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Nomogram for predicting postoperative deep vein thrombosis in patients with spinal fractures caused by high-energy injuries

  • Orthopaedic Surgery
  • Published:
Archives of Orthopaedic and Trauma Surgery Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Objective

Deep venous thrombosis (DVT) is a common complication in patients with spinal fractures caused by high-energy injuries. Early identification of patients at high risk of postoperative DVT is essential for the prevention of thrombosis. This study aimed to develop and validate a prediction model based on a nomogram to predict DVT in patients with spinal fractures caused by high-energy injuries.

Methods

Clinical data were collected from 936 patients admitted to our hospital between January 2016 and December 2021 with spinal fractures caused by high-energy injuries. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to identify the risk factors for postoperative DVT and to develop a nomogram. The predictive performance of the nomogram was evaluated by the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and calibration curve.

Results

The incidence of preoperative DVT was 15.38% (144/936). The postoperative incidence of DVT was 20.5% (192/936). The multivariate analysis revealed that age, operation time, blood transfusion, duration of bed rest, American Spinal Injury Association (ASIA) score and D-dimer were risk factors for postoperative DVT. The area under the ROC curve of the nomogram was 0.835 and the calibration curve showed good calibration.

Conclusions

The nomogram showed a good ability to predict postoperative DVT in patients with spinal fractures caused by high-energy injuries, which may benefit pre- and postoperative DVT prophylaxis strategy development.

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Funding

This work was supported by the Baoding Science and Technology Bureau project (Grant number 2041ZF100).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Ultrasound Medicine, Baoding No.1 Central Hospital, Baoding, 071000, People’s Republic of China

    Bing Lv

  2. Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, Baoding No.1 Central Hospital, 320 Changcheng North Street, Baoding, 071000, Hebei, People’s Republic of China

    Haiying Wang, Zipeng Zhang, Weifeng Li, Gefeng Han, Xiangdong Liu & Cheng Zhang

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  1. Bing Lv
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  2. Haiying Wang
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  3. Zipeng Zhang
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  4. Weifeng Li
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  5. Gefeng Han
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  6. Xiangdong Liu
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  7. Cheng Zhang
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Correspondence to Haiying Wang.

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Conflict of interest

The author (s) declared no potential conflicts of interest with respect to the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article.

Ethical approval

The Ethics Committee of Baoding No.1 Central Hospital approved this study.

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Informed consent for our study was obtained from all patients.

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Cite this article

Lv, B., Wang, H., Zhang, Z. et al. Nomogram for predicting postoperative deep vein thrombosis in patients with spinal fractures caused by high-energy injuries. Arch Orthop Trauma Surg 144, 171–177 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00402-023-05085-5

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00402-023-05085-5

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