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Spatial patterns and possible mechanisms of precipitation changes in recent decades over and around the Tibetan Plateau in the context of intense warming and weakening winds

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Abstract

The Tibetan Plateau (TP) significantly affects its surroundings and the global climate through thermal and dynamic processes. Precipitation is a key driver of hydrological, meteorological, and ecological processes. In general, the precipitation over and around the TP displays a wetting trend over the past half century, with large spatial heterogeneity. However, the causes of such spatially variable trends in TP precipitation and the driving forces have not been well quantified. Here we investigate the spatial patterns of precipitation trends and their possible mechanisms, using ground-based observations from 132 CMA (China Meteorological Administration) stations (1970–2016) and CMFD (China Meteorological Forcing Dataset) reanalysis data (1980–2016) over and around the TP. The major findings are: (1) Pronounced spatial patterns of precipitation changes (increasing in inner TP and decreasing for regions around the TP) are observed in both CMA and CMFD data. (2) Maximum precipitation decreases generally occurred in stations that experienced southwestern daily maximum winds. (3) Positive correlations between mean precipitation and temperature (or daily maximum winds) are obtained in clusters with maximum precipitation increase (decrease), which are further verified by the qualitative and quantitative analysis of the CMFD dataset. (4) Therefore, we suggest that intensified local recycling in a intense warming and hydrologically unbalanced environment has led to precipitation increases in central TP, whereas precipitation decreases in areas bordering the TP may be the result of weakening Indian monsoon.

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Acknowledgements

This research was funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 42071090, 41701080, 91747201, 41771043, 41530748, 41571033) and the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (XDA19070301 and XDA20060202). We thank the China Meteorological Administration (CMA, http://data.cma.cn/) and National Tibetan Plateau Data Center (China Meteorological Forcing Dataset, CMFD, http://data.tpdc.ac.cn) for access to the data used in this analysis. The data that support the findings of this study are available from the CMA (http://data.cma.cn/) and the CMFD (http://data.tpdc.ac.cn).

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  1. State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System, Resources and Environment (TPESRE), Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China

    Xiaoyu Guo

  2. Motuo Observation & Research Center for Earth Landscape and Earth Systems, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China

    Xiaoyu Guo

  3. Institute of International Rivers and Eco-Security, Yunnan University, Kunming, 650500, China

    Lide Tian

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Guo, X., Tian, L. Spatial patterns and possible mechanisms of precipitation changes in recent decades over and around the Tibetan Plateau in the context of intense warming and weakening winds. Clim Dyn 59, 2081–2102 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06197-1

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