Abstract
This study analyzes the re-analysis and model simulations to determine changes in circulation features for submonthly (6 − 20 days) wave patterns and tropical cyclones (TCs) in the western North Pacific (WNP) under global warming. The High Resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM) that can produce tropical cyclones is adopted to perform present (1979 − 2008) and future (2075 − 2100) simulations under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenarios. In the present simulation, the wave pattern is effectively simulated in the WNP. However, in the future simulation, the monsoon trough is weakened and fewer cases are detected. The intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) mostly exhibits a westward propagation tendency in the present simulation but northward movement tendency in the future simulation. Although the background seasonal fields are weakened in the future, the growth rate of the submonthly wave pattern in the westerly phase of the ISO is enhanced in the future simulation. A kinetic energy analysis reveals that the barotropic conversion will supply more kinetic energy from the background flow to the wave pattern in the future westerly phase. This enhancement from barotropic conversion is attributable to the northward displacement of the monsoon trough caused by the northward propagating ISO; this northward monsoon trough displacement and the northwest − southeast-oriented submonthly perturbations and TCs are more strongly coupled. Therefore, the submonthly cases in the westerly phase of the future simulation are unique because of the higher efficiency of kinetic energy transfer from the background flow to submonthly perturbations which provides a more favorable environment for stronger cases in the future westerly phase.
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Data availability
NCEP re-analyses are available from the website of Physical Science Lab, NCEP, and the HiRAM model simulations availability should be directed to Prof. Huang-Hsiung Hsu at hhhsu@gate.sinica.edu.tw.
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Acknowledgements
The authors thank the Physical Science Lab, NOAA for providing the NCEP re-analysis data. The streamfunction and HiRAM simulations are computed by Mr. Hsin-Chien Liang from the Climate Modeling Group at the Research Center for Environmental Changes (led by Prof. Huang-Hsiung Hsu) in Academia Sinica. Comments from two anonymous reviewers improve the quality of the manuscript and the authors thank them for pointing out the procedures that need clarifying. The support by the Ministry of Science and Technology, Taiwan (grant MOST 110-2111-M-017-001 issued to Dr. Ken-Chung Ko) is also acknowledged. Model simulations are conducted at the National Center of High-Performance Computing in Taiwan.
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The Ministry of Science and Technology, Taiwan (grant MOST 110-2111-M-017-001 issued to Dr. Ken-Chung Ko).
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Ko, KC., Hsu, HH. & Liu, JH. Impact of global warming on summertime submonthly wave patterns and tropical cyclone activity in the western North Pacific. Clim Dyn 59, 3535–3554 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06281-6
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06281-6