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Assessment of the RegCM4-CORDEX-CORE performance in simulating cyclones affecting the western coast of South America

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Abstract

In this study, we assess the performance of the Regional Climate Model version 4 (RegCM4) in simulating the climatology of the cyclones near the west coast of South America. The synoptic evolution and seasonality of these systems are thoroughly investigated. The analyses are based on four simulations from the CORDEX-CORE Southern America (SA) domain, at 0.25° of horizontal resolution: one driven by ERA-Interim and three driven by different GCMs. The reference dataset is represented by ERA5. Cyclones were detected by an objective scheme in the period 1995–2005 and classified in three different classes: (i) Coastal Lows (CLs) and cyclones affecting the coast (CAC) (ii) crossing and (iii) not crossing the Andes. In general, RegCM4 is able to reproduce the climatology of cyclones affecting the western coast of SA. In particular: (i) CLs are shown to be more frequent in austral summer although their frequency is underestimated by the simulations in this season; (ii) CAC not crossing the Andes represent 76% of all CAC and are more frequent in winter, with simulation underestimating their frequency by ~ 22% due to the differences in the simulated upper-level jets, which tend to get weaker (by ~ 5–10 m s− 1) northwards of 30°S; (iii) the frequency of CAC crossing the Andes tends to be overestimated mainly in winter, which is associated with the combination of the stronger upper-level jets and weaker SLP in the simulations, especially southwards of 40°S.

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Acknowledgements

This collaborative research is the product of a capacity building activity organized by CORDEX-WCRP to promote collaborative activities and networking and to enhance the capacity to document scientific research in Central America and the Caribbean, and South America with focus on specific regional climate phenomena (http://www.cima.fcen.uba.ar/cordex-2020/). The authors thank all the international centres that provided the datasets for this study and for the anonymous reviewers that made suggestions and comments to improve the quality of the paper. N.M.C, M.S.R, L.F.G., E.M.J. and R.P.R. thank CAPES, CNPq and PETROBRAS for the financial support. M.R. has been supported in this work by OGS and CINECA under HPC-TRES award number 2015-07 and by the project FAIRSEA (Fisheries in the Adriatic Region - a Shared Ecosystem. Approach) funded by the 2014 ‐ 2020 Interreg V‐A Italy ‐ Croatia CBC Programme (Standard project ID 10046951). M.L.Z. has been supported by the Chilean ANID Doctoral grant 21192178. L.F.T.R. has received funding support from FONDECYT through grant 1201742.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Instituto de Astronomia, Geofísica e Ciências Atmosféricas, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, SP, Brazil

    Natália Machado Crespo, Eduardo Marcos de Jesus & Rosmeri Porfírio da Rocha

  2. Instituto de Recursos Naturais, Universidade Federal de Itajubá, Itajubá, MG, Brazil

    Michelle Simões Reboita

  3. Departamento de Física e Meteorologia, Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade Estadual Paulista, Bauru, SP, Brazil

    Luiz Felippe Gozzo

  4. Earth System Physics, The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste, Italy

    José Abraham Torres-Alavez & Marco Reale

  5. Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland

    José Abraham Torres-Alavez

  6. Center for Climate and Resilience Research, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile

    Miguel Ángel Lagos-Zúñiga

  7. Advanced Mining Technology Center, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile

    Miguel Ángel Lagos-Zúñiga

  8. Civil Engineering Department, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile

    Miguel Ángel Lagos-Zúñiga

  9. Universidad de La Serena, La Serena, Chile

    Limbert Torrez-Rodriguez

  10. National Institute of Oceanography and Applied Geophysics-OGS, Trieste, Italy

    Marco Reale

Authors
  1. Natália Machado Crespo
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  2. Michelle Simões Reboita
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  8. Marco Reale
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  9. Rosmeri Porfírio da Rocha
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Contributions

All authors contributed to the study conception and design. Material preparation and data collection were performed by Natália Machado Crespo, Luiz Felippe Gozzo, Eduardo Marcos de Jesus, Miguel Ángel Lagos Zúñiga, José Abraham Torres Alavez and Limbert Fernando Torrez Rodriguez. The analyses were performed by Natália Machado Crespo, Michelle Simões Reboita and Luiz Felippe Gozzo. The first draft of the manuscript was written by Natália Machado Crespo, Michelle Simões Reboita, Luiz Felippe Gozzo, Miguel Ángel Lagos Zúñiga, Limbert Fernando Torrez Rodriguez and Marco Reale and all authors commented on previous versions of the manuscript. Rosmeri Porfirio da Rocha revised the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

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Crespo, N.M., Reboita, M.S., Gozzo, L.F. et al. Assessment of the RegCM4-CORDEX-CORE performance in simulating cyclones affecting the western coast of South America. Clim Dyn 60, 2041–2059 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06419-6

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