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The changing pattern of global teleconnection and the seasonal precipitation in the High Mountain Asia region

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Abstract

Using fifth-generation ECMWF Atmospheric Reanalysis (ERA-5) we investigate the topical changes in global teleconnection with seasonal precipitation dynamics in the backdrop of climate change particularly for the recent 20 years (L20:2002 to 2021) with respect to the previous 20 years (F20: 1982–2001). It unveils a considerable decrease in both monsoon and pre-monsoon precipitation over the Northwest Himalaya (NWH) in the Indian region and a decline in winter precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau (TP). Statistically robust K-S test shows notable changes (5% significance level) in the regional distribution of the atmospheric parameters in parts of the High Mountain Asia (HMA) region in recent decades (L20). Further, a weakening of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influence on precipitation pattern is noted in the L20 (2002–2021) compared to the F20 (1982–2001) years over parts of the HMA region. A regional heterogeneity is perceptible among different parts of HMA i.e. NWH in the Indian region and the TP. The NWH precipitation shows a diametrically opposite relation with the NAO index for winter precipitation in L20 (correlation coefficient R= -0.18, sample size: 240) compared to a positive correlation in F20 (correlation coefficient R = 0.15, sample size: 240) which is significant at 5% significance level. The plausible reasons for such a diametrical change in the relationship during winter are addressed by examining the changing signature of the subtropical jet stream and its relationship with NAO and ENSO. Sea surface temperature shows cooling of the tropical Pacific and the resulting weakening in El-Nino signatures in recent years. Our results point to the noteworthy changes in the atmospheric circulation pattern over the HMA region in recent decades which is attributed to the alteration in the global teleconnection patterns and subsequent their association with the precipitation distribution over the HMA region. This study would be useful for an improved understanding of the precipitation dynamics over the HMA region and global teleconnections in the future.

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The datasets used in this study are all freely available and the details are mentioned in Sect. 3 of the manuscript.

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Acknowledgements

The authors would like to thank IIRS for the encouragement and support. This work is a part of ISRO project. The authors are thankful to the scientific team (Hersbach, et al., 2020) for developing the ERA-5 Reanalysis dataset and providing it free of cost for research purpose. The data can be downloaded freely from https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/.

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SR: Data curation; methodology; formal analysis; investigation; software; validation; visualization; writing – original draft; writing – review and editing. CS:Conceptualization; methodology; formal analysis; investigation; project administration; software; supervision; writing – original draft; writing – review and editing.

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Correspondence to Charu Singh.

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Roy, S., Singh, C. The changing pattern of global teleconnection and the seasonal precipitation in the High Mountain Asia region. Clim Dyn (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-024-07300-4

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-024-07300-4

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