International Journal of Colorectal Disease

, Volume 33, Issue 8, pp 1107–1114 | Cite as

Real-world study of a novel prognostic scoring system: for a more precise prognostication and better clinical treatment guidance in stages II and III colon cancer

  • Qi Liu
  • Yanlei Ma
  • Dakui Luo
  • Sanjun Cai
  • Qingguo LiEmail author
  • Xinxiang LiEmail author
Original Article



This study aimed to improve the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) Tumor Node Metastases (TNM) staging system and demonstrate the improvement in prognostic accuracy and clinical management guidance in colon cancer using the novel prognostic score (P score).


Eligible patients were identified using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. A P score (based on age, tumor size, and tumor grade) was assigned to each patient. The Cox proportional hazards regression analyses were performed to identify independent factors associated with prognosis. The Kaplan–Meier survival curves were used to analyze the prognosis of patients with colon cancer with different P scores. The TNM staging system was compared with the P score in stages I–IV by calculating the concordance index.


The multivariate Cox analysis indicated that a higher P score was independently associated with a higher risk of cancer-specific mortality. The Kaplan–Meier survival curves showed that the survival benefit gradually increased as the P score decreased. The concordance index rose from 0.5, 0.593, 0.633, and 0.551 of AJCC TNM staging system to 0.709, 0.651, 0.691, and 0.623 of P score in stages I–IV, respectively.


The P score was an independent prognostic factor of colon cancer and had a much better prognostic accuracy than the AJCC TNM staging system in all patients with colon cancer. It may help in identifying patients with high-risk stage II colon cancer who were candidates for adjuvant therapy and differentiating patients with stage III colon cancer for adjuvant therapy.


Prognostic score Stage II Stage III Colon cancer SEER 



The authors acknowledge the effort that went into compiling and maintaining the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program (SEER) tumor registries, including the interpretation and reporting of these data.


This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 81702353 and 81772599) and Shanghai Municipal Natural Science Foundation (17ZR1406400). The funders had no role in the study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.

Compliance with ethical standards

Competing interests

The authors declare that they have no conflicts of interest.

Supplementary material

384_2018_3071_MOESM1_ESM.docx (17 kb)
ESM 1 (DOCX 17 kb)


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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2018

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Department of Colorectal SurgeryFudan University Shanghai Cancer CenterShanghaiChina
  2. 2.Department of Oncology, Shanghai Medical CollegeFudan UniversityShanghaiChina

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