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Surface drying impacts hot extremes in India: unravelling the exceptional 2010 and 2016 hot events

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Abstract

We highlight some of the unrecognised aspects of land–atmosphere feedbacks that drive the summer season (March–May) temperature extremes and unleash compounding impacts in India, resembling other hotspots of the world. Analysing a variety of drought and heat metrics, we find persistence of surface drying, following the monsoon season (June–September) rainfall deficit, as the key driver of the twenty-first century hot extremes. In correspondence to a nationwide warming of 0.5 °C since 2001, the hot days (HD) frequency have dramatically risen by ~ 60%. This has contributed to an accelerated summer warming of 0.28 °C per decade, two times faster than the annual average temperature. Strong coupling at the daily and seasonal scales provides useful predictive information about the summer heating process. We particularly illustrate how local feedbacks, in the backdrop of blocking anticyclones, played an important role in the evolution and amplification of India’s hottest and second-hottest summers during the 2009/2010 and 2015/2016 hydrological years, respectively. Under cyclonic conditions, in turn, a weakened feedback produced the coolest summer in 2011. Meteorological characteristics of the 2010 record-breaking event in India, reflected through HD and heat wave duration (HWD), are comparable at the global scale. But it’s difference with respect to lethality helped us to explore the nuances of deadly heatwaves, particularly their unique location specificity. Our study suggests surface drying under unabated anthropogenic global warming may accelerate feedback processes, unfolding new challenges with widespread socioeconomic impacts, in absence of precautionary policy measures.

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Data availability

All data needed in this study are obtained from either open sources or from government agencies. For example, the gridded rainfall and temperature data are procured from the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), but we are unable to share as per the IMD policy. However, interested researchers can procure those data following the procedures given in their website (http://www.imdpune.gov.in/ndc_new/Request.html). The modelled daily evaporation data of Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model (GLEAM) and the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) are obtained from their dedicated websites. The latent and sensible heat data are from the NASA Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) available from the Goddard Modeling and Assimilation Office and the GES DISC. The monthly gridded GRACE TWS data, processed by different agency, utilized in this study are publicly available at NASA’s website (http://grace.jpl.nasa.gov). Data analysis was performed using the publicly available software R, so also the graphics. All scripts and metadata are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.

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Acknowledgements

We appreciate the constructive comments and suggestions of two anonymous reviewers. We acknowledge the support of the Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR) and the Department of Science and Technology (DST) that funded the GRACE network project to carry out this study. We thank the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) for providing the updated gridded temperature and rainfall datasets.

Funding

This research was funded by Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR) and Department of Science and Technology (DST) under the GRACE network project.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Indian Institute of Water Management, Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR), Chandrasekharpur, Bhubaneswar, Odisha, India

    Dileep Kumar Panda & Sanatan Pradhan

  2. Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine, CA, USA

    Amir AghaKouchak

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  1. Dileep Kumar Panda
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Contributions

DKP conceptualized the background research and designed the study with input from SP and AA. DKP collected and analysed the data. All authors discussed the results and commented on the initial manuscript written by DKP.

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Correspondence to Dileep Kumar Panda.

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Panda, D.K., Pradhan, S. & AghaKouchak, A. Surface drying impacts hot extremes in India: unravelling the exceptional 2010 and 2016 hot events. Clim Dyn 60, 3785–3800 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06536-2

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