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Prognostic models for estimating survival of salivary duct carcinoma: a population-based study

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Abstract

Purpose

In a large salivary duct carcinoma (SDC) cohort, we aimed to investigate the clinical factors influencing their survival outcomes and to further establish prognostic models.

Methods

Data of patients with SDC were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database (1975–2019). A retrospective analysis was conducted to explore the prognostic factors on overall survival (OS) and disease-specific survival (DSS), and corresponding nomograms were established.

Results

A steady upward trend in the incidence of SDC was observed over the past four decades. Totally, 399 patients (280 in the training set and 199 in the testing set) were enrolled. Advanced T stage, lymph node metastasis, distant metastasis, and surgery were associated with favorable OS and DSS. Besides, age > 80 years exhibited worse OS. The selected variables above were used to construct nomograms and online web calculators that could accurately predict patient survival. In addition, risk stratification systems were generated to identify low- and high-risk patients. As the risk level increased, the risk of both patient mortality and disease-specific mortality increased.

Conclusions

The SDC incidence was low, but steadily increasing. The proposed prognostic models provided a robust and efficient approach to predict survival and risk stratification in SDC patients.

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Availability of data and materials

Not available.

Abbreviations

AUC:

Area under the curve

C-index:

Concordance index

DCA:

Decision curve analysis

DMFS:

Distant metastasis-free survival

LNR:

Lymph node ratio

ROC:

Receiver operating characteristic

SDC:

Salivary duct carcinoma

SGCs:

Salivary gland cancers

SEER:

Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results

OS:

Overall survival

DSS:

Disease-specific survival

HR:

Risk ratio

CI:

Confidence interval

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Acknowledgements

The authors acknowledge the efforts of the SEER Program tumor registries in the creation of the SEER database and thank all the patients analyzed in this study.

Funding

None to declare.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Medical Oncology, National Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Chaoyang District, Panjiayuan nanli No.17, Beijing, 100021, China

    Di Zhang & Lixi Li

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Contributions

DZ and LL conceived and designed the study. DZ analyzed data and wrote the paper, and LL make suggestion and revised the paper. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.

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Correspondence to Lixi Li.

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Zhang, D., Li, L. Prognostic models for estimating survival of salivary duct carcinoma: a population-based study. Eur Arch Otorhinolaryngol 280, 1939–1954 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00405-022-07755-3

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