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An analogue model to derive additional climate change scenarios from existing GCM simulations

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 Changes in land surface driving variables, predicted by GCM transient climate change experiments, are confirmed to exhibit linearity in the global mean land temperature anomaly, ΔT l . The associated constants of proportionality retain spatial and seasonal characteristics of the GCM output, whilst ΔT l is related to radiative forcing anomalies. The resultant analogue model is shown to be robust between GCM runs and as such provides a computationally efficient technique of extending existing GCM experiments to a large range of climate change scenarios. As an example impacts study, the analogue model is used to drive a terrestrial ecosystem model, and predicted changes in terrestrial carbon are found to be similar to those when using GCM anomalies directly.

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Received: 4 January 1999 / Accepted: 11 December 1999

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Huntingford, C., Cox, P. An analogue model to derive additional climate change scenarios from existing GCM simulations. Climate Dynamics 16, 575–586 (2000).

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