Internal variability of regional climate models

Abstract

 Two regional climate models have been applied to the task of generating an ensemble of realizations of the year 1982 with observed boundary conditions in areas covering parts of the Mediterranean countries. These realizations were generated by applying boundary conditions from the ECMWF ERA reanalysis project consecutively, carrying over the soil variables from the regional models from one iteration to the next. Monthly mean fields for six iterations of each model have been used as statistical ensembles in order to investigate the internal variability of the regional model dynamics. This internal variability is a necessary consequence of the non-linear physical feedback mechanisms of the RCM being active. A small value of internal variability will give better statistics for climate sensitivity signals, but will make these results less credible. The internal variability is important for the quantitative assessment of a climate sensitivity signal. With the present choice of models and integration domains the internal variabilities of surface fields and precipitation do reach levels that are less than, but in summer of comparable order of magnitude to, corresponding atmospheric variabilities of an atmospheric general circulation model.