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Towards Ensemble-Based Kilometer-Scale Climate Simulations over the Third Pole Region

Climate Dynamics volume 60, pages 4055–4081 (2023)Cite this article

Abstract

The Tibetan Plateau and its surrounding mountains have an average elevation of 4,400 m and a glaciated area of \(\sim \)100,000 \(\hbox {km}^{2}\) giving it the name “Third Pole (TP) region”. The TP is the headwater of many major rivers in Asia that provide fresh water to hundreds of millions of people. Climate change is altering the energy and water cycle of the TP at a record pace but the future of this region is highly uncertain due to major challenges in simulating weather and climate processes in this complex area. The Convection-Permitting Third Pole (CPTP) project is a Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) Flagship Pilot Study (FPS) that aims to revolutionize our understanding of climate change impacts on the TP through ensemble-based, kilometer-scale climate modeling. Here we present the experimental design and first results from multi-model, multi-physics ensemble simulations of three case studies. The five participating modeling systems show high performance across a range of meteorological situations and are close to having ”observational quality” in simulating precipitation and near-surface temperature. This is partly due to the large differences between observational datasets in this region, which are the leading source of uncertainty in model evaluations. However, a systematic cold bias above 2000 m exists in most modeling systems. Model physics sensitivity tests performed with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model show that planetary boundary layer (PBL) physics and microphysics contribute equally to model uncertainties. Additionally, larger domains result in better model performance. We conclude by describing high-priority research needs and the next steps in the CPTP project.

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Data availability

The datasets generated during and analysed during the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.

Notes

  1. A list can be found here: https://cordex.org/experiment-guidelines/flagship-pilot-studies/.

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Acknowledgements

UIBK acknowledges PRACE for awarding them access to Piz Daint at the Swiss National Supercomputing Center (CSCS, Switzerland). They also acknowledge the Federal Office for Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss, the Swiss National Supercomputing Centre (CSCS), and ETH Zürich for their contributions to the development of the GPU-accelerated version of COSMO. In addition, they acknowledge DKRZ for providing COSMO-ready ERA5 boundary data. We would like to acknowledge high-performance computing support from Cheyenne (doi:10.5065/D6RX99HX) provided by NCAR’s Computational and Information Systems Laboratory. The MPAS simulations were performed using computational resources provided by the National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center (NERSC), a DOE Office of Science User Facility supported by the Office of Science of the U.S. Department of Energy under Contract DE-AC02-05CH11231. K.S. and R.L. were supported by the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Science Biological and Environmental Research as part of the Global and Regional Model Analysis program area. S.S acknowledges the Data Analyzer in JAMSTEC for the WRF simulations and is supported by JSPS KAKENHI Grant Number JP20K04095. The computations by the University of Gothenburg were enabled by resources provided by the Swedish National Infrastructure for Computing (SNIC) at the National Supercomputer Centre in Sweden (NSC) partially funded by the Swedish Research Council through grant agreement no. 2018-05973. XC acknowledges the high-performance computing support from the Texas Advanced Computing Center (TACC) and San Diego Supercomputer Center (SDSC). S.J. acknowledges the support provided for the RegCM4 simulations by the IITM Pratyush high performance computing facility. This is a contribution no 10 to CORDEX-FPS-CPTP.

Funding

UHH is funded by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG, German Research Foundation) under Germany’s Excellence Strategy—EXC 2037 ’CLICCS—Climate, Climatic Change, and Society’—Project Number: 390683824, contribution to the Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN) of Universität Hamburg. PKP is funded by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG, German Research Foundation)— TRR 301—Project-ID 428312742. SS and LL gratefully acknowledge the support of a Bjerknes Fast Track Initiative from the Norwegian Education Directorate and HPC support through NOTUR/NorStore projects NN9820K/NS9001K. NCAR is sponsored by the National Science Foundation under Cooperative Agreement 1852977. PNNL is operated for the Department of Energy by Battelle Memorial Institute under contract DE-AC05-76RL01830. UGOT is supported by TPE via the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (XDA20060402) and Swedish MERGE. UHH also acknowledges the use of DKRZ resources granted by its Scientific Steering Committee under project ID numbers uc0977 & mh1212.

Author information

Author notes

  1. Praveen Kumar Pothapakula

    Present address: Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Hermann-von-Helmholtz-Platz 1, Eggenstein-Leopoldshafen, 76344, Baden-Württemberg, Germany

  2. Andreas F Prein, Nikolina Ban, Tinghai Ou, Jianping Tangy, Koichi Sakaguchi, Emily Collier, Sanjay Jayanarayanan, Lu Li, Stefan Sobolowski, Xingchao Chen, Xu Zhou, Hui-Wen Lai, Shiori Sugimoto, Liwei Zou, Shabeh ul Hasson, Marie Ekstrom, Bodo Ahrens, Romilly Stuart, Hans Christian Steen-Larsen, Ruby Leung, Danijel Belusic, Julia Kukulies, Julia Curio and Deliang Chen contributed equally to this work.

Authors and Affiliations

  1. MMM Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, 3090 Center Green Dr., Boulder, 80301, CO, USA

    Andreas F. Prein

  2. Department of Atmospheric and Cryospheric Sciences, University of Innsbruck, Innrain 52f, Innsbruck, 6020, Tirol, Austria

    Nikolina Ban & Emily Collier

  3. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, 902 Battelle Blvd, Richland, WA, 99354, USA

    Koichi Sakaguchi & Ruby Leung

  4. Centre for Climate Change Research, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Ministry of Earth Sciences, Dr. Homi Bhabha Road, Pune, 411008, Maharashtra, India

    Sanjay Jayanarayanan

  5. NORCE Norwegian Research Centre, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Nygårdsgaten 112, Bergen, 5008, Norway

    Lu Li & Stefan Sobolowski

  6. Department of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science, and Center for Advanced Data Assimilation and Predictability Techniques, The Pennsylvania State University, Walker Building, University Park, PA, 16802, USA

    Xingchao Chen

  7. Department of Earth Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Guldhedsgatan 5A, Gothenburg, 40530, Sweden

    Tinghai Ou, Hui-Wen Lai, Julia Kukulies, Julia Curio & Deliang Chen

  8. National Tibetan Plateau Data Center, State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System and Resource Environment, Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Building 3, No.16 Lincui Road, Beijing, 100101, China

    Xu Zhou

  9. Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, 3173-25 Showa-machi, Kanazawa-ku, Yokohama, 2360001, Japan

    Shiori Sugimoto

  10. Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), Folkborgsvägen 17, Norrköping, 601 76, Sweden

    Danijel Belusic

  11. Nanjing University (NJU), 163 Xianlin Road, Qixia District, Nanjing, 210023, Jiangsu Province, China

    Jianping Tang

  12. Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, HuaYanLi No. 40, QiJiaHuoZi, ChaoYang District, BeiJing, 100049, China

    Liwei Zou

  13. HAREME Lab, Institute of Geography, Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN), Universität Hamburg, Bundesstrasse 55, Hamburg, 20146, Hamburg, Germany

    Shabeh ul Hasson

  14. Cardiff University, Park Place, Cardiff, Wales, CF10 3AT, UK

    Marie Ekstrom

  15. University of Bergen, P.O.Box 7800, Bergen, 5020, Norway

    Romilly Stuart & Hans Christian Steen-Larsen

  16. Institute for Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, Goethe University, Altenhöferallee 1, Frankfurt am Main, 60438, Hesse, Germany

    Praveen Kumar Pothapakula & Bodo Ahrens

  17. Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, IPSL, UMR 8212, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ-UPS, Gif sur Yvette, France

    Romilly Stuart

  18. Department of Geophysics, Faculty of Science, University of Zagreb, Horvatovac 95, Zagreb, Croatia

    Danijel Belusic

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Contributions

All authors contributed to the study conception and design. The first draft of the manuscript was written by Andreas F. Prein and Nikolina Ban and all authors commented on previous versions of the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

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Correspondence to Andreas F. Prein.

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Author Contributions

Prof. BA was added as an author during the revisions of this paper. Prof. Ahrens contributed to the creation of the GUF-ICON2.3.6 simulations and supported the writing of this manuscript.

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Prein, A.F., Ban, N., Ou, T. et al. Towards Ensemble-Based Kilometer-Scale Climate Simulations over the Third Pole Region. Clim Dyn 60, 4055–4081 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06543-3

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