Abstract
Precipitation extremes are a major impact-relevant implication of climate change. Rising temperatures increase the moisture holding capacity at a rate of \(\approx 7\%K^{-1}\), called the Clausius-Claypeyron (CC) scaling, which can lead to intense precipitation which last for short duration. At a regional level, the scaling of extremes deviates from this expected scaling rate. Large scale circulation dynamics and local variability in thermodynamic influences are suspected to cause these deviation, but these drivers differ across seasons. In the present study, we use ERA5 reanalysis to evaluate the seasonal changes in precipitation-temperature scaling rates over the Indian subcontinent. We further determine the deviations from the expected CC scaling rate, and the precipitation extremes are decomposed to their dynamic and thermodynamic contribution across different seasons. It is found that significant seasonal contrast exists in the dynamic and thermodynamic contributions, with the latter dominating during the Indian summer monsoon season, while the former being higher during the pre-monsoon and post-monsoon season. Further analysis highlights that the lower dynamic contribution is attributed to drop in dew point temperatures and Convective Available Potential Energy during extremes. The primary drivers causing the extremes in different seasons are also pointed out, further improving the understanding of how the intensity and frequency of precipitation extremes changes spatially across different seasons, and what are the physical drivers causing these changes.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
Data availability
Data relevant to the paper can be downloaded from the following websites. ERA5 precipitation and temperature data on single levels : https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/cdsapp#!/dataset/reanalysis-era5-single-levels, ERA5 data on pressure levels - https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/cdsapp#!/dataset/reanalysis-era5-pressure-levels.
References
Alexander LV (2016) Global observed long-term changes in temperature and precipitation extremes: A review of progress and limitations in IPCC assessments and beyond. Weather Clim Extremes 11:4–16. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2015.10.007. https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S2212094715300414
Ali H, Mishra V (2017) Contrasting response of rainfall extremes to increase in surface air and dewpoint temperatures at urban locations in India. Sci Rep 7(1):1228. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-01306-1, http://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-017-01306-1
Ali H, Mishra V (2018a) Contributions of dynamic and thermodynamic scaling in Subdaily precipitation extremes in India. Geophys Res Lett 45(5):2352–2361. https://doi.org/10.1002/2018GL077065
Ali H, Mishra V (2018b) Increase in Subdaily Precipitation Extremes in India Under 1.5 and 2.0 °C Warming Worlds. Geophys Res Lett 45(14):6972–6982. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL078689
Ali H, Fowler HJ, Mishra V (2018) Global Observational Evidence of Strong Linkage Between Dew Point Temperature and Precipitation Extremes. Geophys Res Lett 45(22):12,320-12,330. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL080557
Ali H, Fowler HJ, Lenderink G, et al (2021a) Consistent Large-Scale Response of Hourly Extreme Precipitation to Temperature Variation Over Land. Geophys Res Lett 48(4). https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL090317
Ali H, Peleg N, Fowler HJ (2021b) Global Scaling of Rainfall With Dewpoint Temperature Reveals Considerable Ocean-Land Difference. Geophys Res Lett 48(15). https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL093798
Allan RP, Soden BJ (2008) Atmospheric warming and the amplification of precipitation extremes. Science 321(5895):1481–1484. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1160787
Anandh PC, Vissa NK (2020) On the linkage between extreme rainfall and the Madden-Julian Oscillation over the Indian region. Meteorol Appl 27(2):e1901. https://doi.org/10.1002/met.1901
Bao J, Sherwood SC, Alexander LV, et al (2017) Future increases in extreme precipitation exceed observed scaling rates. Nature Climate Change 7(2):128–132. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3201, http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate3201
Bao J, Sherwood SC, Alexander LV et al (2018) Comments on “temperature-extreme precipitation scaling: a two-way causality?’’. Int J Climatol 38(12):4661–4663. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5665
Barbero R, Westra S, Lenderink G, et al (2018) Temperature-extreme precipitation scaling: a two-way causality? International J Climatol 38(S1). https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5370
Bhattacharyya S, Sreekesh S, King A (2022) Characteristics of extreme rainfall in different gridded datasets over India during 1983–2015. Atmospheric Research 267:105,930. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2021.105930, https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0169809521004865
Blenkinsop S, Chan SC, Kendon EJ et al (2015) Temperature influences on intense UK hourly precipitation and dependency on large-scale circulation. Environmental Research Letters 10(5):054,021. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/5/054021 (publisher: IOP Publishing)
Chen W, Cui H, Ge Q (2022) The spatial and seasonal dependency of daily precipitation extremes on the temperature in China from 1957 to 2017. Int J Climatol 42(3):1560–1575. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7320
Dairaku K, Emori S (2006) Dynamic and thermodynamic influences on intensified daily rainfall during the Asian summer monsoon under doubled atmospheric CO \(_{2}\) conditions: INTENSIFIED EXTREME ASIAN MONSOON. Geophysical Research Letters 33(1):n/a–n/a. https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL024754
Dimri AP (2013) Intraseasonal oscillation associated with the Indian winter monsoon. J Geophy Res 118(3):1189–1198. https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50144
Emori S, Brown SJ (2005) Dynamic and thermodynamic changes in mean and extreme precipitation under changed climate: MEAN AND EXTREME PRECIPITATION CHANGES. Geophysical Research Letters 32(17). https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL023272
Evan AT, Camargo SJ (2011) A Climatology of Arabian Sea Cyclonic Storms. Journal of Climate 24(1):140–158. https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3611.1, https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/24/1/2010jcli3611.1.xml, publisher: American Meteorological Society Section: Journal of Climate
Fadhel S, Rico-Ramirez MA, Han D (2018) Sensitivity of peak flow to the change of rainfall temporal pattern due to warmer climate. Journal of Hydrology 560:546–559. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.03.041, https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0022169418302075
Fischer EM, Knutti R (2016) Observed heavy precipitation increase confirms theory and early models. Nat Clim Change 6(11):986–991. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3110, http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate3110
Fowler HJ, Lenderink G, Prein AF, et al (2021) Anthropogenic intensification of short-duration rainfall extremes. Nature Reviews Earth & Environment 2(2):107–122. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-020-00128-6, http://www.nature.com/articles/s43017-020-00128-6
Francis PA, Gadgil S (2006) Intense rainfall events over the west coast of India. Meteorol Atmosp Phys 94(1):27–42. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-005-0167-2
Groisman PY, Knight RW, Easterling DR et al (2005) Trends in Intense Precipitation in the Climate Record. J Clim 18(9):1326–1350. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3339.1
Guerreiro SB, Fowler HJ, Barbero R, et al (2018) Detection of continental-scale intensification of hourly rainfall extremes. Nature Climate Change 8(9):803–807. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0245-3, http://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0245-3
Hamada A, Murayama Y, Takayabu YN (2014) Regional Characteristics of Extreme Rainfall Extracted from TRMM PR Measurements. Journal of Climate 27(21):8151–8169. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00107.1, https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/27/21/jcli-d-14-00107.1.xml, publisher: American Meteorological Society Section: Journal of Climate
Hardwick Jones R, Westra S, Sharma A (2010) Observed relationships between extreme sub-daily precipitation, surface temperature, and relative humidity: RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN PRECIP, TEMP, AND RH. Geophys Res Lett 37(22):n/a–n/a. https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL045081
Herath SM, Sarukkalige R, Nguyen VTV (2018) Evaluation of empirical relationships between extreme rainfall and daily maximum temperature in Australia. J Hydrol 556:1171–1181. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.01.060, https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0022169417300690
Hersbach H, Bell B, Berrisford P et al (2020) The ERA5 global reanalysis. Q J R Meteorol Soc 146(730):1999–2049. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3803
Hosseini-Moghari SM, Sun S, Tang Q, et al (2022) Scaling of precipitation extremes with temperature in China’s mainland: Evaluation of satellite precipitation data. J Hydrol 606:127,391. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.127391, https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0022169421014414
Huang D, Zhu J, Xiao X et al (2021) Understanding the sensitivity of hourly precipitation extremes to the warming climate over Eastern China. Environ Res Commun 3(8):081,002. https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ac17e1 (publisher: IOP Publishing)
Kharin VV, Zwiers FW, Zhang X et al (2013) Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in the CMIP5 ensemble. Clim Change 119(2):345–357. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0705-8
Kikuchi K, Wang B (2010) Formation of tropical cyclones in the Northern Indian ocean associated with two types of tropical intraseasonal oscillation modes. J Meteorol Soc Jpn Ser II 88(3):475–496. https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2010-313
Krishnamurthy V, Ajayamohan RS (2010) Composite Structure of Monsoon Low Pressure Systems and Its Relation to Indian Rainfall. J Clim 23(16):4285–4305. https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI2953.1, https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/23/16/2010jcli2953.1.xml, publisher: American Meteorological Society Section: Journal of Climate
Kumari A, Kumar P, Dubey AK, et al (2021) Dynamical and thermodynamical aspects of precipitation events over India. Int J Climatol p joc.7409. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7409
Lélé MI, Leslie LM, Lamb PJ (2015) Analysis of low-level atmospheric moisture transport associated with the west african monsoon. J Clim 28(11):4414–4430. https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-14-00746.1
Lenderink G, van Meijgaard E (2008) Increase in hourly precipitation extremes beyond expectations from temperature changes. Nat Geosci 1(8):511–514. https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo262, http://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo262
Lenderink G, Barbero R, Loriaux JM et al (2017) Super-Clausius-Clapeyron Scaling of Extreme Hourly Convective Precipitation and Its Relation to Large-Scale Atmospheric Conditions. J Clim 30(15):6037–6052. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0808.1
Lenderink G, Barbero R, Westra S et al (2018) Reply to comments on “Temperature-extreme precipitation scaling: a two-way causality?’’. Int J Climatol 38(12):4664–4666. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5799
Liang W, Zhang M (2021) Summer and winter precipitation in East Asia scale with global warming at different rates. Communications Earth & Environment 2(1):150. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-021-00219-2, http://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-021-00219-2
Liu B, Tan X, Gan TY, et al (2020) Global atmospheric moisture transport associated with precipitation extremes: Mech Clim Change Impacts. WIREs Water 7(2). https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1412
Magan B, Kim S, Wasko C et al (2020) Impact of atmospheric circulation on the rainfall-temperature relationship in Australia. Environ Res Lett 15(9):094,098. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abab35
Mahto SS, Mishra V (2019) Does ERA-5 outperform other reanalysis products for Hydrologic Applications in India? J Geophys Res 124(16):9423–9441. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD031155
Marelle L, Myhre G, Hodnebrog Ø et al (2018) The changing seasonality of extreme daily precipitation. Geophys Res Lett 45(20):11–352
Medeiros B, Clement AC, Benedict JJ, et al (2021) Investigating the impact of cloud-radiative feedbacks on tropical precipitation extremes. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science 4(1):1–10. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-021-00174-x, https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-021-00174-x, number: 1 Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
Mishra V, Smoliak BV, Lettenmaier DP et al (2012) A prominent pattern of year-to-year variability in Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall. Proc Natl Acad Sci 109(19):7213–7217. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1119150109 (publisher: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences)
Mohan T, Kumar KN, Madhulatha A, et al (2021) Intriguing aspects of rainfall initiation over rainshadow region during boreal summer monsoon. Atmospheric Research 261:105,746. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2021.105746, https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0169809521003021
Mohanty UC, Osuri KK, Pattanayak S et al (2012) An observational perspective on tropical cyclone activity over Indian seas in a warming environment. Natural Hazards 63(3):1319–1335. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-011-9810-z
Moustakis Y, Onof CJ, Paschalis A (2020) Atmospheric convection, dynamics and topography shape the scaling pattern of hourly rainfall extremes with temperature globally. Communications Earth & Environment 1(1):11. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-020-0003-0, https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-020-0003-0
Mukherjee S, Aadhar S, Stone D, et al (2018) Increase in extreme precipitation events under anthropogenic warming in India. Weather and Climate Extremes 20:45–53. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2018.03.005, https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S2212094717301068
Myhre G, Alterskjær K, Stjern CW et al (2019) Frequency of extreme precipitation increases extensively with event rareness under global warming. Sci Rep 9(1):1–10
Nayak S (2018) Do Extreme Precipitation Intensities Linked to Temperature Over India Follow the Clausius–Clapeyron Relationship? Curr Sci 115(3):391. https://doi.org/10.18520/cs/v115/i3/391-392, https://www.currentscience.ac.in/Volumes/115/03/0391.pdf
O’Gorman PA, Schneider T (2009) The physical basis for increases in precipitation extremes in simulations of 21st-century climate change. Proc Natl Acad Sci 106(35):14,773-14,777. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0907610106
Oueslati B, Yiou P, Jézéquel A (2019) Revisiting the dynamic and thermodynamic processes driving the record-breaking January 2014 precipitation in the southern UK. Scientific Reports 9(1):2859. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-39306-y, http://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-39306-y
Ougahi JH, Mahmood SA (2022) Evaluation of satellite-based and reanalysis precipitation datasets by hydrologic simulation in the Chenab river basin. Journal of Water and Climate Change 13(3):1563–1582. https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2022.410, https://iwaponline.com/jwcc/article/13/3/1563/86339/Evaluation-of-satellite-based-and-reanalysis
O’Gorman PA (2015) Precipitation extremes under climate change. Curr Clim Change Rep 1(2):49–59. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-015-0009-3
O’Gorman PA, Schneider T (2009) Scaling of precipitation extremes over a wide range of climates simulated with an idealized GCM. J Clim 22(21):5676–5685. https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI2701.1
Papalexiou SM, Montanari A (2019) Global and Regional Increase of Precipitation Extremes under Global Warming. Water Resources Res p 2018WR024067. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018WR024067
Park IH, Min SK (2017) Role of convective precipitation in the relationship between Subdaily extreme precipitation and temperature. J Clim 30(23):9527–9537. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0075.1
Pattanaik DR, Rajeevan M (2010) Variability of extreme rainfall events over India during southwest monsoon season: ANALYSIS OF EXTREME RAINFALL EVENTS DURING JJAS. Meteorol Appl 17(1):88–104. https://doi.org/10.1002/met.164
Pfahl S, O’Gorman PA, Fischer EM (2017) Understanding the regional pattern of projected future changes in extreme precipitation. Nature Climate Change 7(6):423–427. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3287, http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate3287
Romatschke U, Medina S, Houze RA (2010) Regional, Seasonal, and Diurnal Variations of Extreme Convection in the South Asian Region. J Clim 23(2):419–439. https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI3140.1, https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/23/2/2009jcli3140.1.xml, publisher: American Meteorological Society Section: Journal of Climate
Roxy MK, Ghosh S, Pathak A, et al (2017) A threefold rise in widespread extreme rain events over central India. Nature Communications 8(1):708. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-017-00744-9, https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-017-00744-9, number: 1 Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
Saha U, Sateesh M (2022) Rainfall extremes on the rise: Observations during 1951–2020 and bias-corrected CMIP6 projections for near- and late 21st century over Indian landmass. J Hydrol 608:127,682. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.127682, https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022169422002578
Sudharsan N, Karmakar S, Fowler HJ et al (2020) Large-scale dynamics have greater role than thermodynamics in driving precipitation extremes over India. Clim Dyn 55(9–10):2603–2614. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05410-3
Trenberth KE, Dai A, Rasmussen RM et al (2003) The Changing Character of Precipitation. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 84(9):1205–1218. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-84-9-1205
Tyagi B, Naresh Krishna V, Satyanarayana ANV (2011) Study of thermodynamic indices in forecasting pre-monsoon thunderstorms over Kolkata during STORM pilot phase 2006–2008. Nat Hazards 56(3):681–698. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-010-9582-x
Utsumi N, Seto S, Kanae S, et al (2011) Does higher surface temperature intensify extreme precipitation?: TEMPERATURE AND EXTREME RAINFALL. Geophys Res Lett 38(16):n/a–n/a. https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL048426
Virts KS, Houze RA (2016) Seasonal and Intraseasonal Variability of Mesoscale Convective Systems over the South Asian Monsoon Region. J Atmosp Sci 73(12):4753–4774. https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-16-0022.1, https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/atsc/73/12/jas-d-16-0022.1.xml, publisher: American Meteorological Society Section: Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences
Vissa NK, Satyanarayana ANV, Prasad Kumar B (2013) Intensity of tropical cyclones during pre- and post-monsoon seasons in relation to accumulated tropical cyclone heat potential over Bay of Bengal. Nat Hazards 68(2):351–371. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-013-0625-y
Vittal H, Ghosh S, Karmakar S, et al (2016) Lack of Dependence of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall Extremes on Temperature: An Observational Evidence. Sci Rep 6(1):31,039. https://doi.org/10.1038/srep31039, http://www.nature.com/articles/srep31039
Wang Z, Duan A, Yang S et al (2017) Atmospheric moisture budget and its regulation on the variability of summer precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau: TP Moisture Budget and Precipitation. J Geophys Res 122(2):614–630. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JD025515
Wasko C, Lu WT, Mehrotra R (2018) Relationship of extreme precipitation, dry-bulb temperature, and dew point temperature across Australia. Environ Res Lett 13(7):074,031. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aad135
Westra S, Alexander LV, Zwiers FW (2013) Global Increasing Trends in Annual Maximum Daily Precipitation. J Clim 26(11):3904–3918. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00502.1
Westra S, Fowler HJ, Evans JP et al (2014) Future changes to the intensity and frequency of short-duration extreme rainfall: FUTURE INTENSITY OF SUB-DAILY RAINFALL. Rev Geophys 52(3):522–555. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014RG000464
Williams AIL, O’Gorman PA (2022) Summer-winter contrast in the response of precipitation extremes to climate change over Northern Hemisphere land. Geophys Res Lett 49(10):e2021GL096,531. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL096531
Yamada TJ, Hoshino T, Suzuki A (2021) Using a massive high-resolution ensemble climate data set to examine dynamic and thermodynamic aspects of heavy precipitation change. Atmosp Sci Lett 22(12). https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.1065
Yang Z, Dominguez F (2019) Investigating Land Surface Effects on the Moisture Transport over South America with a Moisture Tagging Model. Journal of Climate 32(19):6627–6644. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0700.1, https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/32/19/jcli-d-18-0700.1.xml, publisher: American Meteorological Society Section: Journal of Climate
Yong Z, Xiong J, Wang Z et al (2021) Relationship of extreme precipitation, surface air temperature, and dew point temperature across the Tibetan Plateau. Clim Change 165(1–2):41. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03076-2
Zhang W, Villarini G, Wehner M (2019) Contrasting the responses of extreme precipitation to changes in surface air and dew point temperatures. Clim Change 154(1–2):257–271. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-019-02415-8
Zhang X, Zwiers FW, Li G, et al (2017) Complexity in estimating past and future extreme short-duration rainfall. Nat Geosci 10(4):255–259. https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2911, http://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo2911
Acknowledgements
The authors would like to acknowledge ECMWF for making available the ERA5 reanalysis climatological variables on single levels and different pressure levels.
Funding
The authors declare that no funds, grants, or other support were received during the preparation of this manuscript.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Contributions
AS: analysis and interpretation the results, writing, editing the original draft. NKV: supervision, conceptualization and writing and reviewing the original draft. IR: interpretation of the results, reviewing and editing the original draft.
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Conflict of interest
Corresponding author declares on behalf of all the authors, there is no competing interest that influence the outcome reported in this manuscript.
Additional information
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Electronic supplementary material
Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.
Rights and permissions
Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.
About this article
Cite this article
Sengupta, A., Vissa, N.K. & Roy, I. Seasonal variations in the dynamic and thermodynamic response of precipitation extremes in the Indian subcontinent. Clim Dyn 61, 831–848 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06613-6
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06613-6