Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Different role of spring season Atlantic SST anomalies in indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) variability before and after early 2000

  • Published:
Climate Dynamics Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

The present study shows that the weak (out-of-phase) correlation between the boreal spring Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM) index and Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) during the 1990–2001 periods turned into a significant positive relationship after that. During the first period, boreal spring (MAM) season Atlantic SST variability is dominated by stronger cooling in the southeastern region. After 2002, the spring season SST pattern has north Atlantic warming extending to the equatorial region and continuing to summer (JJAS). The primary mode of the Atlantic SST co-occurred with a pre-existing El Nino during period 1 and the formation of La Nina by summer during period 2. During period 1, ENSO-induced anomalies dominated with weak divergence over India and the Atlantic region, while during period 2, the warm SST anomalies of north Atlantic-induced off-equatorial convection and associated circulation extended to the Indian Ocean and Indian land region resulting in increased monsoon rainfall during JJAS. The study further showed that during period 2, the increased correlation of ENSO and ISMR is also contributed by the Atlantic SST anomalies with additional off-equatorial wind anomalies and circulation from the north Atlantic extending to the Indian Ocean and monsoon region. Thus, MAM season Atlantic SST anomalies play a significant role in ENSO phase reversal and ISMR during the recent period. Many of the seasonal prediction models that participated in the NMME project capture the phase reversal of AMM-ISMR correlation when initialized during February. But models have more robust equatorial SST patterns during the summer season, and the north Atlantic SST anomalies are vital in the absence of ENSO. The study indicates that the spring season AMM index can provide a predictive signal for ISMR in seasonal prediction models. Still, they need to improve the simulation of the Atlantic basic state and its teleconnection with the tropical east Pacific.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10
Fig. 11
Fig. 12
Fig. 13

Similar content being viewed by others

Data Availability

All the atmospheric data sets ( zonal and meridional wind ) are available from ERA5 (https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/#!/search?text=ERA5&type=dataset), HadISST from https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadisst/data/download.html and IMD rainfall from https://www.imdpune.gov.in/Clim_Pred_LRF_New/Grided_Data_Download.html. and the NMME model outputs are from the IRI website http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/SOURCES/.Models/.NMME/.

Code Availability

The software used was GrADS freely available from http://cola.gmu.edu/grads/ and scripts are available.

References

  • Ashok K, Guan Z, Saji NH, Yamagata T (2004) Individual and combined influences of ENSO and the Indian Ocean Dipole on the indian summer Monsoon. J Clim 17:3141–3155

  • Ashok K, Guan Z, Yamagata T (2001) Impact of Indian Ocean Dipole on the relationship between the indian monsoon rainfall and ENSO. Geophys Res Lett 28:4499–4502

  • Ashok K, Saji NH (2007) On the impacts of ENSO and Indian Ocean dipole events on sub-regional indian summer monsoon rainfall. Nat Hazards 42:273–285. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-006-9091-0

  • Attada R, Ehsan MA, Pillai PA (2022) Evaluation of potential predictability of indian summer Monsoon Rainfall in ECMWF’s Fifth-Generation Seasonal Forecast System (SEAS5). Pure Appl Geophys 179:4639–4655. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-022-03184-9

  • Bamzai AS, Shukla J (1999) Relation between eurasian snow cover, snow depth, and the indian summer monsoon: an observational study J. Clim 12:3117–3132

  • Borah PJ, Venugopal V, Sukhatme J, Muddebihal P, Goswami BN (2020) Indian monsoon derailed by a North Atlantic wavetrain. Science. 370(6522):1335–1338. doi: https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aay6043. PMID: 33303616

  • Cai W, Wu L, Lengaigne M et al (2019) Pantropical climate interactions. Science. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aav4236

  • Chakravorty S, Gnanaseelan C, Pillai PA (2016) Combined influence of remote and local SST forcing on indian summer Monsoon Rainfall variability. Clim Dyn 47:2817–2831. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-2999-5

  • Chang P, Fang Y, Saravanan R, Ji L, Seidel H (2006) The cause of the fragile relationship between the Pacific El Nin˜o and the Atlantic El Nin˜o. Nature 443:324–328

  • Chiang JCH, Vimont DJ (2004) Analogous meridional modes of atmosphere-ocean variability in the tropical Pacific and tropical Atlantic. J Clim 17(21):4143–4158

  • Devika M, Pillai PA (2020) Recent change in trend, prominent modes and the interannual variability of indian summer monsoon rainfall centered on early 21st century. Theoret Appl Climatol 139:815–824

  • Doi T, Tozuka T, Yamagata T (2009) Interannual variability of the Guinea Dome and its possible link with the Atlantic Meridional Mode. Clim Dyn 33:985–998

  • Goswami BN, Madhusoodanan MS, Neema CP, Sengupta D (2006) A physical mechanism for North Atlantic SST influence on the indian summer monsoon. Geophys Res Lett 33:L02706. https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL024803

  • Ham YG, Kug JS, Park JY, Jin FF (2013) Sea surface temperature in the north tropical Atlantic as a trigger for El Niño/Southern Oscillation events. Nat Geosci. https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1686

  • Hersbach H, co-authors (2020) The ERA5 global reanalysis.Quart. J Royal Met Soci 146:1999–2049

  • Huffman GJ, Adler RF, Bolvin DT, Gu G (2009) Improving the global precipitation record: GPCP Version 2.1. Geophys Res Lett 36:L17808. https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL040000

  • Hu ZZ, Huang B (2007) Physical processes associated with the tropical Atlantic SST gradient during the anomalous evolution in the southeastern ocean. J Clim 20:3366–3378

  • Kirtman BP, co-authors (2014) The north american multi-model ensemble. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 95:585–601

  • Kripalani RH, Kulkarni A (1996) Assessing the impacts of El Nino and non-El Nino related droughts over India. Drought Netw News 8(3):11–13

  • Kripalani RH, Kulkarni A (1999) Climatology and variability of historical soviet snow depth: some new perspectives in snow-indian monsoon teleconnections. Clim Dyn 15:475–448

  • Krishnamurthy V, Goswami BN (2000) Indian monsoon–ENSO relationship on interdecadal time scales. J Clim 13:579–595

  • Krishnan R, Sugi M (2003) Pacific decadal oscillation and variability of the indian summer monsoon rainfall. Clim Dyn 21:233–242. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-003-0330-8

  • Kucharski F, Bracco A, Yoo J, Molteni F (2007) Low-frequency variability of the indian monsoon–ENSO relationship and the tropical Atlantic: the weakening of the 1980s and 1990s. J Clim 20(16):4255–4266

  • Kucharski F, Bracco A, Yoo J, Tompkins A, Feudale L, Ruti P, Dell’Aquila A (2009) A Gill-Matsuno-type mechanism explains the tropical Atlantic influence on african and indian monsoon rainfall. Q J R Meteorol Soc 135(640):569–579

  • Kumar KK, Rajagopalan B, Cane MA (1999) On the weakening relationship between the indian monsoon and ENSO. Science 284:2156–2159

  • Li S, Perlwitz J, Quan X, Hoerling MP (2008) Modeling the influence of North Atlantic multidecadal warmth on the indian summer rainfall. Geophys Res Lett 35:L05804. https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL032901

  • Pai DS, Sridhar L, Rajeevan M, Sreejith OP, Satibhai N, Mukhopadhyay B (2014) Development of a new high spatial resolution (0.25 × 0.25) long period (1901–2010) daily gridded rainfall data set over India and its comparison with existing data sets over the region. Mausam 65(1):1–18

  • Pillai PA, Annamalai H (2012) Moist Dynamics of severe Monsoons over South Asia: role of the Tropical SST. J Atmos Sci 69:97–115

  • Pillai PA, Mohankumar K (2010) Individual and combined influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole on the Tropospheric Biennial Oscillation. Q J R Meteorol Soc 136:297–304. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.579

  • Pillai PA, Ramu DA, Nair RC (2021) Recent changes in the major modes of asian summer monsoon rainfall: influence of ENSO-IOD relationship. Theoret Appl Climatol 143:869–881

  • Pillai PA, Rao SA, Gangadharan KV, Pradhan M, Srivastava A, Jain DK (2022) Impact of reduced ENSO variability and amplitude on ISMR prediction in the long-lead forecasts of monsoon mission CFS. Int J Climatol 42(16):9166–9181. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7809

  • Pillai PA, Rao SA, Ramu DA, Pradhan M, George G (2018) Seasonal prediction skill of indian summer monsoon rainfall in NMME models and monsoon mission CFSv2. Int J Climatol 38:847–861

  • Rajeevan M, Pai DS, Thapliyal V (2002) Predictive relationship between indian ocean sea surface temeprature and indian summer monsoon rainfall. Mausam 53:337–348

  • Rajeevan M, Sridhar L (2008) Inter-annual relationship between Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies and indian summer monsoon. Geophys Res Lett 35:L21704

  • Rao SA, Pillai PA, Pradhan M, Srivastava A (2019) Seasonal prediction of indian summer monsoon in India: the past, the present, and the future. Mausam 70:265–276

  • Rasmusson EM, Carpenter TH (1983) The relationship between eastern equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature and rainfall over India and Sri Lanka. Mon Wea Rev 111:517–528

  • Rayner N, Parker DE, Horton E, Folland C, Alexander L, Rowell D, Kent EC, Kaplan A (2003) Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. J Phys Res 108(D14):4407. https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JD002670

  • Ren H, Zuo J, Li W (2021) The impact of Tropical Atlantic SST variability on the Tropical atmosphere during Boreal Summer. J Clim 3416:6705–6723

  • Rodwell MJ, Hoskins BJ (2001) Subtropical anticyclones and summer monsoons. J Clim 14:3192–3211. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2001)0143192:SAASM2.0.CO;2

  • Sabeerali CT, Ajayamohan RS, Rao SA (2019) Loss of predictive skill of indian summer monsoon rainfall in NCEP CFSv2 due to misrepresentation of Atlantic Zonal Mode. Clim Dyn 52(7–8):4599–4619. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4390-1

  • Saji NH, Goswami BN, Vinayachandran P, Yamagata T (1999) A dipole mode in the tropical Indian Ocean. Nature 401:360–363

  • Saji NH, Yamagata T (2003) Possible impacts of Indian Ocean dipole mode events on global climate. Clim Res 25:151–169. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr025151

  • Vittal H, Villarini G, Zhang W (2020) Early prediction of indian summer rainfall by Atlantic Meridional Mode. Clim Dyn 54:2337–2346

  • Walker GT (1924) Correlation in seasonal variRajeevanations of weather. IV: a further study of world weather. Mem. Indian Meteorol Dept 24:275–332

  • Webster PJ, Yang S (1992) Monsoon and ENSO: selectively interactive systems. Quart J Roy Meteor Soc 118:877–926

  • Yang X, Huang P (2021) Restored relationship between ENSO and indian summer monsoon rainfall around 1999/2000. Innovation 2:1–8

Download references

Acknowledgements

The authors are thankful to Dr. R. Krishnan, Director, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), and Dr. Suryachandra A Rao, Program manager, Monsoon Mission, IITM for encouraging to carry out this research work. The IITM HPC support is duly acknowledged. A. R Dhakate and Kiran V. G also acknowledge Savitribhai Pule University Pune. The IITM is fully funded by the Ministry of Earth Sciences, Government of India. The authors have no conflicts of interest to declare. All the figures are prepared using GrADS software available freely (http://cola.gmu.edu/grads/).

Funding

No funding was received to conduct this study.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Ministry of Earth Sciences, Pune, 411008, India

    Prasanth A Pillai, Ashish R Dhakate & Kiran V. G

  2. Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Savithribhai Pule University, Pune, India

    Ashish R Dhakate & Kiran V. G

Authors
  1. Prasanth A Pillai
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Ashish R Dhakate
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Kiran V. G
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Contributions

P.A Pillai- Conceptualisation, supervision, methodology, plotting, validation, writing reviewing, and editing.

A.R Dhakate- Formal analysis, Validation, Software, plotting.

Kiran V.G- Data availability, plotting, reviewing.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Prasanth A Pillai.

Ethics declarations

Conflict of Interest

The authors declare no competing interests.

Ethics Approval

It is not necessary.

Consent to participate

All authors approved.

Consent for publication

All authors approved.

Additional information

Publisher’s Note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Rights and permissions

Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Pillai, P.A., Dhakate, A.R. & G, K.V. Different role of spring season Atlantic SST anomalies in indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) variability before and after early 2000. Clim Dyn 61, 2783–2796 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06725-7

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06725-7

Keywords

Search

Navigation