Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Characterization of wet and dry periods over southern South America

  • Original Article
  • Published:
Climate Dynamics Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

This study characterizes wet and dry conditions in southern South America, defined through the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), considering short and long timescales. Prior to analysis, a regionalization was conducted considering the area’s diverse climatological regimes, employing a combination of the k-means clustering algorithm and principal component analysis. Dry and wet events were analyzed over six homogeneous regions, defined as wet or dry conditions with time and spatial coherence. Generally, smaller events (< 100,000 Km²) were prevalent monthly, while larger events (> 50% of a region) occurred less frequently and varied in size over time. Event intensity varied, with no prolonged preference for a specific intensity. Certain regions, notably southern Bolivia and northwestern Argentina showed a discernible tendency towards drier conditions over time, with wet events becoming more intense despite reduced coverage. The events defined with shorter SPEI timescales showed similar behavior to those defined with longer SPEI timescales but with higher month-to-month variability and less spatial coherence. A wavelet analysis revealed punctual, significant periods on the interannual timescale and more persistent ones on the interdecadal and decadal timescales. Mechanisms associated with event behavior were analyzed. Characterizing events in terms of their intensity, duration, and spatial extent revealed that moderate events were predominantly short (< 3 months) while longer and more extended events were often severe. Events calculated with shorter SPEI timescales showed smaller durations than those calculated with longer SPEI timescales. In addition, wet events showed a similar proportion of moderate and severe cases, while dry events were predominantly moderate.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8

Similar content being viewed by others

Data availability

All datasets used in this study were obtained from publicly available sources.

The CPC precipitation and temperature data is available online at https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/index.html.

References

  • Agosta EA, Hurtado SI, Martin PB (2020) Easterlies-induced precipitation in eastern Patagonia: seasonal influences of ENSO’s FLAVOURS and SAM. Int J Climatol 40(13):5464–5484

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Akinremi O, McGinn S, Barr A (1996) Evaluation of the Palmer drought index on the Canadian prairies. J Clim 9(5):897–905

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Aliaga VS, Ferrelli F, Piccolo MC (2017) Regionalization of climate over the Argentine pampas. Int J Climatol 37:1237–1247

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Alley WM (1984) The palmer drought severity index: limitations and assumptions. J Appl Meteorol Climatology 23(7):1100–1109

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Balmaceda-Huarte R, Olmo ME, Bettolli ML, Poggi MM (2021) Evaluation of multiple reanalyses in reproducing the spatio-temporal variability of temperature and precipitation indices over southern South America; John Wiley & Sons Ltd; International Journal of Climatology; 41; 12; 4-2021; 5572–5595

  • Barros V (2006) Adaptation to climate trends: lessons from the Argentine experience. Climate change and adaptation. Earthscan, London, UK, New York, NY, USA, pp 296–314

    Google Scholar 

  • Beguerıa S, Vicente-Serrano SM, Beguerıa MS (2017) Package ‘spei’. Calculation of the standardised precipitation-evapotranspiration index. CRAN [Package]

  • Berbery E, Mechoso C (2001) Climatology and hydrology of the Plata basin. Document of the VAMOS scientific study group on La Plata basin, http://meteo.umd.edu/berbery/lpb/laplata.html

  • Bettolli ML, Rivera JA, Penalba OC (2010) Regionalización De Los días secos en Argentina: Un enfoque metodológico. Meteorologica 35(2):67–80

    Google Scholar 

  • Bombardi RJ, Carvalho LMV (2011) The South Atlantic dipole and variations in the characteristics of the South American Monsoon in the WCRP-CMIP3 multi-model simulations. Clim Dyn 36:2091–2102

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bombardi RJ, Carvalho LM, Jones C, Reboita MS (2014) Precipitation over eastern South America and the South Atlantic Sea surface temperature during neutral ENSO periods. Clim Dyn 42:1553–1568

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Caliński T, Harabasz J (1974) A dendrite method for cluster analysis. Commun Statistics-theory Methods 3(1):1–27

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chen M, Shi W, Xie P, Silva VB, Kousky VE, Wayne Higgins R, Janowiak JE (2008) Assessing objective techniques for gauge-based analyses of global daily precipitation. J Geophys Research: Atmos, 113 (D4).

  • Comité Intergubernamental Coordinador de los Países de la Cuenca del Plata - CIC, O. d. l. E. A.-. O (2017) Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis-TDA and Strategic Action Program-SAP of the La Plata Basin: executive summary

  • de San Celedonio RP, Abeledo LG, Miralles DJ (2014) Identifying the critical period for waterlogging on yield and its components in wheat and barley. Plant Soil 378(1):265–277

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Du J, Fang J, Xu W, Shi P (2013) Analysis of dry/wet conditions using the standardized precipitation index and its potential usefulness for drought/flood monitoring in Hunan province, China. Stoch Env Res Risk Assess 27(2):377–387

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ferreira GW, Reboita MS (2022) A new look into the South America precipitation regimes: Observation and forecast. Atmosphere 13(6):873

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • González MH, Fernández AE (2007) Floods increasing in Buenos Aires Salado river basin. Environmental Change and Rational Water Use, International Geographical Unión. Argentina, Buenos Aires, pp 96–113

    Google Scholar 

  • Grimm AM (2011) Interannual climate variability in South America: impacts on seasonal precipitation, extreme events, and possible effects of climate change. Stoch Env Res Risk Assess 25:537–554

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Grimm AM, Saboia JPJ (2015) Interdecadal variability of the South American Precipitation in the Monsoon season. J Clim 28(2):755–775. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00046.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Grimm AM, Zilli MT (2009) Interannual variability and seasonal evolution of summer monsoon rainfall in South America. J Clim 22(9):2257–2275. https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JCLI1684.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Grimm AM, Barros VR, Doyle ME (2000) Climate variability in southern South America associated with El Niño and La Niña events. J Clim 13(1):35–58

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Grimm AM, Pal JS, Giorgi F (2007) Connection between Spring conditions and Peak Summer Monsoon Rainfall in South America: role of Soil Moisture, Surface temperature, and Topography in Eastern Brazil. J Clim 20(24):5929–5945. https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JCLI1684.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Grimm AM, Laureanti NC, Rodakoviski RB, Gama CB (2016) Interdecadal variability and extreme precipitation events in South America during the monsoon season. Climate Res 68(2–3):277–294

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Grimm AM, Almeida AS, Beneti CAA, Leite EA (2020) The combined effect of climate oscillations in producing extremes: the 2020 drought in southern Brazil, vol 25. RBRH, e48

  • Guttman NB (1998) Comparing the Palmer drought index and the standardized precipitation index 1. JAWRA. 34 (1), 113–121

  • Karl TR (1986) The sensitivity of the Palmer drought severity index and Palmer’s z-index to their calibration coefficients including potential evapotranspiration. J Climate Appl Meteorol, 77–86

  • Kidson JW (1999) Principal modes of southern hemisphere low-frequency variability obtained from NCEP–NCAR reanalyses. J Clim 12(9):2808–2830

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kuppel S, Houspanossian J, Nosetto MD, Jobbágy E (2015) What does it take to flood the pampas? Lessons from a decade of strong hydrological fluctuations. Water Resour Res 51(4):2937–2950

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Latrubesse EM, Brea D (2009) Floods in Argentina. Developments Earth Surf Processes 13:333–349

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Li S, Yao Z, Wang R, Liu Z (2020) Dryness/wetness pattern over the three-river headwater region: variation characteristic, causes, and drought risks. Int J Climatol 40(7):3550–3566

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Llano MP and Penalba OC (2011) A climatic analysis of dry sequences in Argentina. Int J Climatol, 31(4), 504–513.

  • Lovino MA, Müller OV, Berbery EH, Müller GV (2018a) How have daily climate extremes changed in the recent past over northeastern Argentina? Glob Planet Change 168:78–97

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lovino MA, Müller OV, Müller GV, Sgroi LC, Baethgen WE (2018b) Interannual-to-multidecadal hydroclimate variability and its sectoral impacts in northeastern Argentina. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 22(6):3155–3174

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lovino MA, Müller GV, Pierrestegui MJ, Espinosa E, Rodríguez L (2022) Extreme precipitation events in the Austral Chaco region of Argentina. Int J Climatol 42(11):5985–6006

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • MacQueen J (1967) Classification and analysis of multivariate observations. 5th Berkeley Symp. Math. Statist. Probability, 281–297

  • Magrin G, Travasso M, Baethgen W, Grondona M, Gimenez A, Cunha G, Castaño J, Rodriguez G (2007) Past and future changes in climate and their impacts on annual crops yield in south east South America. Proc. TGICA Workshop, 1

  • Mantua NJ, Hare SR (2002) The pacific decadal oscillation. J Oceanogr 58(1):35–44

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Manzano A, Clemente MA, Morata A, Luna MY, Beguería S, Vicente-Serrano SM, Martín ML (2019) Analysis of the atmospheric circulation pattern effects over SPEI drought index in Spain. Atmos Res 230:104630

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McEvoy DJ, Huntington JL, Abatzoglou JT, Edwards LM (2012) An evaluation of multiscalar drought indices in Nevada and eastern California. Earth Interact 16(18):1–18

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McKee TB, Doesken NJ, Kleist J et al (1993) The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales. Proc 8th Conf Appl Climatology 17(22):179–183

    Google Scholar 

  • Mo KC, Berbery EH (2011) Drought and persistent wet spells over South America based on observations and the US CLIVAR drought experiments. J Clim 24(6):1801–1820

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Morlet J, Arens G, Fourgeau E, Glard D (1982) Wave propagation and sampling theory—part i: Complex signal and scattering in multilayered media. Geophysics 47(2):203–221

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Naumann G, Vargas WM, Barbosa P, Blauhut V, Spinoni J, Vogt JV (2019) Dynamics of socioeconomic exposure, vulnerability and impacts of recent droughts in Argentina. Geosciences 9(1):39

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Palmer WC (1965) Meteorological drought (Vol. 30). US Department of Commerce, Weather Bureau

  • Parker D, Folland C, Scaife A, Knight J, Colman A, Baines P, Dong B (2007) Decadal to multidecadal variability and the climate change background. J Geophys Research: Atmos 112:D18

    Google Scholar 

  • Penland C, Sun DZ, Capotondi A, Vimont DJ (2010) A brief introduction to El Niño and La Niña. Wash DC Am Geophys Union Geophys Monogr Ser 189:53–64

    Google Scholar 

  • Roesch A, Schmidbauer H (2018) Waveletcomp: Computational wavelet analysis [R package version 1.1]. https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=WaveletComp

  • Scarpati OE, Capriolo AD (2013) Sequıas E inundaciones en la provincia de Buenos Aires (Argentina) y su distribución espacio-temporal. Investigaciones geográficas, (82), 38–51

  • Sgroi LC, Lovino MA, Berbery EH, Müller GV (2021) Characteristics of droughts in Argentina’s core crop region. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 25(5):2475–2490

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sheffield J, Andreadis K, Wood EF, Lettenmaier D (2009) Global and continental drought in the second half of the twentieth century: severity–area–duration analysis and temporal variability of large-scale events. J Clim 22(8):1962–1981

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Silvestri GE, Vera CS (2003) Antarctic Oscillation signal on precipitation anomalies over southeastern South America. Geophys Res Lett, 30(21)

  • Statements & Declarations

  • Suli S, Barriopedro D, García–Herrera R, Rusticucci M (2023) Regionalisation of heat waves in southern South America. Weather Clim Extremes 40:100569

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Thornthwaite CW (1948) An approach toward a rational classification of climate. Geogr Rev 38(1):55–94

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Torbert H, Hoeft R, Vanden Heuvel R, Mulvaney R, Hollinger S (1993) 1–6 excess water impact on corn yield and nitrogen recovery. J Prod Agric 6(3):337–344

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Torrence C, Compo GP (1998) A practical guide to wavelet analysis. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 79(1):61–78

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Trenberth KE, Dai A, Van Der Schrier G, Jones PD, Barichivich J, Briffa KR, Sheffield J (2014) Global warming and changes in drought. Nat Clim Change 4(1):17–22

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Van der Schrier G, Jones P, Briffa K (2011) The sensitivity of the PDSI to the Thornthwaite and Penman-Monteith parameterizations for potential evapotranspiration. J Geophys Research: Atmos 116:D3

    Google Scholar 

  • Vargas WM, Naumann G, Minetti JL (2011) Dry spells in the river Plata basin: an approximation of the diagnosis of droughts using daily data. Theoret Appl Climatol 104(1):159–173

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Vicente-Serrano SM, Beguerıa S, López-Moreno JI (2010) A multiscalar drought index sensitive to global warming: the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index. J Clim 23(7):1696–1718

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Vicente-Serrano SM, Chura O, López-Moreno JI, Azorin-Molina C, Sanchez-Lorenzo A, Aguilar E, Moran- Tejeda E, Trujillo F, Martınez R, Nieto J (2015) Spatio-temporal variability of droughts in Bolivia: 1955–2012. Int J Climatol 35(10):3024–3040

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang H, Vicente-Serrano SM, Tao F, Zhang X, Wang P, Zhang C, Chen Y, Zhu D, El Kenawy A (2016) Monitoring winter wheat drought threat in northern China using multiple climate-based drought indices and soil moisture during 2000–2013. Agric for Meteorol 228:1–12

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yuan X, Yonekura E (2011) Decadal variability in the southern hemisphere. J Geophys Research: Atmos 116:D19

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

We thank the two anonymous reviewers for their comments and suggestions that significantly contributed to the improvement of the manuscript.

Funding

This work was supported by University of Buenos Aires Grant (UBACYT2018 20020170100117BA), Agencia Nacional de Promoción Científica y Tecnológica Grant (PICT-2018-02496), Universidad Nacional de La Plata Grants (PPID/G006 and PPID/G008).

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Facultad de Ciencias Astronómicas y Geofísicas, Universidad Nacional de La Plata (FCAG/UNLP), B1900FWA, La Plata, Argentina

    María Eugenia Pérez de Mendiola & Josefina Blázquez

  2. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Universidad de Buenos Aires, CONICET-Universidad de Buenos Aires, Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera (CIMA), CNRS-IRD-CONICET-UBA, Instituto Franco-Argentino para el Estudio del Clima y sus Impactos (IRL 3351 IFAECI), Ciudad Universitaria Pabellón II Piso 2. (C1428EGA), Ciudad Autónoma de Buenos Aires, Argentina

    Silvina Alicia Solman

  3. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET), C1425FQB, Buenos Aires, Argentina

    María Eugenia Pérez de Mendiola & Josefina Blázquez

Authors
  1. María Eugenia Pérez de Mendiola
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Josefina Blázquez
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Silvina Alicia Solman
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Contributions

All authors contributed to the study conception and design. M. E. Pérez de Mendiola processed the data, carried out the calculations and wrote the main manuscript text. J. Blázquez and S. Solman designed the paper structure and revised the paper.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to María Eugenia Pérez de Mendiola.

Ethics declarations

Competing interests

Not applicable.

Additional information

Publisher’s Note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Electronic supplementary material

Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.

Supplementary Material 1

Rights and permissions

Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Pérez de Mendiola, M.E., Blázquez, J. & Solman, S.A. Characterization of wet and dry periods over southern South America. Clim Dyn (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-024-07217-y

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-024-07217-y

Keywords

Search

Navigation