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Evaluation of precipitation and its time series components in CMIP6 over the Yellow River Basin

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Abstract

Precipitation is a main part of the regional hydrological cycle, and global warming affects the hydrological cycle because regional precipitation is impacted by mechanistic changes in the hydrological cycle under global warming. This study presents an exploration of the composition variation characteristics of precipitation time series under global climate change. Twelve CMIP6 models were used to forecast precipitation changes in the Yellow River Basin (YRB). Climatic Research Unit (CRU) data were applied in the analysis of historical precipitation. Trend analysis, precipitation bias correction, and Fourier functions were used to analyze the future precipitation change characteristics. Our results showed that the IPSL-CM6A-LR and EC-Earth3-CC models had excellent performances in simulating precipitation in the YRB. Most CMIP6 models showed that precipitation under the SSP5-8.5 scenario had a higher increasing trend and was higher than that under the SSP2-4.5 scenario. The multimodel ensemble means (MEM) of CMIP6 precipitation showed that the future trend and stochastic component of precipitation had a higher degree of contribution than the historical trend and stochastic component of precipitation. However, the future periodic component of precipitation had a lower degree of contribution than the historical component. Most models showed that the degree of contribution of the periodic component of precipitation in Period IV (2015–2057) was higher than that in Period V (2058–2100). Most models showed similar degrees of contribution in Period I (1901–1938), Period II (1939–1976), and Period III (1977–2014). However, the degree of contribution of the stochastic component in 2058–2100 was lower than that in 2015–2057. This study improves the understanding of future precipitation change characteristics and provides a reference for disaster prevention and mitigation in the YRB.

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Data availability

The observed precipitation data are available at http://data.cma.cn/, the CRU TS4.05 precipitation data are available at http://climexp.knmi.nl/select.cgi?id=someone@somewhere&field=cru4_pre, the CMIP6 data are available at https://esgf-node.llnl.gov.

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Acknowledgements

This study was funded by major projects of a high-resolution Earth observation system (80-H30G03-9001-20/22). This subtopic (80-H30G03-9001-20/22) was from the special scientific research projects (civil part) of the high-resolution Earth observation system. This study was also funded by the Postdoctoral Research and Development Project of Yellow River Engineering Consulting Co., Ltd. (2020BSHZL06), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 51879223), the 111 Project (Grant No. B12007), and the National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant No. 2016YFC0400201). Here, I would like to especially thank Ms. Zhu for her company because my time with her was very happy. Junzhen Zhu is a kind and lovely girl like an angel. I hope we will have a happy life forever.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Yellow River Engineering Consulting Co., Ltd., No. 109 Jinshui Road, Zhengzhou, 450003, Henan, People’s Republic of China

    Yibo Ding, Chengzhen Jiang & Xuecai Zhang

  2. State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Integrated Surface Water-Groundwater Pollution Control, School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen, 518055, People’s Republic of China

    Zhaoqiang Zhou & Haiyun Shi

  3. School of Engineering, The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, 2000, Australia

    Tianao Gao

  4. Tongyuan Water Resources Science Technology Co., Ltd., Jinan, 250101, People’s Republic of China

    Shurong Wang

  5. College of Water Resources and Architectural Engineering, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, 712100, People’s Republic of China

    Huanjie Cai

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  1. Yibo Ding
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  3. Zhaoqiang Zhou
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Ding, Y., Jiang, C., Zhou, Z. et al. Evaluation of precipitation and its time series components in CMIP6 over the Yellow River Basin. Clim Dyn 60, 1203–1223 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06379-x

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