Abstract
Soil moisture (SM) is a key component of the Earth’s climate system. Accurate prediction of SM is essential for understanding and predicting short-term climate variability. While Sea Surface Temperature (SST) has been shown to improve SM prediction, the pathways of its impact and the underlying physical mechanisms are not yet fully understood. This study aims to assess the leading influence of the preceding December–February [DJF (− 1)] North Tropical Atlantic (NTA) SST on the following September–November (SON) Northeastern Eurasia (NEE) SM. Our analysis reveals a significant cross-seasonal influence of NTA SST on NEE SM, with a 9-month lead time (r = 0.57). To investigate the physical mechanisms underlying this relationship, we employ both observational data and model simulation. The results suggest that the warming of DJF (− 1) NTA SST persists into June–August (JJA), triggering Rossby waves propagating eastward from the North Atlantic to the Eurasia, which forms an anomalous cyclone over NEE. The cyclone leads to lowered barometric pressure, enhanced upward movement of air currents, and anomalous southerly winds bringing abundant water moisture supply. The precipitation over NEE increases correspondingly, leading to positive SM anomalies in JJA. The positive feedback between SM and precipitation contributes to the persistence of SM anomalies to subsequent SON season. Our findings provide new insights into the physical mechanisms by which NTA SST impact SON SM and improve the predictability of SON SM in NEE.
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Data availability
The sources of the data sets are introduced in detail in the Data and Methodology section. The GLEAM data is downloaded from https://www.gleam.eu. The SST data from the Extended Reconstruction SST version 5 datasets (https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.noaa.ersst.v5.html). The atmospheric data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ERA5 reanalysis (https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/cdsapp#!/search?type=dataset).
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This work is jointly supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2022YFF0801703).
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Lou, W., Sun, C. & Liu, Y. Cross-seasonal influence of the North Tropical Atlantic SST on soil moisture in Northeastern Eurasia. Clim Dyn 61, 5845–5860 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06887-4
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06887-4