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Atmosphere-driven cold SST biases over the western North Pacific in the GloSea5 seasonal forecast system

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Abstract

The predictability of the sea surface temperature (SST) in seasonal forecast systems is crucial for accurate seasonal predictions. In this study, we evaluated the prediction of SST in the Global Seasonal forecast system version 5 (GloSea5) hindcast, particularly focusing on the western North Pacific (WNP), where the SST can modify atmospheric convection and the East Asian weather. GloSea5 has a cold SST bias in the WNP that grows over at least 7 months. The bias originates from the surface net heat flux. At the beginning of model integration, the ocean receives excessive heat from the atmosphere because of the predominant positive bias in the downward shortwave radiation (SW), which rapidly decreased within a few days as cloud cover builds. Then, the negative bias in the latent heat (LH) flux increases over time and induces a negative bias in the surface net heat flux. Although the magnitude of the negative bias in LH flux gradually decreases, it remains the most significant contributor to the negative bias in the net heat flux bias for more than 250 days. Uncoupled ocean model experiments showed that the ocean model is unlikely to be the primary source of the SST bias.

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Data Availability

The KMA GloSea5 hindcast was provided by the National Institute of Meteorological Sciences. Part of the hindcast, up to 60 days prediction, can be obtained online (http://apps.ecmwf.int/datasets/data/s2s/). The HadISST data were obtained freely from https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadisst/data/download.html. ERA-Interim data can be obtained freely from http://apps.ecmwf.int/datasets/data/interim_full_daily.

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Acknowledgements

The KMA GloSea5 hindcast was provided by the National Institute of Meteorological Sciences. Part of the hindcast, up to 60 days prediction, can be obtained online (http://apps.ecmwf.int/datasets/data/s2s/). The HadISST data were obtained freely from https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadisst/data/download.html. ERA-Interim data can be obtained freely from http://apps.ecmwf.int/datasets/data/interim_full_daily. This work was funded by the Korea Meteorological Administration Research and Development Program under Grant KMI (2020-01210).

Funding

This study was funded by the Korea Meteorological Administration Research and Development Program under Grant KMI (2020-01210).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Yonsei University, Seoul, South Korea

    Ajin Cho, Hajoon Song, Yong-Jin Tak & Soon-Il An

  2. Department of Environmental Marine Science, Hanyang University, Ansan, 15588, South Korea

    Sang-Wook Yeh

  3. Operational Systems Development Department, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Seogwipo, South Korea

    Sang-Min Lee, Hee-Sook Ji & Yu-Kyung Hyun

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  1. Ajin Cho
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Cho, A., Song, H., Tak, YJ. et al. Atmosphere-driven cold SST biases over the western North Pacific in the GloSea5 seasonal forecast system. Clim Dyn 59, 2571–2584 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06228-x

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