Abstract
This study investigated the joint influence of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and Indian Ocean basin mode (IOBM) on the tropical cyclone (TC) occurrence frequency over the western North Pacific (WNP). The QBO can exert an additional modulating effect on the negative correlation between the IOBM and TC occurrence frequency, which suggests further suppressive effects on TC activities. The present study revealed that the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) was notably enhanced and extended southwestward in the warm IOBM-west phase of the QBO (QBOW) cases. Accordingly, suppressed convection, anticyclonic circulation anomalies, and weakened monsoon troughs all led to a decrease in TC genesis and northwestward-moving TCs. Additionally, the warm IOBM and QBOW jointly restricted energy supply to TCs, thus further weakening TC intensity. Furthermore, this research selected a case (2017) to demonstrate the QBOW modulation in a moderate IOBM case. Analysis verified that the combined effect of the QBOW and warm IOBM could explain approximately 56.4% of the observed anomalies, and the QBOW played a critical role in the reduction in TC occurrences in 2017. With fewer TCs generated in the key region (10°–20° N, 140° E–160° E), TC occurrence in 2017 exhibited a separated distribution, and few TCs followed northwestward paths. Consequently, disaster prevention and mitigation efforts should consider westward-moving TCs in warm IOBM-QBOW coupled years.
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Acknowledgements
This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41721004), and the State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography (South China Sea Institute of Oceanology Chinese Academy of Sciences) (Grant LTO2104). The authors are grateful for the comments and suggestions provided by the editor and anonymous reviewers.
Funding
This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41721004), and the State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography (South China Sea Institute of Oceanology Chinese Academy of Sciences) (Grant LTO2104).
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Huangfu, J., Tang, Y., Wang, L. et al. Joint influence of the quasi-biennial oscillation and Indian Ocean basin mode on tropical cyclone occurrence frequency over the western North Pacific. Clim Dyn 59, 3439–3449 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06276-3
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06276-3