Abstract
The effect of model resolution on the simulation of tropical cyclone (TC) landfall frequency in East Asia [including the South China Sea (SCS), Taiwan and coastal areas of East China (TWCN) and Japan (JP)] was investigated by comparing Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) type simulations on the basis of 50-km High Resolution Atmospheric Models (HiRAMs) and 25-km HiRAM. The number of TC landfalls in the TWCN region was realistically simulated by the 50-km HiRAM ensemble model. However, fewer (more) TCs were steered westward (northward) toward the SCS (JP) because of an overestimation of the monsoon trough in the western North Pacific (WNP). The overestimation created a low-level cyclonic circulation anomaly in the WNP, which substantially modified steering flow. Consequently, more (less) TC made landfall in JP (SCS). The overestimation of the monsoon trough in model was primarily resulted from compounding factors, including the AMIP type simulation, upscale feedback of TCs to mean flow and the monsoon flow–topography interaction in the Indochina Peninsula Mountains and Philippine. First, the SST was negatively correlated with precipitation in the WNP during the typhoon season for the observation. Conversely, the SST–precipitation relationship was positive in the AMIP run. Second, the upscale feedback of TCs to mean flow (monsoon trough) was overestimated, which in term contributed to the overestimation of monsoon trough. Third, the model underestimated the mountain lifting effect in the Indochina Peninsula and Philippine. Overall, the aforementioned biases were substantially improved by increasing model’s horizontal resolution from 50-km to 25-km HiRAM.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
Availability of data and materials
The GPCP v2.3 precipitation data was provided by NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSL, Boulder, Colorado, USA, from the website at https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.gpcp.html. CFSR data was from NCAR and was available at the website https://climatedataguide.ucar.edu/climate-data/climate-forecast-system-reanalysis-cfsr. The observed SST and sea-ice concentration are from the Met Office Hadley Centre, and was available at https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadisst/index.html. The best-track data was from JTWC and available at https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html. The HiRAM simulations are provided by Anthropogenic Climate Change Center (https://www.rcec.sinica.edu.tw/) and the data was available by a request e-mail. All calculation and figures were produced using the NCAR Command Language (NCL) (https://www.ncl.ucar.edu/) version 6.3.0.
References
Adler RF et al (2018) The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Monthly Analysis (New Version 2.3) and a review of 2017 global precipitation. Atmosphere 9(4):138. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos9040138
Bister M, Emanuel KA (2002) Low frequency variability of tropical cyclone potential intensity: 1. Interannual to interdecadal variability. J Geophys Res 107:4801. https://doi.org/10.1029/2001JD000776
Bretherton CS, McCaa JR, Grenier H (2004) A new parameterization for shallow cumulus convection and its application to marine subtropical cloud-topped boundary layers. Part I: description and 1D results. Mon Weather Rev 132:864–882
Camargo SJ (2013) Global and regional aspects of tropical cyclone activity in the CMIP5 models. J Clim 26:9880–9902
Camargo SJ, Barnston AG, Zebiak SE (2005) A statistical assessment of tropical cyclone activity in atmospheric general circulation models. Tellus 57A:589–604
Camargo SJ, Robertson AW, Gaffney SJ, Smyth P, Ghil M (2007) Cluster analysis of typhoon tracks. Part i: general properties. J Clim 20:3635–3653
Camargo SJ, Tippett MK, Sobel AH, Vecchi GA, Zhao M (2014) Testing the performance of tropical cyclone genesis indices in future climates using the HiRAM model. J Clim 27(24):9171–9196. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00505.1
Chen JH, Lin SJ (2011) The remarkable predictability of inter-annual variability of Atlantic hurricanes during the past decade. Geophys Res Lett 38:L11804. https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL047629
Chen TC, Wang SY, Yen MC (2006) Interannual variation of the tropical cyclone activity over the Western North Pacific. J Clim 19:5709–5720
Davis C, Bosart L (2006) The formation of Hurricane Humberto (2001): the importance of extratropical precursors. Q J R Meteorol Soc 132:2055–2085
Emanuel KA (2010) Tropical cyclone activity downscaled from NOAA–CIRES reanalysis, 1908–1958. J Adv Model Earth Syst. https://doi.org/10.3894/JAMES.2010.2.1
Emanuel KA, Nolan DS (2004) Tropical cyclone activity and global climate. In: Preprints, 26th conference on Hurricanes and tropical meteorology, Miami, FL, American Meteorological Society, pp 240–241
Ferreira CM, Irish JL, Olivera F (2014) Uncertainty in hurricane surge simulation due to land cover specification. J Geophys Res Oceans 119(3):1812–1827
Fu X, Wang B, Li T (2002) Impacts of air–sea coupling on the simulation of mean Asian summer monsoon in the ECHAM4 model. Mon Weather Rev 130:2889–2904
Gray WM (1968) Global view of the origin of tropical disturbances and storms. Mon Weather Rev 96:669–700
Gray WM (1979) Hurricanes: Their Formation, Structure and Likely Role in the Tropical Circulation. In: Shaw DB (ed) Meteorology over the Tropical Oceans. Royal Meteorological Society, James Glaisher House, Grenville Place, Bracknell, pp 155–218
Grossmann I, Morgan MG (2011) Tropical cyclones, climate change, and scientific uncertainty: what do we know, what does it mean, and what should be done? Clim Change 108(3):543–579
Harris LM, Lin SJ (2013) A two-way nested global-regional dynamical core on the cubed-sphere grid. Mon Weather Rev 141:283–306. https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-11-00201.1
Harris LM, Lin SJ, Tu CY (2016) High-resolution climate simulations using GFDL HiRAM with a stretched global grid. J Clim 29(11):4293–4314. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0389.1
Ho CH, Baik JJ, Kim JH, Gong DY, Sui CH (2004) Interdecadal changes in summertime typhoon tracks. J Clim 17:1767–1776. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017%3c1767:ICISTT%3e2.0.CO;2
Holland GJ (1995) Scale interaction in the western Pacific monsoon. Meteorol Atmos Phys 56:57–79. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01022521
Hong CC, Chang TC, Hsu HH (2014) Enhanced relationship between the tropical Atlantic SST and the summertime western North Pacific subtropical high after the early 1980s. J Geophys Res Atmos 119:3715–3372. https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JD021394
Hong CC, Tsou CH, Hsu PC, Chen KC, Liang HC, Hsu HH, Tu CY, Kitoh A (2021) Future changes in tropical cyclone intensity and frequency over the Western North Pacific based on 20-km HiRAM and MRI Models. J Clim 34(6):2235–2251. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0417.1
Hsu HH, Hung CH, Lo AK, Wu CC, Hung CW (2008) Influence of tropical cyclones on the estimation of climate variability in the tropical western North Pacific. J Clim 21(12):2960–2975. https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JCLI1847.1
Hsu LH, Su SH, Fovell RG, Kuo HC (2018) On typhoon track deflections near the East Coast of Taiwan. Mon Weather Rev 146:1495–1510
Hsu PC, Chen KC, Tsou CH, Hsu HH, Hong CC, Liang HC, Tu CY, Kitoh A (2021) Future changes in the frequency and destructiveness of landfalling tropical cyclones over East Asia projected by high-resolution AGCMs. Earth’s Future 9:e2020EF001888. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001888
Huang CY, Juan TC, Kuo HC, Chen JH (2020) Track deflection of Typhoon Maria (2018) during a westbound passage offshore of Northern Taiwan: topographic influence. Mon Weather Rev 148:4519–4544
Kang IS et al (2002) Intercomparison of the climatological variations of Asian summer monsoon precipitation simulated in 10 GCMs. Clim Dyn 19:383–395. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-002-0245-9
Knutson TR, Sirutis JJ, Garner ST, Held IM, Tuleya RE (2007) Simulation of the recent multidecadal increase of Atlantic hurricane activity using an 18-km-grid regional model. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 88:1549–1565. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-88-10-1549
Kuo HC, Chen JH, Williams RT, Chang CP (2001) Rossby waves in zonally opposing mean flow: behavior in Northwest Pacific summer monsoon. J Atmos Sci 58:1035–1050
Lau N, Ploshay JJ (2009) Simulation of synoptic- and subsynoptic-scale phenomena associated with the East Asian Summer Monsoon using a high-resolution GCM. Mon Weather Rev 137(1):137–160. https://doi.org/10.1175/2008MWR2511.1
Li Z, Yu W, Li T, Murty V, Tangang F (2013) Bimodal character of cyclone climatology in the Bay of Bengal modulated by monsoon seasonal cycle. J Clim 26:1033–1046. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00627.1
Manabe S, Holloway JL Jr, Stone HM (1970) Tropical circulation in a time-integration of a global model of the atmosphere. J Atmos Sci 27:580–613. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1970)027,0580:TCIATI.2.0.CO;2
Mei W, Xie SP (2016) Intensification of landfalling typhoons over the northwest Pacific since the late 1970s. Nat Geosci 25:753–757. https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2792
Murakami H, Sugi M (2010) Effect of model resolution on tropical cyclone climate projections. SOLA 6:73–76. https://doi.org/10.2151/sola.2010-019
Murakami H, Wang B (2010) Future change of North Atlantic tropical cyclone tracks: projection by a 20-km-mesh global atmospheric model. J Clim 23:2699–2721. https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3338.1
Murakami H, Wang B, Kitoh A (2011) Future change in western North Pacific typhoons: projections by a 20-km-mesh global atmospheric model. J Clim 24:1154–1169
Murakami H et al (2012) Future changes in tropical cyclone activity projected by the new high-resolution MRI-AGCM. J Clim 25:3237–3260
Putman WM, Lin SJ (2007) Finite-volume transport on various cubed-sphere grids. J Comput Phys 227:55–78. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcp.2007.07.022
Qi L, Wang Y (2012) The effect of mesoscale mountain over the East Indochina Peninsula on downstream summer rainfall over East Asia. J Clim 25:4495–4510. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00574.1
Rayner NA, Parker DE, Horton EB, Folland CK, Alexander LV, Rowell DP, Kent EC, Kaplan A (2003) Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. J Geophys Res 108(D14):4407. https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JD002670
Ritchie EA, Holland GJ (1999) Large-scale patterns associated with tropical cyclogenesis in the Western Pacific. Mon Weather Rev 127(9):2027–2043. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1999)127%3c2027:LSPAWT%3e2.0.CO;2
Roberts MJ, Camp J, Seddon J, Vidale PL, Hodges K, Vannière B et al (2020a) Impact of model resolution on tropical cyclone simulation using the HighResMIP–PRIMAVERA multimodel ensemble. J Clim 33(7):2557–2583. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0639.1
Roberts MJ, Camp J, Seddon J, Vidale PL, Hodges K, Vannière B et al (2020b) Projected future changes in tropical cyclones using the CMIP6 HighResMIP multimodel ensemble. Geophys Res Lett 47:e2020GL088662. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL088662
Saha S et al (2010) The NCEP climate forecast system reanalysis. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 91:1015–1057. https://doi.org/10.1175/2010BAMS3001.1
Song K, Zhao J, Zhan R, Tao L, Chen L (2022) Confidence and uncertainty in simulating tropical cyclone long-term variability using the CMIP6-HighResMIP. J Clim 35(19):2829–2849
Sperber KR, Hameed S, Potter GL, Boyle JS (1994) Simulation of the northern summer monsoon in the ECMWF model: sensitivity to horizontal resolution. Mon Weather Rev 122:2461–2481
Tam CY, Li T (2006) The origin and dispersion characteristics of the observed tropical summertime synoptic-scale waves over the western Pacific. Mon Weather Rev 134:1630–1646. https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR3147.1
Tippett MK, Camargo SJ, Sobel AH (2011) A Poisson regression index for tropical cyclone genesis and the role of large-scale vorticity in genesis. J Clim 24:2335–2357
Tsou CH, Hsu HH, Hsu PC (2014) The role of multi-scale interaction in synoptic-scale eddy kinetic energy over the western North Pacific in autumn. J Clim 27(10):3750–3766. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00380.1
Tsou CH, Huang PY, Tu CY, Chen CT, Tzeng TP, Cheng CT (2016) Present simulation and future projection of typhoon activity over western North Pacific and Taiwan/East Coast of China in 20-km HiRAM Climate Model. TAO 27(5):687–703
Vitart F, Anderson JL, Stern WF (1997) Simulation of interannual variability of tropical storm frequency in an ensemble of GCM integrations. J Clim 10:745–760
Wang B, Chan JCL (2002) How strong ENSO events affect tropical storm activity over the western North Pacific. J Clim 15(13):1643–1658. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015%3c1643:HSEEAT%3e2.0.CO;2
Wang B, Fan Z (1999) Choice of South Asian summer monsoon indices. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 80(4):629–638. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1999)080%3c0629:COSASM%3e2.0.CO;2
Wang B, Murakami H (2020) Dynamic genesis potential index for diagnosing present-day and future global tropical cyclone genesis. Environ Res Lett 15:114008
Wang B, Xiang B, Lee JY (2013) Subtropical high predictability establishes a promising way for monsoon and tropical storm predictions. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 110:2718–2722. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6953
Weng CH, Hsu HH (2017) Intraseasonal oscillation enhancing C5 typhoon occurrence over the tropical western North Pacific. Geophys Res Lett 44:3339–3345. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL072743
Wu CH, Hsu HH (2016) Role of the Indochina Peninsula narrow mountains in modulating the East Asian–western North Pacific summer monsoon. J Clim 29(12):4445–4459
Wu L, Wang B (2004) Assessing impacts of global warming on tropical cyclone tracks. J Clim 17:1686–1698. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017%3c1686:AIOGWO%3e2.0.CO;2
Wu L, Wang B, Geng S (2005) Growing influence of typhoon on East Asia. Geophys Res Lett 32:L18703. https://doi.org/10.1029/2005gl022937
Wu CH, Huang WR, Wang SYS (2018) Role of Indochina Peninsula topography in precipitation seasonality over East Asia. Atmosphere 9(7):255
Xie SP, Xu H, Saji NH, Wang Y, Liu WT (2006) Role of narrow mountains in large-scale organization of Asian monsoon convection. J Clim 19:3420–3429. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3777.1
Yang H, Sun SQ (2003) Longitudinal displacement of the subtropical high in the western Pacific in summer and its influence. Adv Atmos Sci 20:921–933. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02915515
Yao J, Zhou T, Guo Z, Chen X, Zou L, Sun Y (2017) Improved performance of high-resolution atmospheric models in simulating the East Asian summer monsoon rain belt. J Clim 30(21):8825–8840
Zhao M, Held IM, Lin SJ, Vecchi GA (2009) Simulations of global hurricane climatology, interannual variability, and response to global warming using a 50-km resolution GCM. J Clim 22:6653–6678. https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI3049.1
Acknowledgements
This study was supported by the National Science and Technology Council (NSTC), Taiwan (R. O. C.) under grant numbers 109-2111-M-003-002, 109-2111-M-845-001, 110-2111-M-003-002, 110-2111-M-845-001, and 109-2121-M-001-004. The authors would like to express their gratitude to the National Center for High-Performance Computing (NCHC), and the National Applied Research Laboratories (NARLabs) for providing computer facilities. We also thank Mr. HC Liang to provide the simulations and TC data. This manuscript was edited by Wallace Academic Editing.
Funding
This study was supported by the National Science and Technology Council (NSTC), Taiwan (R. O. C.) under grant numbers 109-2111-M-003-002, 109-2111-M-845-001, 110-2111-M-003-002, 110–2111-M-845-001, and 109-2121-M-001-004.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Contributions
K-CC wrote the main manuscript and prepared the figures and tables; C-HT and C-CH wrote part of text and revised the manuscript; H-HH and C-YT provided simulations and reviewed manuscript.
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Conflict of interest
The authors have no competing interests as defined by Springer, or other interests that might be perceived to influence the results and/or discussions reported in the paper.
Additional information
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.
About this article
Cite this article
Chen, KC., Tsou, CH., Hong, CC. et al. Effect of model resolution on simulation of tropical cyclone landfall in East Asia based on a comparison of 25- and 50-km HiRAMs. Clim Dyn 61, 2085–2101 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06668-z
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06668-z