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Upper tropospheric moistening during the Asian summer monsoon in a changing climate

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Abstract

This study investigates the projected changes in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) water vapor over the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) region based on satellite records, numerical simulations using variable-resolution global climate model focused over south Asia (HIST-natural and anthropogenic forcing in the historical period, and FUT-following RCP4.5 in future), and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) datasets. The simulations generally reproduced the seasonal cycle in the UTLS water vapor and regional water vapor maximum. With progressive warming in future, excessive upper tropospheric moistening is noted over the ASM region in far-future (2070–2095) climate against the HIST climate (1980–2005) with water vapor mixing ratio increasing to ~ 7.5 ppmv relative to ~ 5 ppmv noted in the HIST. It is further noted that projected changes in water vapor are linked to anomalous warming (~ 1–4 K) in the upper tropospheric layers juxtaposed with zonally elongated ASM anticyclone and enhanced water vapor flux divergence by amplifications in rotational winds. Further, the simulations indicate robust increase in ASM upper tropospheric water vapor as compared to those at mid- and lower- troposphere in accordance with the Clausius–Clapeyron temperature dependence of moisture response to warming and amplified troposphere warming with altitude. A simple comparison between the ASM and the entire globe indicates that upper tropospheric water vapor-temperature relationship has a similar response, however, the projected variability in temperature and moisture is significantly larger (about twice) over the ASM region highlighting strong regional influence. Nonetheless, the projections indicate that ASM is a potential regional source in modulating UTLS water vapor budget in a warming climate.

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Data availability

The MLS water vapor data were obtained from https://acdisc.gesdisc.eosdis.nasa.gov/. The GPCP version 2.3 data is publicly available at https://doi.org/10.7289/V56971M6. CMIP datasets were obtained from https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/search/cmip5/. The model outputs used in this study can be made available upon reasonable request.

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Acknowledgements

IITM Pune is funded by the Ministry of Earth Science (MoES), the Government of India. We duly acknowledge the support of High Performance Computing facility at IITM which was utilized for model runs and analysis. The authors thank the agencies and centers for making meteorological data publicly available. The author(s) wish to acknowledge use of the PyFerret (http://ferret.pmel.noaa.gov/Ferret/) and NCAR Commanding Language (NCL; https://www.ncl.ucar.edu) for analysis and graphics generated in this paper. Authors also thank the anonymous reviewers for their critical comments and valuable suggestions which led to refinement in the original draft.

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The authors declare that no funds, grants, or other support were received during the preparation of this manuscript.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Centre for Climate Change Research, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (Ministry of Earth Sciences), Pune, 411 008, India

    Bhupendra Bahadur Singh, R. Krishnan, T. P. Sabin, Ramesh K. Vellore & Naresh Ganeshi

  2. Department of Geophysics, Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi, India

    Bhupendra Bahadur Singh & Manoj K. Srivastava

Authors
  1. Bhupendra Bahadur Singh
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  2. R. Krishnan
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  3. T. P. Sabin
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  5. Naresh Ganeshi
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  6. Manoj K. Srivastava
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Contributions

BBS conceptualized the problem, performed the analysis and wrote the manuscript. TPS performed the model simulations. RK and RV provided feedback and edited the manuscript. NG, MKS and all co-authors participated in the discussions and contributed towards the interpretation of the results.

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Correspondence to Bhupendra Bahadur Singh.

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Singh, B.B., Krishnan, R., Sabin, T.P. et al. Upper tropospheric moistening during the Asian summer monsoon in a changing climate. Clim Dyn 62, 55–68 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06896-3

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