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Nomograms predicting prognosis for locally advanced hypopharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma

  • Head and Neck
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European Archives of Oto-Rhino-Laryngology Aims and scope Submit manuscript

A Letter to the Editor to this article was published on 05 November 2021

Abstract

Purpose

This study aimed to construct nomograms to predict the overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) for patients with locally advanced hypopharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (HSCC).

Methods

864 patients with locally advanced HSCC during 2010–2015 from the surveillance, epidemiology and end results (SEER) database were selected. After classifying continuous data by risk, Cox regression analyses were applied to detect significant independent prognostic factors, with which nomograms were established. To evaluate the value of nomograms, concordance index (C-index), area under the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC), calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA), Kaplan–Meier analysis was adopted. The efficacy of surgery in different risk groups was also studied to figure out people who can benefit from surgery.

Results

A total of 864 locally advanced HSCC patients were randomized into the training cohort (n = 608) and the validation cohort (n = 256). Age, race, tumor size, T stage, N stage, primary site, radiotherapy, and chemotherapy were independent prognostic factors for OS and CSS (except race) and formed the nomograms. The nomograms revealed satisfied performance in C-index, AUC, DCA, and calibration curves, and prevailed over American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) TNM staging system in predicting OS and CSS. After risk stratification, patients of low-risk group resulted in the best outcomes. Patients in moderate-risk may benefit from surgery.

Conclusions

Convenient and well-calibrated nomograms to predict OS and CSS for III/IVA/IVB-stage HSCC patients were set up and assessed and may do a favor to make clinical decisions.

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Data availability

Data were publicly accessible which can be obtained in the SEER database.

Abbreviations

OS:

Overall survival

CSS:

Cancer-specific survival

HSCC:

Locally advanced hypopharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma

SEER:

Surveillance, epidemiology, and end results

C-index:

Concordance index

DCA:

Decision curve analysis

ROC:

Receiver-operating characteristic

AUC:

Area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve

AJCC:

American Joint Committee on cancer

TNM:

Tumor node metastasis

ICD-O-3:

Third Edition of the International Classification of Diseases for Oncology

HR:

Hazard ratio

CI:

Confidential intervals

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Acknowledgements

Thanks to all patients and authors who have contributed to the study.

Funding

Not applicable.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Oncology, Xiangya Hospital, Central South University, Changsha, 410008, China

    Huiyun Yang

  2. Department of Oncology, The First People’s Hospital of Changde, Changde, 415000, China

    Mengsi Zeng

  3. Department of Oncology, Third Xiangya Hospital, Central South University, Changsha, 410000, China

    Sudan Cao & Long Jin

Authors
  1. Huiyun Yang
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  2. Mengsi Zeng
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  3. Sudan Cao
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  4. Long Jin
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Contributions

Conception and design of the study: MSZ and LJ; acquisition of data: LJ; analysis and interpretation of the data: HYY; contributed reagents/materials/analysis tools: SDC; writing and revision of the manuscript: HYY and LJ. All authors reviewed the manuscript.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Long Jin.

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Conflict of interest

The authors declare no conflict of interest. There are no financial conflicts of interest to disclose.

Ethics committee approval and patient consent

All data from the SEER database are de-identified prior to publication to the public, so the cases extracted from the SEER database do not contain any personal identifying information and, therefore, no ethical approval is required for this study.

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Yang, H., Zeng, M., Cao, S. et al. Nomograms predicting prognosis for locally advanced hypopharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma. Eur Arch Otorhinolaryngol 279, 3041–3052 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00405-021-07109-5

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00405-021-07109-5

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