Abstract
Several of the best track datasets reveal the earlier end of the tropical cyclone (TC) season over the main WNP (the east of the Philippine Islands) from 1980 to 2019, especially by the date of the upper decile of the storm days (constructed by adding one to each date if any TC exists). The enhanced vertical wind shear (VWS) during the late season (October and November) is consistent with this earlier end of the TC season. In October, the enhanced VWS is the result of the increased zonal and meridional shears, which are affected by the earlier circulation transition of the East Asian summer monsoon recessed and winter monsoon onset during late October. During November, the zonal wind shear dominates the enhanced VWS, which vertically is the opposite trend of air temperature below and above the tropopause and the meridionally opposite trend of air temperature in the north and south of 30°N. The opposite air temperature trends induce the thermal wind balance, which causes enhanced westerlies in the mid-latitudes and strong zonal shear. Three pathways increase VWS in the late season over the WNP, leading to the earlier end of the TC season. The strong impact of VWS limits TC formation, although the ambient warming underlying the surface (supports a broader and stronger potential intensity). The effect of the thermodynamical parameter, depending on relative humidity at the low and middle troposphere, is uncertain because of the inconsistent and weak trends in October between ERA5 and MERRA-2, but they both become unfavorable to TC genesis during November. The practically important meaning of the VWS for the TC season provides a possibility for future projections of the TC season.
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Data availability
The best track datasets are from JMA (https://www.jma.go.jp/jma/jma-eng/jma-center/rsmc-hp-pub-eg/besttrack.html), CMA (https://www.tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/), JTWC (https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html?best-tracks), and IBTrACS (https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/ibtracs/). The reanalysis datasets are from ERA5 (http://doi.org/10.24381/cds.bd0915c6) and MERRA-2 (https://doi.org/10.5067/A7S6XP56VZWS).
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Acknowledgements
We thank Dr. Robert Korty at Texas A&M University; he gave a lot of help with this earlier work. Thanks for the CMIP5 project and the International Laboratory for High-Resolution Earth System Prediction. We thank two anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments, which greatly improved the original draft of this paper.
Funding
Thank you for the Council Scholarship of China providing the funding. The work is supported by the Shandong Natural Science Foundation Project (ZR2019ZD12) and the National Science Foundation of China (41975061).
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Wu, Y., Huang, F. & Xu, S. The earlier end of the tropical cyclone season over the Western North Pacific by environmental cyclogenesis factors. Clim Dyn 61, 1293–1309 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06627-0
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06627-0