Skip to main content

Coffee and caffeine intake and incidence of type 2 diabetes mellitus: a meta-analysis of prospective studies



Coffee and caffeine have been linked to type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). A dose–response meta-analysis of prospective studies was conducted to assess the association between coffee and caffeine intake and T2DM incidence.


Pertinent studies were identified by a search of PubMed and EMBASE. The fixed- or random-effect pooled measure was selected based on between-study heterogeneity. Dose–response relationship was assessed by restricted cubic spline.


Compared with the lowest level, the pooled relative risk (95 % CI) of T2DM was 0.71 (0.67–0.76) for the highest level of coffee intake (26 articles involving 50,595 T2DM cases and 1,096,647 participants), 0.79 (0.69–0.91) for the highest level of decaffeinated coffee intake (10 articles involving 29,165 T2DM cases and 491,485 participants) and 0.70 (0.65–0.75) for the highest level of caffeine intake (6 articles involving 9,302 T2DM cases and 321,960 participants). The association of coffee, decaffeinated coffee and caffeine intake with T2DM incidence was stronger for women than that for men. A stronger association of coffee intake with T2DM incidence was found for non-smokers and subjects with body mass index <25 kg/m2. Dose–response analysis suggested that incidence of T2DM decreased by 12 % [0.88 (0.86–0.90)] for every 2 cups/day increment in coffee intake, 11 % [0.89 (0.82–0.98)] for every 2 cups/day increment in decaffeinated coffee intake and 14 % [0.86 (0.82–0.91)] for every 200 mg/day increment in caffeine intake.


Coffee and caffeine intake might significantly reduce the incidence of T2DM.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution.

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3


  1. 1.

    Danaei G, Finucane MM, Lu Y et al (2011) National, regional, and global trends in fasting plasma glucose and diabetes prevalence since 1980: systematic analysis of health examination surveys and epidemiological studies with 370 country-years and 2.7 million participants. Lancet 9785:31–40

    Article  Google Scholar 

  2. 2.

    Zhang P, Zhang X, Brown J et al (2010) Global healthcare expenditure on diabetes for 2010 and 2030. Diabetes Res Clin Pract 3:293–301

    Article  Google Scholar 

  3. 3.

    International Coffee Organization, accessed on 1/6/2013

  4. 4.

    Natella F, Scaccini C (2012) Role of coffee in modulation of diabetes risk. Nutr Rev 4:207–217

    Article  Google Scholar 

  5. 5.

    van Dieren S, Uiterwaal CS, van der Schouw YT et al (2009) Coffee and tea consumption and risk of type 2 diabetes. Diabetologia 12:2561–2569

    Article  Google Scholar 

  6. 6.

    Boggs DA, Rosenberg L, Ruiz-Narvaez EA, Palmer JR (2010) Coffee, tea, and alcohol intake in relation to risk of type 2 diabetes in African American women. Am J Clin Nutr 4:960–966

    Article  Google Scholar 

  7. 7.

    Oba S, Nagata C, Nakamura K et al (2010) Consumption of coffee, green tea, oolong tea, black tea, chocolate snacks and the caffeine content in relation to risk of diabetes in Japanese men and women. Br J Nutr 3:453–459

    Article  Google Scholar 

  8. 8.

    Sartorelli DS, Fagherazzi G, Balkau B et al (2010) Differential effects of coffee on the risk of type 2 diabetes according to meal consumption in a French cohort of women: the E3N/EPIC cohort study. Am J Clin Nutr 4:1002–1012

    Article  Google Scholar 

  9. 9.

    Hjellvik V, Tverdal A, Strom H (2011) Boiled coffee intake and subsequent risk for type 2 diabetes. Epidemiology 3:418–421

    Article  Google Scholar 

  10. 10.

    Zhang Y, Lee ET, Cowan LD, Fabsitz RR, Howard BV (2011) Coffee consumption and the incidence of type 2 diabetes in men and women with normal glucose tolerance: the Strong Heart Study. Nutr Metab Cardiovasc Dis 6:418–423

    Article  Google Scholar 

  11. 11.

    Floegel A, Pischon T, Bergmann MM, Teucher B, Kaaks R, Boeing H (2012) Coffee consumption and risk of chronic disease in the European prospective investigation into cancer and nutrition (EPIC)-Germany study. Am J Clin Nutr 4:901–908

    Article  Google Scholar 

  12. 12.

    Bhupathiraju SN, Pan A, Malik VS et al (2013) Caffeinated and caffeine-free beverages and risk of type 2 diabetes. Am J Clin Nutr 1:155–166

    Article  Google Scholar 

  13. 13.

    Doo T, Morimoto Y, Steinbrecher A, Kolonel LN, Maskarinec G (2013) Coffee intake and risk of type 2 diabetes: the multiethnic cohort. Public Health Nutr 27:1–9

    Google Scholar 

  14. 14.

    Larsson SC, Orsini N (2011) Coffee consumption and risk of stroke: a dose–response meta-analysis of prospective studies. Am J Epidemiol 9:993–1001

    Article  Google Scholar 

  15. 15.

    Higgins JP, Thompson SG, Deeks JJ, Altman DG (2003) Measuring inconsistency in meta-analyses. BMJ 7414:557–560

    Article  Google Scholar 

  16. 16.

    Orsini N, Li R, Wolk A, Khudyakov P, Spiegelman D (2012) Meta-analysis for linear and nonlinear dose–response relations: examples, an evaluation of approximations, and software. Am J Epidemiol 1:66–73

    Article  Google Scholar 

  17. 17.

    Orsini N, Bellocco R, Greenland S (2006) Generalized least squares for trend estimation of summarized dose–response data. Stata Journal 6:40–57

    Google Scholar 

  18. 18.

    Jackson D, White IR, Thompson SG (2010) Extending DerSimonian and Laird’s methodology to perform multivariate random effects meta-analyses. Stat Med 12:1282–1297

    Google Scholar 

  19. 19.

    Tuomilehto J, Hu G, Bidel S, Lindstrom J, Jousilahti P (2004) Coffee consumption and risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus among middle-aged Finnish men and women. JAMA 10:1213–1219

    Article  Google Scholar 

  20. 20.

    Bidel S, Silventoinen K, Hu G, Lee DH, Kaprio J, Tuomilehto J (2008) Coffee consumption, serum gamma-glutamyltransferase and risk of type II diabetes. Eur J Clin Nutr 2:178–185

    Article  Google Scholar 

  21. 21.

    de Koning L, Malik VS, Rimm EB, Willett WC, Hu FB (2011) Sugar-sweetened and artificially sweetened beverage consumption and risk of type 2 diabetes in men. Am J Clin Nutr 6:1321–1327

    Article  Google Scholar 

  22. 22.

    von Ruesten A, Feller S, Bergmann MM, Boeing H (2013) Diet and risk of chronic diseases: results from the first 8 years of follow-up in the EPIC-Potsdam study. Eur J Clin Nutr 4:412–419

    Article  Google Scholar 

  23. 23.

    Hu G, Jousilahti P, Peltonen M, Bidel S, Tuomilehto J (2006) Joint association of coffee consumption and other factors to the risk of type 2 diabetes: a prospective study in Finland. Int J Obes (Lond) 12:1742–1749

    Article  Google Scholar 

  24. 24.

    Goto A, Song Y, Chen BH, Manson JE, Buring JE, Liu S (2011) Coffee and caffeine consumption in relation to sex hormone-binding globulin and risk of type 2 diabetes in postmenopausal women. Diabetes 1:269–275

    Article  Google Scholar 

  25. 25.

    van Dam RM, Feskens EJ (2002) Coffee consumption and risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus. Lancet 9344:1477–1478

    Google Scholar 

  26. 26.

    Reunanen A, Heliovaara M, Aho K (2003) Coffee consumption and risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus. Lancet 9358:702–703 author reply 703

    Article  Google Scholar 

  27. 27.

    Saremi A, Tulloch-Reid M, Knowler WC (2003) Coffee consumption and the incidence of type 2 diabetes. Diabetes Care 7:2211–2212

    Article  Google Scholar 

  28. 28.

    Carlsson S, Hammar N, Grill V, Kaprio J (2004) Coffee consumption and risk of type 2 diabetes in Finnish twins. Int J Epidemiol 3:616–617

    Article  Google Scholar 

  29. 29.

    Rosengren A, Dotevall A, Wilhelmsen L, Thelle D, Johansson S (2004) Coffee and incidence of diabetes in Swedish women: a prospective 18-year follow-up study. J Intern Med 1:89–95

    Article  Google Scholar 

  30. 30.

    Salazar-Martinez E, Willett WC, Ascherio A et al (2004) Coffee consumption and risk for type 2 diabetes mellitus. Ann Intern Med 1:1–8

    Article  Google Scholar 

  31. 31.

    van Dam RM, Dekker JM, Nijpels G, Stehouwer CD, Bouter LM, Heine RJ (2004) Coffee consumption and incidence of impaired fasting glucose, impaired glucose tolerance, and type 2 diabetes: the Hoorn Study. Diabetologia 12:2152–2159

    Article  Google Scholar 

  32. 32.

    Greenberg JA, Axen KV, Schnoll R, Boozer CN (2005) Coffee, tea and diabetes: the role of weight loss and caffeine. Int J Obes (Lond) 9:1121–1129

    Article  Google Scholar 

  33. 33.

    Iso H, Date C, Wakai K, Fukui M, Tamakoshi A (2006) The relationship between green tea and total caffeine intake and risk for self-reported type 2 diabetes among Japanese adults. Ann Intern Med 8:554–562

    Article  Google Scholar 

  34. 34.

    Paynter NP, Yeh HC, Voutilainen S et al (2006) Coffee and sweetened beverage consumption and the risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus: the atherosclerosis risk in communities study. Am J Epidemiol 11:1075–1084

    Article  Google Scholar 

  35. 35.

    Pereira MA, Parker ED, Folsom AR (2006) Coffee consumption and risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus: an 11-year prospective study of 28 812 postmenopausal women. Arch Intern Med 12:1311–1316

    Article  Google Scholar 

  36. 36.

    Smith B, Wingard DL, Smith TC, Kritz-Silverstein D, Barrett-Connor E (2006) Does coffee consumption reduce the risk of type 2 diabetes in individuals with impaired glucose? Diabetes Care 11:2385–2390

    Article  Google Scholar 

  37. 37.

    van Dam RM, Willett WC, Manson JE, Hu FB (2006) Coffee, caffeine, and risk of type 2 diabetes: a prospective cohort study in younger and middle-aged US women. Diabetes Care 2:398–403

    Google Scholar 

  38. 38.

    Hamer M, Witte DR, Mosdol A, Marmot MG, Brunner EJ (2008) Prospective study of coffee and tea consumption in relation to risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus among men and women: the Whitehall II study. Br J Nutr 5:1046–1053

    Article  Google Scholar 

  39. 39.

    Odegaard AO, Pereira MA, Koh WP, Arakawa K, Lee HP, Yu MC (2008) Coffee, tea, and incident type 2 diabetes: the Singapore Chinese Health Study. Am J Clin Nutr 4:979–985

    Google Scholar 

  40. 40.

    Fuhrman BJ, Smit E, Crespo CJ, Garcia-Palmieri MR (2009) Coffee intake and risk of incident diabetes in Puerto Rican men: results from the Puerto Rico Heart Health Program. Public Health Nutr 6:842–848

    Article  Google Scholar 

  41. 41.

    Kato M, Noda M, Inoue M, Kadowaki T, Tsugane S (2009) Psychological factors, coffee and risk of diabetes mellitus among middle-aged Japanese: a population-based prospective study in the JPHC study cohort. Endocr J 3:459–468

    Article  Google Scholar 

  42. 42.

    Wedick NM, Brennan AM, Sun Q, Hu FB, Mantzoros CS, van Dam RM (2011) Effects of caffeinated and decaffeinated coffee on biological risk factors for type 2 diabetes: a randomized controlled trial. Nutr J 10:93

    Google Scholar 

  43. 43.

    Loopstra-Masters RC, Liese AD, Haffner SM, Wagenknecht LE, Hanley AJ (2011) Associations between the intake of caffeinated and decaffeinated coffee and measures of insulin sensitivity and beta cell function. Diabetologia 2:320–328

    Article  Google Scholar 

  44. 44.

    Imatoh T, Tanihara S, Miyazaki M, Momose Y, Uryu Y, Une H (2011) Coffee consumption but not green tea consumption is associated with adiponectin levels in Japanese males. Eur J Nutr 4:279–284

    Article  Google Scholar 

  45. 45.

    Kempf K, Herder C, Erlund I et al (2010) Effects of coffee consumption on subclinical inflammation and other risk factors for type 2 diabetes: a clinical trial. Am J Clin Nutr 4:950–957

    Article  Google Scholar 

  46. 46.

    Greenberg JA, Owen DR, Geliebter A (2010) Decaffeinated coffee and glucose metabolism in young men. Diabetes Care 2:278–280

    Article  Google Scholar 

  47. 47.

    Wu T, Willett WC, Hankinson SE, Giovannucci E (2005) Caffeinated coffee, decaffeinated coffee, and caffeine in relation to plasma C-peptide levels, a marker of insulin secretion, in US women. Diabetes Care 6:1390–1396

    Article  Google Scholar 

  48. 48.

    van Dijk AE, Olthof MR, Meeuse JC, Seebus E, Heine RJ, van Dam RM (2009) Acute effects of decaffeinated coffee and the major coffee components chlorogenic acid and trigonelline on glucose tolerance. Diabetes Care 6:1023–1025

    Article  Google Scholar 

  49. 49.

    Dong JY, Xun P, He K, Qin LQ (2011) Magnesium intake and risk of type 2 diabetes: meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies. Diabetes Care 9:2116–2122

    Article  Google Scholar 

  50. 50.

    Astrup A, Toubro S, Cannon S, Hein P, Breum L, Madsen J (1990) Caffeine: a double-blind, placebo-controlled study of its thermogenic, metabolic, and cardiovascular effects in healthy volunteers. Am J Clin Nutr 5:759–767

    Google Scholar 

  51. 51.

    Willi C, Bodenmann P, Ghali WA, Faris PD, Cornuz J (2007) Active smoking and the risk of type 2 diabetes: a systematic review and meta-analysis. JAMA 22:2654–2664

    Article  Google Scholar 

  52. 52.

    Zevin S, Benowitz NL (1999) Drug interactions with tobacco smoking. An update. Clin Pharmacokinet 6:425–438

    Article  Google Scholar 

  53. 53.

    Vazquez G, Duval S, Jacobs DR, Jr., Silventoinen K (2007) Comparison of body mass index, waist circumference, and waist/hip ratio in predicting incident diabetes: a meta-analysis. Epidemiol Rev 29:115–128

    Google Scholar 

  54. 54.

    Huxley R, Lee CM, Barzi F et al (2009) Coffee, decaffeinated coffee, and tea consumption in relation to incident type 2 diabetes mellitus: a systematic review with meta-analysis. Arch Intern Med 22:2053–2063

    Article  Google Scholar 

  55. 55.

    Bohlscheid-Thomas S, Hoting I, Boeing H, Wahrendorf J (1997) Reproducibility and relative validity of food group intake in a food frequency questionnaire developed for the German part of the EPIC project. European prospective investigation into cancer and nutrition. Int J Epidemiol 26:S59–70

    Google Scholar 

  56. 56.

    Feskanich D, Rimm EB, Giovannucci EL et al (1993) Reproducibility and validity of food intake measurements from a semiquantitative food frequency questionnaire. J Am Diet Assoc 7:790–796

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Conflict of interest


Author information



Corresponding author

Correspondence to Dongfeng Zhang.

Electronic supplementary material

Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.

Supplementary material 1 (PDF 85 kb)

Rights and permissions

Reprints and Permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Jiang, X., Zhang, D. & Jiang, W. Coffee and caffeine intake and incidence of type 2 diabetes mellitus: a meta-analysis of prospective studies. Eur J Nutr 53, 25–38 (2014).

Download citation


  • Coffee
  • Caffeine
  • Type 2 diabetes mellitus
  • Dose–response meta-analysis