Abstract
The development of dynamical forecast systems has promoted seasonal forecast skills of winter climate; however, predicting subseasonal variations of East Asian (EA) winter temperature remains a challenging issue. To address this, this study presents a Subseasonal Predictable Mode Analysis (S-PMA) method that integrates the Season-reliant Empirical Orthogonal Function (S-EOF) analysis with the PMA approach and conducts retrospective predictions based on the physical interpretation of leading S-EOF modes. Three distinct S-EOF modes of EA winter temperature during the period of 1979–2021 have been identified: (1) the Consistent Mode (C-Mode) with a continuous in-phase temperature anomaly in winter (November–February); (2) the Progressive Reversal Mode (PR-Mode) with a slow-varying reversal of temperature anomaly between November–December and January–February; (3) the Rapid Reversal Mode (RR-Mode) with a fast-varying reversal of temperature anomaly between December and January–February. The C-Mode is linked to a simultaneous Arctic Oscillation anomaly and positive land–atmosphere feedback, while the PR-Mode and RR-Mode result from interactions between the preceding atmospheric variability and surface boundary conditions. The first three S-EOF modes could collectively explain over 40% of the total temperature variances over the mid-high latitudes of EA. A set of physically-based empirical prediction (PEP) models is established to hindcast each principal component (PC) of the S-EOF modes, with correlation coefficients of 0.62, 0.63, and 0.46, respectively. Compared to dynamical models, the PEP models show advantages in enhancing skills over extratropical land regions of EA and in late winter. A hybrid PEP-dynamical model is also introduced to complement their strengths. These results can facilitate seasonal forecast skills of winter temperature in not only EA, but also the entire Asian continent. Furthermore, the S-PMA method can be applied to a wide range of climate research in seasonal forecast and predictability.
Similar content being viewed by others
Data availability
The ECMWF ERA5/ERA5-land reanalysis data, Met Office Hadley Centre SIC data are available from the following websites: https://climate.copernicus.eu/climate-data-store, https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadisst/, respectively. The hindcast results of dynamical seasonal forecast models can be downloaded in the following website: https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/cdsapp#!/dataset/seasonal-monthly-single-levels?tab=form. Other data used in this study are available upon request from the authors.
References
Blockeel H, Struyf J (2002) Efficient algorithms for decision tree cross-validation. J Mach Learn Res 3:621–650
Chen Z, Wu RG, Chen W (2014a) Distinguishing interannual variations of the Northern and Southern Modes of the East Asian Winter Monsoon. J Clim 27:835–851
Chen Z, Wu RG, Chen W (2014b) Impacts of autumn arctic sea ice concentration changes on the East Asian Winter Monsoon variability. J Clim 27:5433–5450
Ding SY, Wu BY, Chen W (2021) Dominant characteristics of early autumn Arctic sea ice variability and its impact on winter Eurasian climate. J Clim 34:1825–1846
Geng X, Zhang WJ, Stuecker MF, Jin FF (2017) Strong sub-seasonal wintertime cooling over East Asia and Northern Europe associated with super El Niño events. Sci Rep 7:3770
Gong DY, Wang SW, Zhu JH (2001) East Asian winter monsoon and Arctic Oscillation. Geophys Res Lett 28:2073–2076
He JH, Lin H, Wu ZW (2011) Another look at influences of the Madden–Julian Oscillation on the wintertime East Asian weather. J Geophys Res 116:D03109
Hersbach H, Bell B, Berrisford P et al (2020) The ERA5 global reanalysis. Q J R Meteorol Soc 146:1999–2049
Honda M, Inoue J, Yamane S (2009) Influence of low Arctic sea-ice minima on anomalously cold Eurasian winters. Geophys Res Lett 36:L08707
Hori ME, Inoue J, Kikuchi T et al (2011) Recurrence of intraseasonal cold air outbreak during the 2009/2010 winter in Japan and its ties to the atmospheric condition over the Barents-Kara Sea. SOLA 7:25–28
Jhun J-G, Lee E-J (2004) A new East Asian winter monsoon index and associated characteristics of the winter monsoon. J Clim 17:711–726
Jiang XW, Yang S, Li YQ et al (2013) Dynamical prediction of the East Asian winter monsoon by the NCEP Climate Forecast System. J Geophys Res Atmos 118:1312–1328
Kim B-M, Son S-W, Min S-K et al (2014) Weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex by Arctic sea-ice loss. Nat Commun 5:4646
Lee J-Y, Lee S-S, Wang B et al (2013) Seasonal prediction and predictability of the Asian winter temperature variability. Clim Dyn 41:573–587
Li JP, Wang JXL (2003) A modified zonal index and its physical sense. Geophys Res Lett 30:1632
Li JP, Zheng F, Sun C et al (2019) Pathways of influence of the Northern Hemisphere mid-high latitudes on East Asian climate: a review. Adv Atmos Sci 36:902–921
Li JP, Xie TJ, Tang XX et al (2022) Influence of the NAO on wintertime surface air temperature over East Asia: multidecadal variability and decadal prediction. Adv Atmos Sci 39:625–642
Liu G, Chen J-M, Ji L-R, Sun S-Q (2012a) Relationship of summer soil moisture with early winter monsoon and air temperature over eastern China. Int J Climatol 32:1513–1519
Liu G, Ji LR, Sun SQ, Xin YF (2012b) Low- and mid-high latitude components of the East Asian winter monsoon and their reflecting variations in winter climate over Eastern China. Atmos Ocean Sci Lett 5:195–200
Liu JP, Curry JA, Wang HJ et al (2012c) Impact of declining Arctic sea ice on winter snowfall. Proc Natl Acad Sci 109:4074–4079
Luo DH, Xiao YQ, Diao YN et al (2016) Impact of Ural blocking on winter warm Arctic–cold Eurasian anomalies. Part II: the link to the North Atlantic Oscillation. J Clim 29:3949–3971
Lyu MX, Wu ZW, Shi XH, Wen M (2019) Distinct impacts of the MJO and the NAO on cold wave amplitude in China. Q J R Meteorol Soc 145:1617–1635
Ma YL, Zhao YD, Liu JT et al (2020) Effects of temperature variation and humidity on the death of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China. Sci Total Environ 724:138226
Michaelsen J (1987) Cross-validation in statistical climate forecast models. J Clim Appl Meteorol 26:1589–1600
North GR, Bell TL, Cahalan RF, Moeng F (1982) Sampling errors in the estimation of empirical orthogonal functions. Mon Weather Rev 110:699–706
Petoukhov V, Semenov VA (2010) A link between reduced Barents-Kara sea ice and cold winter extremes over northern continents. J Geophys Res 115:D21111
Qiao SB, Feng GL (2016) Impact of the December North Atlantic Oscillation on the following February East Asian trough. J Geophys Res Atmos 121:10074–10088
Qiao SB, Zou M, Cheung HN et al (2021) Contrasting interannual prediction between January and February temperature in Southern China in the NCEP Climate Forecast System. J Clim 34:2791–2812
Rayner NA, Parker DE, Horton EB et al (2003) Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. J Geophys Res 108:4407
Tian BQ, Fan K (2020) Different prediction skill for the East Asian winter monsoon in the early and late winter season. Clim Dyn 54:1523–1538
Wang B, An S-I (2005) A method for detecting season-dependent modes of climate variability: S-EOF analysis. Geophys Res Lett 32:L15710
Wang B, Lee J-Y, Kang I-S et al (2007) Coupled predictability of seasonal tropical precipitation. CLIVAR Exch 12:17–18
Wang B, Wu ZW, Chang C-P et al (2010a) Another look at interannual-to-interdecadal variations of the East Asian winter monsoon: The northern and southern temperature modes. J Clim 23:1495–1512
Wang GY, Huang JP, Guo WD et al (2010b) Observation analysis of land-atmosphere interactions over the Loess Plateau of northwest China. J Geophys Res 115:D00K17
Wang B, Lee J-Y, Xiang BQ (2015) Asian summer monsoon rainfall predictability: a predictable mode analysis. Clim Dyn 44:61–74
Wu BY, Wang J (2002) Winter arctic oscillation, Siberian High and East Asian winter monsoon. Geophys Res Lett 29:1897
Wu ZW, Li JP, Wang B, Liu XH (2009a) Can the Southern Hemisphere annular mode affect China winter monsoon? J Geophys Res 114:D11107
Wu ZW, Wang B, Li JP, Jin FF (2009b) An empirical seasonal prediction model of the East Asian summer monsoon using ENSO and NAO. J Geophys Res 114:D18120
Wu BY, Su JZ, Zhang RH (2011a) Effects of autumn-winter Arctic sea ice on winter Siberian High. Chin Sci Bull 56:3220–3228
Wu ZW, Li JP, Jiang ZH, He JH (2011b) Predictable climate dynamics of abnormal East Asian winter monsoon: once-in-a-century snowstorms in 2007/2008 winter. Clim Dyn 37:1661–1669
Xu XP, Li F, He SP, Wang HJ (2018) Subseasonal reversal of East Asian surface temperature variability in winter 2014/15. Adv Atmos Sci 35:737–752
Yang S (2002) Variations of the East Asian jet stream and Asian–Pacific–American winter climate anomalies. J Clim 15:306–325
Yu LL, Wu ZW, Zhang RH, Yang X (2018) Partial least regression approach to forecast the East Asian winter monsoon using Eurasian snow cover and sea surface temperature. Clim Dyn 51:4573–4584
Zhang P, Wu ZW, Li JP, Xiao ZN (2020) Seasonal prediction of the northern and southern temperature modes of the East Asian winter monsoon: the importance of the Arctic sea ice. Clim Dyn 54:3583–3597
Zhang XD, Fu YF, Han Z et al (2022) Extreme cold events from East Asia to North America in winter 2020/21: comparisons, causes, and future implications. Adv Atmos Sci 39:553–565
Zhong WG, Wu ZW (2022a) Subseasonal variations of Eurasian wintertime surface air temperature: two distinct leading modes. Clim Dyn 59:85–108
Zhong WG, Wu ZW (2022b) Subseasonal strength reversal of the East Asian winter monsoon. Clim Dyn. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06610-9
Zhong WG, Wu ZW (2023) Interannual variability of the wintertime Asian–Bering–North American teleconnection linked to Eurasian snow cover and Maritime Continent sea surface temperature. J Clim 36:2815–2831
Zhong WG, Yin ZC, Wang HJ (2019) The relationship between anticyclonic anomalies in northeastern Asia and severe haze in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region. Atmos Chem Phys 19:5941–5957
Zuo JQ, Ren HL, Wu BY, Li WJ (2016) Predictability of winter temperature in China from previous autumn Arctic sea ice. Clim Dyn 47:2331–2343
Acknowledgements
We deeply appreciate Prof. Bin Wang for fruitful and positive discussions with us. This research was jointly supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) Major Research Plan on West-Pacific Earth System Multi-spheric Interactions (project number: 92158203), the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research (STEP) program (Grant No. 2019QZKK0102) and NSFC (Grant No. 91937302).
Funding
National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) Major Research Plan on West-Pacific Earth System Multi-spheric Interactions (project number: 92158203), the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research (STEP) program (Grant No. 2019QZKK0102) and NSFC (Grant No. 91937302).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Contributions
WGZ designed the research under the supervision of ZWW WGZ prepared figures and wrote the main manuscript. ZWW modified and reviewed the manuscript.
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Conflict of interest
The authors declare that they have no competing interests.
Additional information
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Supplementary Information
Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.
Rights and permissions
Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.
About this article
Cite this article
Zhong, W., Wu, Z. Forecasting East Asian winter temperature via subseasonal predictable mode analysis. Clim Dyn 62, 277–297 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06916-2
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06916-2