a probabilistic weight which depends on the likelihood of the link being true (Howe 1998). A cutoff value was then used to separate possibly true links with higher linkage weights from those less likely to be true. A higher cutoff point for the internal dose–response analysis was used to avoid dilution of any association due to the presence of false positives (i.e., false linkages); the change in cutoff would not be expected to bias estimates of relative risk. Under quite general conditions, potentially substantial bias could be introduced by using absolute risk models. Therefore, analyses with EAR models should not be performed with the CFCS data because the linkage of the cohort with the mortality registry is probabilistic which could affect absolute mortality but not relative mortality models (Zablotska et al. 2014).

  2. Co-factor(s) Z, such as sex, age at first exposure or dose fractionation are often referred to in radiation epidemiology as risk effect modifiers because they are factors that modulate the main central risk per unit dose estimate.

  3. Duration of fluoroscopic procedures, respectively, fluoroscopy screenings refers to the timespan over which fluoroscopic examinations were provided.

  4. It is noted that the two-line spline model is nested with the LNT model. This can be seen in Figure S1 of the Online Resource: The two-line spline model is nested with the LTH model and the latter is nested with the LNT model (in general, Model A is nested in Model B if the parameters in Model A are a subset of the parameters in Model B). The reason why the two-line spline model was nonetheless included into Occam’s group is explained on pages 15 and 16 of the Online Resource.

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Acknowledgements

This work was supported by a project from the Federal Office for Radiation Protection (BfS) (contract no. 3615S42221). The project has also received funding from the Euratom research and training program 2014-2018 under grant agreement No 755523 (MEDIRAD). Dr. Zablotska’s work was supported by the National Cancer Institute of the National Institutes of Health (award numbers R03CA188614 and R01CA197422). We thank Dr. Michaela Kreuzer (BfS) for valuable comments related to a project report for BfS and for her support of the BfS project mentioned above. We would also like to thank Dr. Peter Jacob (RADRISK, D-83727 Schliersee) and Dr. Axel Böttger at the Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMU) and the BMU for enabling the BfS project. We are very grateful to the reviewers for taking the time to perform the reviews and for their valuable comments.

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The Online Resource provides in Table S1 characteristics of the Canadian Fluoroscopy Cohort Study Data. Subsequently, the baseline model from Simonetto et al. (2014) that had been developed for the Mayak workers cohort is presented. This is followed by the baseline model applied in the present study. Page 7 gives the mathematical form of all dose–response models that were tested in the present study. The next section provides a detailed explanation how the AIC-weights are calculated for both, the sparse and rich model approaches. It supplies an equation that was used to calculate the normalized AIC-weights given in Table 3 (main text). Page 10 contains the section “Software” and gives a brief introduction to the software package used for the analyses. Figure S1 provides the number of model parameters for the applied dose–response models and relation between the models regarding their nestedness. Table S2 supplies model parameters (baseline and radiation-associated), maximum likelihood estimates and Wald-type standard errors for the four final non-nested models that were used for MMI (sparse model approach). The next section gives a detailed description of how the model selection was performed according to the sparse model approach. This is followed by Table S3 on page 17. This table is an extension of Table 3 (main text) and provides the results of fitting the dose–response models from Fig. 1 as ERR models to the CFCS data. Among other information, the final deviance values are provided together with the AIC-values, normalized and bilateral AIC-weights. All of this information is given for the sparse and the rich model approaches. Figure S2 shows the baseline cases as predicted by the ERR-LNT model versus attained age with the secular trend together with crude rates. The references are provided on page 21. (DOC 235 kb)

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Schöllnberger, H., Kaiser, J.C., Eidemüller, M. et al. Radio-biologically motivated modeling of radiation risks of mortality from ischemic heart diseases in the Canadian fluoroscopy cohort study. Radiat Environ Biophys 59, 63–78 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00411-019-00819-9

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