Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Is the western North Pacific subtropical high a necessary condition for heat waves over the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze River?

  • Published:
Climate Dynamics Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Heat waves (HWs) can pose a serious threat to human health and natural ecosystems. Meanwhile, the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze River are known as one of the most vulnerable regions suffering such disasters. At the mention of their potential drivers, the western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH) has been widely accepted as the key atmospheric circulation regulating these high-temperature extremes. Although considerable studies have proved the importance of the WNPSH, not enough work pays attention to the HWs which are not caused by the anomalous WNPSH. This study utilizes the instantaneous co-recurrence ratio α based on the Dynamical System (DS) method to quantify the forcing strength from the WNPSH to HWs, and classify HWs into four types according to their value of α and spatial pattern of the 500 hPa geopotential height, as high-α1, 2 and low-α1, 2. Results show that coverage by the WNPSH is not a necessary condition for the formation of HWs, which may also result from the anomalous South Asian high (SAH) and tropical cyclones (TCs), and the value of α can indicate whether the HWs are coupled with the WNPSH or not. Furthermore, the mechanisms behind these anomalous atmospheric systems are also different. The eastward-extended SAH in high-α HWs is associated with the latent heat of local condensation induced by the abnormal rainfall, while accompanied by an eastward-propagating wave train in low-α1. The intensification of the WNPSH in high-α HWs are attributed to both meridional and zonal wave trains originating from the maritime Continent and Western Europe, respectively, and the anomalous TCs in low-α2 are mainly due to the warmer sea surface temperature over the basin-wide equatorial Pacific, which may heat the bottom atmosphere and provide the convective instability.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10

Similar content being viewed by others

Data availability

All data that support the findings of this study are included within the article (and any supplementary files).

References

  • Caliński T, Harabasz J (1974) A dendrite method for cluster analysis. Commun Stat Theory Methods 3:1–27

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cao D, Xu K, Huang Q, Tam C, Chen S, He Z, Wang W (2022) Exceptionally prolonged extreme heat waves over South China in early summer 2020: the role of warming in the tropical Indian Ocean. Atmos Res 278:106335

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chen R, Wen Z, Lu R (2018) Large-scale circulation anomalies and intraseasonal oscillations associated with long-lived extreme heat events in south China. J Clim 31:213–232

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chen S, Shi W, Wang Z, Xiao Z, Chen W, Wu R, Xing W, Duan W (2022) Impact of interannual variation of the spring Somali Jet intensity on the northwest-southeast movement of the South Asian High in the following summer. Clim Dyn 60:1583–1598

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Coburn J, Pryor SC (2021) Differential credibility of climate modes in CMIP6. J Clim 34:8145–8164

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ding T, Qian W, Yan Z (2010) Changes in hot days and heat waves in China during 1961–2007. Int J Climatol 30:1452–1462

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ding T, Gao H, Li W (2018) Extreme high-temperature event in southern China in 2016 and the possible role of cross-equatorial flows. Int J Climatol 38:3579–3594

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Faranda D, Messori G, Yiou P (2017) Dynamical proxies of North Atlantic predictability and extremes. Sci Rep 7:278

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Faranda D, Messori G, Yiou P (2020) Diagnosing concurrent drivers of weather extremes: application to warm and cold days in North America. Clim Dyn 54:2187–2201

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fischer EM, Schär CM (2010) Consistent geographical patterns of changes in high-impact European heatwaves. Nat Geosci 3:398–403

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fischer EM, Sippel S, Knutti R (2021) Increasing probability of record-shattering climate extremes. Nat Clim Change 11:689–695

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gasparrini A, Armstrong BG (2011) The impact of heat waves on mortality. Epidemiology 22:68–73

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Guo Y, Huang Y, Fu ZT (2022a) Regional compound humidity-heat extremes in the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze River: a dynamical systems perspective. Environ Res Lett 17:064032

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Guo Y, Huang Y, Fu ZT (2022b) What causes compound humidity-heat extremes to have different coupling strengths over the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze River? Clim Dyn. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06532-6

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hersbach H, Bell B, Berrisford P, Hirahara S, Horányi A, Muñoz-Sabater J, Nicolas J, Peubey C, Radu R, Schepers D et al (2020) The ERA5 global reanalysis. Q J R Meteorol Soc 146:1999–2049

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hirsch AL, Ridder NN, Perkins SE, Ukkola AM (2021) CMIP6 multi-model evaluation of present-day heatwave attributes. Geophys Res Lett 48:e2021GL095161

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Huang Y, Yuan N, Shi M, Lu Z, Fu Z (2022) On the air-sea couplings over tropical Pacific: an instantaneous coupling index using dynamical systems metrics. Geophys Res Lett 49:e2021GL097049

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Imada Y, Shiogama H, Takahashi C, Watanabe M, Mori M, Kamae Y, Maeda S (2018) Climate change increased the likelihood of the 2016 heat extremes in Asia. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 99:97–101

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Johnson H, Kovats RS, McGregor G, Stedman J, Gibbs M, Walton H, Cook L, Black E (2005) The impact of the 2003 heat wave on mortality and hospital admissions in England. Health Stat Q 25:6–11

    Google Scholar 

  • Kalnay E, Kanamitsu M, Kistler RE, Collins WD, Deaven DG, Gandin LS, Iredell M, Saha S, White GH, Woollen JS et al (1996) The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 77:437–471

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kim M, Yu D, Oh J, Byun Y, Boo K, Chung I, Park J, Park DR, Min S, Sung HM (2020) Performance evaluation of CMIP5 and CMIP6 models on heatwaves in Korea and associated teleconnection patterns. J Geophys Res Atmos 125:e2020JD032583

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lee HT (2014) Climate algorithm theoretical basis document (C-ATBD): outgoing longwave radiation (OLR)—daily. NOAA’s Climate Data Record (CDR) Program, CDRP-ATBD-0526 46

  • Lee W, Lee M (2016) Interannual variability of heat waves in South Korea and their connection with large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns. Int J Climatol 36:4815–4830

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lee S, Min S (2018) Heat stress changes over East Asia under 1.5° and 2.0°C global warming targets. J Clim 31:2819–2831

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Li X, Ren G, Wang S, You Q, Sun Y, Ma Y, Wang D, Zhang W (2021a) Change in the heatwave statistical characteristics over China during the climate warming slowdown. Atmos Res 247:105152

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Li Y, Ding Y, Liu Y (2021b) Mechanisms for regional compound hot extremes in the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze River. Int J Climatol 41:1292–1304

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Liao W, Li D, Malyshev S, Shevliakova E, Zhang H, Liu X (2021) Amplified increases of compound hot extremes over urban land in China. Geophys Res Lett 48:e2020GL091252

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Liu Q, Zhou T, Mao H, Fu C (2019) Decadal variations in the relationship between the Western Pacific Subtropical High and summer heat waves in East China. J Clim 32:1627–1640

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Luca PD, Messori G, Faranda D, Ward PJ, Coumou D (2020a) Compound warm-dry and cold-wet events over the Mediterranean. Earth Syst Dyn Discuss 11:793–805

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Luca PD, Messori G, Pons FM, Faranda D (2020b) Dynamical systems theory sheds new light on compound climate extremes in Europe and Eastern North America. Q J R Meteorol Soc 146:1636–1650

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lucarini V, Faranda D, Wouters J (2012) Universal behaviour of extreme value statistics for selected observables of dynamical systems. J Stat Phys 147:63–73

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Luo M, Lau N (2017) Heat waves in southern China: synoptic behavior, long-term change, and urbanization effects. J Clim 30:703–720

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Luo M, Lau N (2018) Increasing heat stress in urban areas of Eastern China: acceleration by urbanization. Geophys Res Lett 45:13060–13069

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Matthews T, Wilby RL, Murphy C (2017) Communicating the deadly consequences of global warming for human heat stress. Proc Natl Acad Sci 114:3861–3866

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Messori G, Faranda D (2020) Technical note: characterizing and comparing different palaeoclimates with dynamical systems theory. Clim past 17:545–563

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Peng JB (2014) An investigation of the formation of the heat wave in Southern China in summer 2013 and the relevant abnormal Subtropical High activities. Atmos Ocean Sci Lett 7:286–290

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Perkins SE (2015) A review on the scientific understanding of heatwaves: their measurement, driving mechanisms, and changes at the global scale. Atmos Res 164:242–267

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Perkins SE, Alexander LV (2013) On the measurement of heat waves. J Clim 26:4500–4517

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Perkins SE, Alexander LV, Nairn J (2012) Increasing frequency, intensity and duration of observed global heatwaves and warm spells. Geophys Res Lett 39:L20714

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Qiao S, Chen D, Wang B, Cheung HN, Liu F, Cheng J, Tang S, Zhang Z, Feng G, Dong W (2021) The longest 2020 Meiyu season over the past 60 years: subseasonal perspective and its predictions. Geophys Res Lett 48:e2021GL093596

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ren X, Yang D, Yang X (2015) Characteristics and mechanisms of the subseasonal eastward extension of the South Asian High. J Clim 28:6799–6822

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Reynolds RW, Rayner NA, Smith TM, Stokes DC, Wang W (2002) An improved in situ and satellite SST analysis for climate. J Clim 15:1609–1625

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Robine J, Cheung SL, Le Roy S, Van Oyen H, Griffiths CE, Michel J, Herrmann FR (2008) Death toll exceeded 70,000 in Europe during the summer of 2003. CR Biol 331(2):171–178

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rousi E, Kornhuber K, Beobide-Arsuaga G, Luo F, Coumou D (2022) Accelerated western European heatwave trends linked to more-persistent double jets over Eurasia. Nat Commun 13:3851

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shang W, Ren X, Duan K, Zhao C (2019) Influence of the South Asian high-intensity variability on the persistent heavy rainfall and heat waves in Asian monsoon regions. Int J Climatol 40:2153–2172

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stéfanon M, D’Andrea F, Drobinski P (2012) Heatwave classification over Europe and the Mediterranean region. Environ Res Lett 7:014023

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Takaya K, Nakamura H (1997) A formulation of a wave-activity flux for stationary Rossby waves on a zonally varying basic flow. Geophys Res Lett 24:2985–2988

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tang S, Qiao S, Wang B, Liu F, Feng T, Yang J, He M, Chen D, Cheng J, Feng G, Dong W (2023) Linkages of unprecedented 2022 Yangtze River Valley heatwaves to Pakistan flood and triple-dip La Niña. Npj Clim Atmos Sci 6:44

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tao SY, Zhu RK (1964) The 100-mb flow patterns in southern Asia in summer and its relation to the advance and retreat of the West Pacific subtropical anticyclone over the Far East. Acta Meteorol Sin 34:387–396

    Google Scholar 

  • Wang W, Zhou W, Li X, Wang X, Wang D (2016) Synoptic-scale characteristics and atmospheric controls of summer heat waves in China. Clim Dyn 46:2923–2941

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang B, Li J, He Q (2017) Variable and robust East Asian monsoon rainfall response to El Niño over the past 60 years (1957–2016). Adv Atmos Sci 34:1235–1248

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang J, Feng J, Yan Z, Chen Y (2020) Future risks of unprecedented compound heat waves over three vast urban agglomerations in China. Earth’s Future 8:e2020EF001716

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wei W, Zhang R, Wen M, Rong X, Li T (2014) Impact of Indian summer monsoon on the South Asian High and its influence on summer rainfall over China. Clim Dyn 43:1257–1269

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wei W, Zhang R, Wen M, Kim B, Nam J (2015) Interannual variation of the South Asian High and its relation with Indian and East Asian summer monsoon rainfall. J Clim 28:2623–2634

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Xie S, Hu K, Hafner J, Tokinaga H, Du Y, Huang G, Sampe T (2009) Indian ocean capacitor effect on Indo-Western Pacific climate during the summer following El Niño. J Clim 22:730–747

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Xie S, Du Y, Huang G, Zheng X, Tokinaga H, Hu K, Liu Q (2010) Decadal shift in El Niño influences on Indo-Western Pacific and East Asian climate in the 1970s. J Clim 23:3352–3368

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Xie W, Zhou B, Han Z, Xu Y (2022) Substantial increase in daytime-nighttime compound heat waves and associated population exposure in China projected by the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble. Environ Res Lett 17:045007

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yang J, Liu Q, Xie S, Liu Z, Wu L (2006) Impact of the Indian ocean SST basin mode on the Asian summer monsoon. Geophys Res Lett 34:L02708

    Google Scholar 

  • Yang K, Cai W, Huang G, Hu K, Ng B, Wang G (2022) Increased variability of the western Pacific subtropical high under greenhouse warming. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 119(23):e2120335119

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang P, Liu Y, He B (2016) Impact of East Asian summer monsoon heating on the interannual variation of the South Asian High. J Clim 29:159–173

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang Q, Zheng Y, Singh V, Luo M, Xie Z (2017) Summer extreme precipitation in eastern China: mechanisms and impacts. J Geophys Res Atmos 122:2766–2778

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhu Y, Wang H, Zhou W, Ma J (2011) Recent changes in the summer precipitation pattern in East China and the background circulation. Clim Dyn 36:1463–1473

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zi Y, Xiao Z, Yan H, Xu J (2021) Sub-seasonal east-west oscillation of the western pacific subtropical high in summer and its air-sea coupling process. Clim Dyn 58:115–135

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Funding

The authors acknowledge the supports from National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos. 42175065 and 41975059).

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Laboratory for Climate and Ocean-Atmosphere Studies, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, School of Physics, Peking University, Beijing, China

    Yixuan Guo & Zuntao Fu

Authors
  1. Yixuan Guo
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Zuntao Fu
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Contributions

YG and ZF conceived the study. YG conducted the analysis. All authors interpreted and discussed the results and wrote the manuscript.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Zuntao Fu.

Ethics declarations

Conflict of interest

The authors declare no competing interests.

Additional information

Publisher's Note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Supplementary Information

Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.

Supplementary file1 (DOCX 2137 KB)

Rights and permissions

Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Guo, Y., Fu, Z. Is the western North Pacific subtropical high a necessary condition for heat waves over the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze River?. Clim Dyn 62, 665–678 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06936-y

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06936-y

Keywords

Search

Navigation