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Coherent variations of tropical cyclogenesis over the North Pacific and North Atlantic

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Abstract

The present study investigates the relationship of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis among the western North Pacific (WNP), eastern North Pacific (ENP), and tropical North Atlantic Ocean (TNA) during July–October (JASO) from 1979 to 2019. A coherent interannual variation is found for TC genesis among the southeastern part of the WNP (SEW for brevity), ENP and TNA. When there are more TCs generated over the SEW, TC geneses are more than normal over the ENP, but less than normal over the TNA. Correlation analysis shows there is a significant positive (negative) relationship between the SEW/ENP (TNA) TC genesis and a tripole zonal sea surface temperatures (SST) anomaly distribution among the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, western Pacific and tropical Atlantic Ocean. The zonal tripole SST anomalies provide favorable genesis potential index (GPI) anomalies for TC genesis over the SEW and ENP, but unfavorable GPI anomalies over the TNA. The diagnoses display that the absolute vorticity has the greatest contribution and the contributions of the relative humidity and vertical wind shear terms are secondary to GPI anomalies over the SEW. The positive GPI anomalies are mainly due to a positive contribution of the vertical wind shear and potential intensity over the ENP. The major term contributing to the negative GPI anomalies is the vertical wind shear over the TNA. This study may help to improve seasonal prediction of the TC genesis over the WNP, ENP and TNA.

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Data availability statement

The data that support the findings of this study are openly available. The IBTrACS data were obtained from http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/ibtracs/index.php. The ERA5 data set was obtained from https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/cdsapp#!/dataset/reanalysis-era5-pressure-levels?tab=form. The GPCP was obtained http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/.

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Acknowledgements

We appreciate the comments of two anonymous reviewers and the editor.

Funding

This study is supported by National Key R&D Program of China (2018YFA0605604), the Open Grants of the State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather (Grant 2022LASW-B03) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grants 41875057 and 41505048) and supported by State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography, South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences (Project No. LTO2203).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Center for Monsoon System Research, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

    Xi Cao & Xiaoqing Lan

  2. State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China

    Xi Cao & Jing Xu

  3. School of Earth Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, China

    Renguang Wu

  4. National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China

    Ying Sun

  5. International Laboratory on Climate and Environment Change and Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China

    Mingyu Bi

  6. Tongji Zhejiang College, Jiaxing, Zhejiang, China

    Yifeng Dai

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  1. Xi Cao
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Correspondence to Xi Cao.

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Cao, X., Wu, R., Xu, J. et al. Coherent variations of tropical cyclogenesis over the North Pacific and North Atlantic. Clim Dyn 60, 1385–1396 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06381-3

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