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Asymmetric impacts of El Niño–Southern Oscillation on the winter precipitation over South China: the role of the India–Burma Trough

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Abstract

The winter precipitation over South China (SCWP) can exert great impacts on the local ecosystem and human livelihood. Previous studies suggested that the inter-annual variability of SCWP can be affected by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) via the Northwest Pacific anticyclone (NWPAC). The present study investigates the role of the India–Burma Trough (IBT) in mediating the teleconnection between ENSO and the SCWP. During the El Niño mature winter, the slowdown of Walker circulation is evident over the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO). The low-level easterly wind anomaly is pronounced from the warm pool to the western TIO, which turns into the westerly wind anomaly over the northern TIO basin and then enhances IBT. Meanwhile, the Kelvin wave in the upper troposphere stimulated by El Niño propagates eastward toward Indian Ocean and induces the tropospheric warming over TIO. The resultant increase of the meridional temperature gradient leads to the southward shift of the westerly jet stream which favors the strengthening of IBT and the increase of SCWP. It is further shown that the IBT change is unclear in La Niña. This nonlinear feature can be largely attributed to the asymmetry in both ENSO amplitude and ENSO-related circulation anomalies. The present findings highlight the role of IBT, in addition to the well-known NWPAC, in bridging ENSO and SCWP.

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Data availability

The precipitation data is gained from CRU (http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/hrg/). The SST data is from the Hadley Centre of the U.K. Met Office (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadisst/data/download.html). The data of atmospheric circulation data is taken from NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis 1(http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/data.ncep.reanalysis.derived.html). This ONI and its detailed information can be found at the following website: http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php. The IBT and its detailed information can be accessed at: https://cmdp.ncc-cma.net/station/cn_india_burma_trough.php.

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Acknowledgements

This work was supported by the National Key Research & Development Program of China (2021YFA0718000), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41975097), the Innovative Development Special Project of China Meteorological Administration (CXFZ2021Z011) and Key Innovation Team of China Meteorological Administration “Climate Change Detection, Impact and Response” (CMA2022ZD03).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Key Laboratory for Climate Prediction Studies, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China

    Xiaohan Lin & Bo Lu

  2. College of Oceanography and State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing, China

    Xiaohan Lin, Gen Li, Chujie Gao & Lin Chen

  3. Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai), Zhuhai, China

    Gen Li

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  1. Xiaohan Lin
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Correspondence to Bo Lu.

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Lin, X., Lu, B., Li, G. et al. Asymmetric impacts of El Niño–Southern Oscillation on the winter precipitation over South China: the role of the India–Burma Trough. Clim Dyn 61, 2211–2227 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06675-0

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