Abstract
The multivariate empirical orthogonal function (MV-EOF) method is conducted on June 500 hPa geopotential height and air temperature over the active region of the Northeast China cold vortex (NCCV). Two leading modes are identified. The second leading mode effectively characterizes the different positions of the NCCV while the first leading mode represents the NCCV intensity on monthly time scale. Noticeable NCCV is observed in relative southern region with the second mode in its positive phase (the southward NCCV mode, SCVM), the precipitation in June and July both significantly increases in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River but decreases from the Korean Peninsula to southern Japan. The NCCV locates north of 60°N with the negative phase (the northward NCCV mode, NCVM), the precipitation is suppressed from the lower reaches of the Yangtze River to the Japan Island but excessive from the Bohai Bay to the Korean Peninsula. Monthly precipitation forecast is greatly improved when the NCCV position is additionally considered. For SCVM, approximately 50% of the precipitation could be forecasted in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River with an increase of 10% (32%) in June (July) compared with that without NCCV position. For NCVM, the forecasted precipitation could explain 65% (36%) variance of the observation in June (July) over the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. Further analysis shows that the NCVM is intimately associated with central Pacific El Niño events while the SCVM may be modulated by the abnormally reduced sea ice melt amount from spring to summer.
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07 July 2022
A Correction to this paper has been published: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06400-3
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This work was supported by the National Nature Science Foundation of China (42088101, 42125501).
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Xu, S., Qi, L. Critical influence of the Northeast cold vortex in different positions on precipitation. Clim Dyn 60, 867–881 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06365-3
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06365-3