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Controls of the recent precipitation anomalies in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau: from the perspective of Indian summer monsoon activities and moisture sources

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Abstract

An increasing, but spatially inhomogeneous, trend in Tibetan Plateau (TP) precipitation, and especially the precipitation anomalies in southeastern TP (TPSE), has become the subject of major scientific concern. The Indian summer monsoon (ISM) is one of the TPSE’s most important moisture sources, and its characteristics are therefore key for precipitation changes. Here we present the ISM activities (ISM onset/retreat date, ISM duration, and ISM intensity) and the percentages of varied moisture sources in TPSE, using OLR datasets and Hysplit modeling with gbl reanalysis. The recent precipitation anomalies in TPSE are analyzed with CMFD reanalysis. Major findings: (1) The ISM in TPSE generally begins later, retreats earlier, is of shorter duration, and weaker in intensity. (2) Uniformly decreasing (increasing) precipitation trends are found in TPSE for periods 1979 − 2018 and 1999 − 2018 (1979 − 1998). (3) Moistures along with the ISM are the primary controls of TPSE precipitation (~ 85% in summer); these are also verified by the generally same linear trends observed in ISM moistures and TPSE precipitation in summer. (4) The precipitation anomalies in TPSE are closely related with the ISM activities: the ISM onset date (retreat date) and its variabilities affect precipitation during May − June (September − October); precipitation during July − August correlates positively with the ISM duration and its intensity. The ISM activities impact the percentages of ISM moistures and finally affect the precipitation amount and their trends. These results will contribute to precipitation-related studies as hydrology, ecology, and paleoclimate reconstructions in TP.

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Data availability

The data that support the findings of this study are available from CMFD (http://data.tpdc.ac.cn), NOAA PSL (OLR, https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.interp_OLR.html), and NCEP/NCAR Global Reanalysis Data Archive (gbl reanalysis, ftp://arlftp.arlhq.noaa.gov/pub/archives/reanalysis/).

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Acknowledgements

This research is funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 42071090, 41988101, 42271143, 42201141, 41701080). We thank the National Tibetan Plateau Data Center (China Meteorological Forcing Dataset, CMFD), NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory (NOAA PSL), and NCEP/NCAR Global Reanalysis Data Archive for access to the datasets used in this analysis. The data that support the findings of this study are available from CMFD (http://data.tpdc.ac.cn), NOAA PSL (OLR, https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.interp_OLR.html), NCEP/NCAR Global Reanalysis Data Archive (gbl reanalysis, ftp://arlftp.arlhq.noaa.gov/pub/archives/reanalysis/). We would also like to express our sincere thanks to Edward A Derbyshire, who helps us improve the English expressions.

Funding

This research is funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 42071090, 41988101, 42271143, 42201141, 41701080).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System, Environment and Resources (TPESER), Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lincui Road, Chaoyang District, Beijing, 100101, China

    Xiaoyu Guo, Lei Wang & Jing Zhou

  2. Motuo Observation & Research Center for Earth Landscape and Earth Systems, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China

    Xiaoyu Guo

  3. Institute of International Rivers and Eco-Security, Yunnan University, Kunming, 650500, China

    Lide Tian

  4. The University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China

    Lei Wang

  5. School of Geographical Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China

    Yuanwei Wang

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Contributions

All authors contributed to the study conception and design. XG and LT performed data collection and analysis. The first draft of the manuscript was written by XG. LW, YW, and JZ did the material preparation. All the authors commented on the previous versions and approved the final version manuscript.

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Correspondence to Xiaoyu Guo.

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Guo, X., Tian, L., Wang, L. et al. Controls of the recent precipitation anomalies in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau: from the perspective of Indian summer monsoon activities and moisture sources. Clim Dyn 62, 399–412 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06919-z

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