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Downscaled compound heatwave and heavy-precipitation analyses for Guangdong, China in the twenty-first century

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Abstract

Significant increases in both heatwaves and heavy precipitation were reported under global warming, leading to detrimental social, economic, and environmental impacts. However, future variations of such compound heatwave and heavy precipitation events (CHWHPs) were barely analyzed in Guangdong. Therefore, a downscaled compound heatwave-precipitation analysis approach (DCHP) was developed to explore the spatio-temporal variations of CHWHPs in Guangdong under two shared socioeconomic pathways (i.e., SSPs). Potential changes in four parameters (i.e., the occurrence frequency, the average duration, the total intensity, and the longest duration) of projected CHWHPs for the future (i.e., 2025–2054 and 2066–2095) and historical (i.e., 1985–2014) periods were analyzed based on the multi-model ensemble of 15 global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Projected Phase 6 (CMIP6). Additionally, the effects of multiple impact factors (GCM, SSP, and their interactions) on the compound events were investigated through a multilevel factorial analysis approach. The results showed that the majority of Guangdong would undergo a significant increasing trend in the projected temperature and precipitation (e.g., 0.43–0.61 °C per decade and − 7.79 to 43.02 mm per decade under SSP5–8.5). Spatial changes and interannual trends suggested that Guangdong would suffer more CHWHP events in the future, especially for 2066–2095 under SSP5–8.5. The variations of four parameters are projected to increase by 13.86 events, 2.27 days per event, 55.32 °C, and 7.13 days during 2066–2095 under SSP5–8.5, respectively; the MK test of four parameters are statistically significant and the Sen’s slopes are 0.0125%, 0.0027%, 0.1946%, and 0.0097% per decade, respectively. The higher increases in such parameters are expected to be concentrated in western, northwestern, and northeastern Guangdong. The factorial analysis results indicate that the GCM choice is a major impacting factor on the projected CHWHP parameters in two future periods; the contribution of such factor would decrease slightly from 2025–2054 to 2066–2095. The results can help support informed decision-making to mitigate and adapt to potential risks from compound events in multiple sectors under climate change, such as human health and agriculture.

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Data availability

All data generated or analysed during this study are included in this published article [and its supplementary information files].

Abbreviations

CHWHPs:

Compound heatwave and heavy precipitation events

DCHP:

Downscaled compound heatwave-precipitation analysis approach

SSPs:

Shared socioeconomic pathways

GCMs:

Global climate models

CMIP6:

The Coupled Model Intercomparison Projected Phase 6

CE:

Compound event

RCPs:

Representative concentration pathways

BCSD:

Bias-correction spatial disaggregation

Tmax:

Daily maximum 2 m temperature

PRCP:

Daily total precipitation

CDF:

Cumulative distribution functions

MME:

Multi-model ensemble

CEN:

The yearly number of compound events

CEDU:

The average duration of all yearly compound events

CETI:

The accumulated intensity of compound events within a year

CEL:

The length of the longest compound event within a year

BSISO:

The boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation

PDF:

Probability density distributions

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Acknowledgements

We are thankful for the Working Group of World Climate Research Programme for Global Climate Models (GCMs) (https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/projects/cmip6/) for daily gridded maximum temperature and total precipitation, European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) (https://www.ecmwf.int/) for the ERA5 climate variables. We are also very grateful for the helpful inputs from the Editor and anonymous reviewers.

Funding

This research was supported by the Natural Science Foundation (U2040212, 52221003, 52279002, 5227900), MWR/CAS Institute of Hydroecology, and Natural Science and Engineering Research Council of Canada.

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  1. State Key Joint Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control, China–Canada Center for Energy, Environment and Ecology Research, UR-BNU, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China

    Jiayan Ren, Guohe Huang, Xiong Zhou & Yongping Li

  2. Environmental Systems Engineering Program, University of Regina, Regina, SK, S4S 0A2, Canada

    Guohe Huang

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GHH, XZ, and JR conceived and designed the project. JR performed analyses and wrote the manuscript. GHH and XZ revised the manuscript critically. YL reviewed the manuscript. All authors contributed to the article. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

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Correspondence to Guohe Huang.

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Ren, J., Huang, G., Zhou, X. et al. Downscaled compound heatwave and heavy-precipitation analyses for Guangdong, China in the twenty-first century. Clim Dyn 61, 2885–2905 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06712-y

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